IMF Puts Greek Visit on Hold

The IMF has stated that it will not visit Greece, to review its financial situation, until after the next round of elections on 17th June. This means that the IMF will not be putting up anymore funding for Greece, if at all, until after it has completed its review.

The IMF, for good measure, then kicked the ball back to the ECB stating that the ECB has room for further aiding Greece.

In the meantime Greece may or may not run out of money.

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Greeks To Have Their Cake and Eat It?

It seems that, according to The Slog, despite all public statement to the contrary Berlin (ie Chancellor Merkel) has drawn up a plan to keep Greece in the Eurozone at all costs:

"Merkel has decided to go all out for her Fiskal Pakt and keep France on board by bribing Greece to vote yes to the Eurozone and the Troika."

In other words the Greeks will have their cake and eat it.

We shall see!

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Troika Cancels Greek Inspection

The Troika has cancelled its Greek inspection visit planned for mid May.

It has not made any new appointments, and is awaiting political developments in Greece (ie the next election which will determine whether Greece leaves or stays in the Euro).

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Troika Visit Ireland

"Lucky" Ireland is on the receiving end of the sixth visit of Troika inspectors.

Officials from the International Monetary Fund, the EU Commission and the European Central Bank have begun their 10 day long inspection to see how Ireland is performing under the bailout programmes

The Irish Times reports that promissory notes would be a central focus, as the issue of restructuring of the Euro30BN promissory note issued primarily to Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide has yet to be resolved.

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Greece's 38 Steps

Here, courtesy of the FT, is a link to the Troika evaluation of the 38 items that needed to be completed by Greece (prior to the second bailout being handed over), and given to Athens two weeks ago:

- The 38 Steps

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Boom! - Greek Bailout Consigned To The Flames

It seems that, in the interests of their Eurozone overlords, the Greek government is going to postpone the April elections.

Apparently implementing the austerity measures required by the Eurozone is taking up so much time, that the "annoying" and time consuming matter of "democracy" has to be placed on the backburner.

Let me be perfectly clear, irrespective of whether the austerity programme had a cat's chance in hell of succeeding (which it didn't), by stifling the democratic process the unelected technocrat Prime Minister has now guaranteed that the social unrest caused by this foolish decision will consign the bailout and Greece to the flames.

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Greek Problem Sorted - LOL!

Some of the media are happily pumping the Eurozone line that the Greek problem is sorted, and that now the second bailout of Euro130BN has been agreed (after a marathon 13 hour session of finance ministers) we can all move on.

Not quite, aside from the fact that the Greek economy is sunk and that borrowing money to pay off debt will not resolve this problem; the private bondholders (sans ECB, which protected itself by sleight of hand last week) will have to take a NPV haircut of 74%.

Institute for International Finance (IIF) crisis resolution official Jean Lemierre was only told of the size of the haircut this morning.

The "party line" is that the creditors will voluntarily accept his haircut. The reality is that there will be a few who refuse to have their "assets" further written down, as such Greece will have to enforce the Collective Action Clauses (CAC) and force the recalcitrant bondholders to accept the 74% haircut (this of course is a default event).

Aside form that, all Greece has to do is to reduce its debt from 160%to 120.5% of GDP in 2020.

"Easy"!!!!

LOL!

This is not over, by any stretch of the imagination.

Here is the Sustainability Analysis by the Troika dated 15 February (as you can see, this will not work).

Greek Sustainability Proposal

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Zen Like Calm

A mood of "Zen like calm" appears to have settled upon the Greek bailout crisis. Ahead of Monday's Eurozone vote on the second bailout, the media reports that finance ministers apparently will approve the deal.

This despite the fact that Greece's public debt will fall to 129% of GDP The target set by the Troika being 120%).

As to whether this mood of calm continues to pervade during the weekend and on Monday; we shall see, this may just be the calm before the storm.

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Greece Bailout Decision Delayed - Again!

Unsurprisingly, amid the increasingly tetchy "diplomatic" brickbats being lobbed between Greece and the Eurozone, yesterday's three-hour teleconference between Eurozone finance ministers did not resolve the issues regarding the second bailout.

The decision on whether to grant a second bailout (pre or post election, or even at all) has been postponed to at least Monday next week, pending further clarification from Greece as to how they will implement the austerity package and the timetable for doing so.

Don't hold your breath!

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Playing Politics With People's Lives II

Earlier today I wrote the following:

"Samaras, continuing to play politics for the benefit of the domestic audience, will (if his spokesman is to be believed) sign and send the commitment within 24 hours.

Playing politics may be all very well sometimes, unfortunately in this particular case he and others are playing politics with people's lives."

Unfortunately it is not just Greek politicians who play politics, but Greece's paymasters in the Eurozone.

It appears, according to leaks emanating from the Eurozone bunker, that today's finance ministers' teleconference will discuss delaying the Greek bailout until after the results of the April election.

Although a bridging loan will probably be provided, ministers intend to withhold the full bailout until Greece votes in favour of austerity.

This of course is naked political blackmailing of a sovereign state by an unelected body, ie dictatorship by the back door.

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Athens Burns Whilst Berlin Fiddles

Amid scenes of chaos, disorder, petrol bombs and destruction in the streets of Athens, the Greek parliament by a vote of 199-74 passed the austerity bill that, in theory, will give Greece access to the long awaited second bailout.

However, the German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble added fuel to the flames by telling the Welt am Sonntag newspaper: 

 

"The promises from Greece aren't enough for us any more.

