Weekly Indicators: if we're not in a recession now, ECRI was wrong edition

  - by New Deal democrat Tomorrow begins July, meaning that we have arrived at midyear, the point by which ECRI predicted we would enter a new recession.  While we don't have the June data, as of May real income, payrolls, and real retail sales continued to rise, although retail sales are below their March peak.  Industrial production was off slightly in May from its post recession peak in April.In monthly data released last week, new home sales continued their recent improvement, making a 2 year high.  The Case-Shiller index...

The Stench of Corruption and Greed Overwhelms Britain's Financial Services Industry

Britain's tarnished financial services industry and banking sector seems intent on bringing about its own self destruction. Over the years there has been a litany of scandals eg:- endowment mis-selling- subprime mortgages- PPI mis-selling- LIBOR fraud- NatWest computer meltdown - Northern Rock, RBS etc etc to name but a few However, it seems that the industry is determined to add to its list of self inflicted shame and dishonour. Step forward the usual suspects ie; Barclays (a familiar name), HSBC, Lloyds and RBS which have all admitted to mis-selling...

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Diamonds Aren't Forever!

Despite saying that he won't resign, the smart money is on Bob Diamond resigning from Barclays within a matter of da...

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It's Long Weekend Time

Hey allThis is Bonddad.  I'm taking a long weekend this weekend (actually, my allergies kicked-up and now I have a really annoying head and chest cold).So -- NDD will be here on Saturday and I'll be back on Mond...

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Holy Cow -- The SC Upheld the ACA

I have to admit, I and NDD had a post ready to go up in the event the court over-turned the ACA.  However, that is not necessary for obvious reasons.As an aside, I think that Roberts voted for the act, largely because he was concerned about the Supreme Court's stature in the US as a whole.  Had the ACA been voted down, the court would have been seen as far more partisan -- and therefore less relevant and important.  I also think he saw the political landscape as one where there was no hope for health reform should the law be voted...

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Question For The British Bankers Association

Why are you only now "shocked" at the revelations about LIBOR being rigged, when over three years ago Zerohedge wrote the following?"Everyone knows there is something very screwy about LIBOR...."You could have asked your board to investigate at the time, the board is after all rather well placed to know what is going on with LIBOR as it contains...

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Morning Market Analysis

The industrial metals ETF has been dropping since the beginning of March, falling from a level of 21.5 to 17.5 -- a drop of nearly 18.6%.  Also note that no price level seems to be providing any technical support and that the EMAs are using resistance rather than support.  Momentum is weak and negative and the relative prices are weak as...

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Barclays Shares Collapse

Barclays shares are now down 10%.This is the largest fall in nearly a year.I wonder where bottom ...

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Osborne's Statement on Barclays Fraud

I see that the Treasury state that George Osborne is to make a statement on the Barclays fraudulent manipulation of LIBOR:"HM Treasury ‏@hmtreasury The Chancellor will be making a statement to Parliament at around 1215 about the FSA investigation into bank borrowing rates, known as LIBOR"You will observe that they have politely avoided using the word "fraud".Whilst the avoidance of the word "fraud" may suit the sensibilities of those in Whitehall I suspect that, once people who owe Barclays money (eg mortgages, personal...

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Some Basic Health Care Facts

Tomorrow we should hear from the Supreme Court regarding health care.  Health care is by far the largest part of the US economy, totaling about 15%.  It's the only segment of the economy to continually add jobs over the last few years, largely because of the aging US population.  And the system to paying for that is beyond broken.The individual mandate that is causing all the hoopla was first proposed by the Heritage Foundation in 1989.  It was also part of the Republicans response to the Clinton health initiative in 1994. ...

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What's Up With Australia?

From the Conference Board:The Conference Board LEI for Australia fell sharply in April led by a large decline in building approvals (April’s significant drop in the housing indicator was mainly due to a temporary interruption in approval processing), and there were downward revisions to the past few months as actual data for sales to inventories ratio*...

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Housing and Second Half Growth

  - by New Deal democratAlthough the economy has obviously slowed down in the last 3 months, and I expect the data to continue to look near-recessionary for about a couple of months more, I continue to believe we will have a rebound in the second half of this year.The biggest reason for expecting a positive jolt to the economy comes from the least...

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Barclays Fined $450M for Libor Manipulation - Dude I Owe You Big Time!

Barclays will pay at least $450M to US and British authorities to settle a probe into the manipulation of Libor.Page 15 FSA Report:"On 26 October 2006, an external trader made a request for a lower three month US dollar LIBOR submission. The external trader stated in an email to Trader G at Barclays “If it comes in unchanged I’m a dead man”. Trader G responded that he would “have a chat”. Barclays’ submission on that day for three month US dollar LIBOR was half a basis point lower than the day before, rather than being unchanged. The...

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Barclays Rigs Libor

Advice from Zerohedge to anyone with a Barclays variable rate mortgage between 2005 and now:"Our advice to anyone who had an adjustable rate mortgage in the period between 2005 and today: sue the living feces out of Barclays, and all other banks who crawl out of the woodwork with purported settlements. Because due to their undisputed mark manipulation, it is absolutely safe to say that ARMs, which rely on Libor for interest rate formation, were grossly manipulated by the same idiot traders who left written evidence of their manipulation...

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Greece Will Run Out of Money By Mid July

Source @Pawelmor...

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Morning Market Analysis; Asia Treading Water

The weekly chart of the Chinese market shows that -- although prices are now below the 200 day EMA -- they have steadied above the 32 price level for the last month.  However, the EMAs are acting as technical resistance, momentum is dropping, money is flowing out of the market and volatility is up.  The key here is for prices to hold the...

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Question For NatWest and Stephen Hester

Where's my mon...

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Bonddad Linkfest

GOP clash looms over tax bill (The Hill)How Republicans made it possible to vote against the mandate (WaPo)Chicago Fed national activity index declines (Chicago Fed)New home sales increase in May (CR)China's LEIs increase (Conference Board)Weather casts doubt on crop forecasts (FT)Money raised on equity markets at a 7 year low (FT)Cyprus requests a bailout (FT)...

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How Low Will Oil Fall?

The daily chart is very bearish.  Let's start with the price section and move outward.1.) Prices have been dropping for two months.  We see a gradual, continual sell-off in May, followed by a price consolidation in June.  Prices traded between 82.5 and 85 for the first few weeks of the month, but have moved a touch lower since. ...

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Why Would A Bad Situation in Europe Hurt the US?

Something that we really haven't touched on is why does the EU situation hurt the US?  After all -- they're over there, and we're over here.  Doesn't the Atlantic provide any kind of buffer for the situation?No.  Here's why:1.) One of the primary reasons for the formation of the EU was to create a common market for the European continent.  That is now the second largest economic region in the world, trailing only the US in terms of size.  And that block has now been in existence for the last 10+ years, meaning it has become...

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Greek Government Disintegrates

Having lost its Finance Minister the Greek government, of less than a week, has now lost its Deputy Minister for Shipping (Vernikos) who has resigned this afterno...

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Greece Names New Finance Minister

With the resignation of Vassilis Rapanos the yet to be sworn in Greek Finance Minister, from his hospital bed on Monday, Greece's new Finance Minister has been named as Yannis Stournaras (the man who led Greece into the Euro using fraudulent data).It is assumed that he will be able to remain in office at least long enough to be sworn in, before being...

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Case Shiller index shows more evidence housing prices have bottomed

  -  by New Deal democratThis morning's Case Shiller report of repeat home sales is more evidence that housing prices have already bottomed.  Unlike most commentary, which inexplicably focuses on the non-seasonally adjusted index, I focus on the seasonally adjusted data.  So long as those adjustments are fair, the month over...

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Morning Market Analysis

The five minute chart shows the overall price action for the markets yesterday.  Prices gapped lower at the open and moved lower all morning.  However, prices found their bottom around noon and then traded sideways for the remainder of the day.  Notice there were two small rally attempts -- one about 1:300 and one a little after 3:00. ...

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NatWest's Death March To Self Destruction II

Day 8 of NatWest's ongoing death march, and NatWest sent the following email to their hapless customers this morning at around 07:48:"Dear ****,We know that our current technical issues may still be impacting a number of our customers as we work to clear the backlog. To make it easier for our customers experiencing difficulties accessing cash we...

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Bonddad Linkfest

Transportation bill again up for extension (CNN)The source of the global economic stalemate (WaPo)How policy has contributed to the great divide (WaPo)11 facts about the ACA (Wonk Blog)Legal scholars think mandate valid (BB)Everything you need to know about the SC and ACA (Wonk Blog)Developing economies currencies taking a big hit (...

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What Krugman Said

It's taken me a very long time to get my head around the idea of the "liquidity trap" -- and frankly, I'm not sure I still get the idea completely.  However, this is a very lucid explanation of what's involved from Krugman:Now, if people are borrowing, other people must be lending. What induced the necessary lending? Higher real interest rates, which encouraged “patient” economic agents to spend less than their incomes while the impatient spent more.OK, so that’s what happens when an economy is engaged in increased leveraging. Then something...

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Another Week of Negative News

Once again, we had a week where the overall economic news was, at best, bad.Consider the following:Australian Leading Index declines:The Conference Board LEI for Australia fell sharply in April led by a large decline in building approvals (April’s significant drop in the housing indicator was mainly due to a temporary interruption in approval processing), and there were downward revisions to the past few months as actual data for sales to inventories ratio* and gross operating surplus* for the first quarter of 2012 became available. With this...

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Morning Market Analysis

Let's start with a look at the macro environment.  Stocks are selling off.  Developing markets are in bear markets.  Commodities are dropping, but treasuries are rallying.  This is the classic look of a slowing economy.  Traders are selling stocks because of the degradation in the overall macro environment.  They're selling...

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NatWest's Death March To Self Destruction

As we enter day 7 of NatWest's technical meltdown and its death march to self destruction, the hapless and hopeless bank has warned its 17 million customers that the problems may well last for a few more days.Neither the customers nor the financial regulators are particularity impressed with NatWest's handling of this. Andrew Tyrie, the chairman of the Commons Treasury select committee, is quoted by the Telegraph: “It seems scarcely credible that something like this, which has caused problems for hundreds of thousands of people, could...

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What's you favorite summer drink?

 - by New Deal democratHere's a question for a summer Sunday:  what is your favorite summertime beverage, alcoholic or not?Last summer I started working on concocting my perfect summer libation.  I know I want lime, mint, vodka, and ice, but I don't want it overly sweet (so not a mojito), and I don't want a bitter aftertaste (so not a vodka and tonic).  I've been experimenting so far with seltzer water, ginger ale, peppermint schnapps, and creme de menthe among other things, but still haven't found just the right combination.Of...

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NatWest Apologises

NatWest sent the following email to its customers this morning at 03:36:"Dear *****, We apologise to all of our customers who have been affected by our current technical issues. These resulted in money credited to customers accounts overnight not appearing in their balances as it should. This problem is strictly of a technical nature, we have fixed...

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Weekly Indicators: America, the world's least worst economy edition

  - by New Deal democratThe monthly data released this past week was much better than last week's.  Housing permits rose to a new 3+ year high, over 250,000 higher than their all time low in 2009.  This boosted the index of Leading Economic Indicators to +0.3.  Existing home sales fell slightly.  The very erratic Philly Fed index plunged to -16.6 (it is worth remembering that 9 months ago it plummeted below -30 before rebounding).The high frequency weekly indicators remained generally positive, but the recent comparative...

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