Greece needs to do its own homework to become competitive whether that happens in conjunction with a new rescue programme or by another route that we actually don't want to take."

The German Economy Minister, Philipp Roesler, expressed a degree of scepticism about whether the vote was enough and said

"It is good that the laws were passed and with a large majority but what counts now is the implementation of structural reforms.
 

We have gone a step in the right direction, but we are still a long way from the goal.

 

We have to see the troika report. They will assess whether the measures are sufficient to assure Greece's debt sustainability.
We want to see what comes after the legislative process because the legislative process is one thing, implementation is another."


Bailout or not, most now consider that it is only a matter of time before Greece exits the Eurozone; contingency plans for a return to the Drachma have already been made (its is indeed quite possible that the printing presses are already running).

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Greek Police Union Seeks Arrest Warrants for EU, ECB Officials

Bloomberg reports the following:

"The Greek police officers’ union called for arrest warrants to be issued for European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund officials negotiating austerity measures for a national debt bailout. 

The Greek Federation of Police Officers said in a published letter it will ask for arrest warrants for former European Commission representative Servaas Deroose, the IMF’s Poul Thomsen and the ECB’s Klaus Masuch. Under Greek law, arrest warrants must be issued by an appellate court prosecutor, a police spokesman in Athens said today, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with official regulations. 

“We warn you that we will demand, as legal representatives of the Greek police according to Greek law, that warrants for your arrest are immediately issued,” according to the letter published on the union’s website. 

The police union accuses officials of the so-called troika -- which is negotiating austerity measures in Greece in exchange for a second bailout -- of extortion, promoting the elimination of Greece’s democracy and national sovereignty and insulting the country."

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Greek "Deal" Starts To Unravel

My earlier cynicism of an hour ago about the alleged Greek "deal" seems to be well founded.

Aside from the fact that holes are being picked in the announcement from Greece by all and sundry, and questions being raised by the IMF et al, news has just come in that Greek deputy labour minister Koutsoukos has just resigned over this.

Additionally, German Finance Minister Schauble says that the Greek 'deal' does not yet meet EU expectations:

"More work needed."

Oh and let's not forget the 48 hour strike starting tomorrow.

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Greece Accepts The Treaty of Versailles

In a volte farce (sic) Greece has now told the ECB that its political parties have now agreed the Troika's "Treaty of Versailles".

However, the ECB is not saying whether it accepts the deal.

Sorry for sounding a tad cynical over this, but this sudden change of heart does not ring true. There is also the annoying problem (which some in the mainstream media seem to have forgotten) that Papademos revised his budget targets, and only informed the Troika at 6am this morning, as such the Troika will have to rework their calculations to see if the bailout actually works.

Here is the draft of the Troika's plan for Greece before they rework it.

Oh and by the way, there is still the none too small matter of the Greek parliament having to endorse this.

Here is the text of the official statement (short on details and rather woolly) from the Prime Minister's Office :

The agreement with the troika has been completed

February nine, 2012 | Categories: Articles and Statements , Prime Minister

Prime Minister's Press Office
Thursday, February 9, 2012
The government's discussions with the troika were concluded successfully this morning on the issue which had remained open for further elaboration. The political leaders have agreed on the result of these discussions.
Thus there is general agreement on the content of the new program, in view also of this evening's Eurogroup meeting. This program accompanies the new loan agreement to finance Greece with 130 billion euro.

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Juncker's Views on Democracy

As the people of Greece prepare to go on 48 hour strike, and protest in the streets about the imposition of an EU protectorate, they may well care to reflect on the words of Jean-Claude Juncker (President of The Euro Group).

In 2000 (some twelve years ago) he gave an interview to Der Spiegel. 

Here is an extract of what he said:

"We decide on something, then put in the room and wait a while to see what happens," the prime minister of tiny Luxembourg reveals the tricks to which he encouraged the leaders of the EU in European politics. 

"If there is then no bluster and no uprisings, because most people do not know what has been decided, then we go on -. Step by step until it no return"

Ever get the feeling you were conned?

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Greece Rejects Treaty of Versailles

Unsurprisingly the much hyped, much delayed, meeting yesterday between Greek Prime Minister Papademos and leaders of those parties that are propping up his government failed to agree to the Troika's "Treaty of Versailles".

One sticking point , apparently, was the demand for a reduction in pensions. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos heads for Brussels today empty handed.

Another problem is that Papademos has revised his budget targets and only informed the Troika at 6am.

Eurozone officials say that the deadline for Greece agreeing to the Troika's demands is 15 February (so that the necessary paperwork can be completed). Greece, on the other hand, claims that it has been given 15 days to sort this out.

How "ironic", but not surprising, that the Eurozone and Greece cannot even agree on the new "deadline"!

Well, irrespective of which "deadline" is the real "deadline", no one actually believes that either "deadline" will be met.

Here is the draft of the Troika's plan for Greece.

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Translating The New Treaty of Versailles

As I noted earlier today, the new Treaty of Versailles (being imposed on Greece) is in English not Greek.

At least one Greek politician has stood up and demanded that it be translated into Greek.

Georgios Karatzaferis a member of the Hellenic Parliament, and president of the Popular Orthodox Rally, wont go to meeting until draft is translated into Greek.

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The New Treaty of Versailles

Let us be clear that the 50 page "agreement" (written in English) that the Greek political establishment has to agree, in order to receive Euro 130BN, will (if it is accepted) have the same consequences for Greece as the Treaty of Versailles did for the Weimer Republic.

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The Fake Papademos Meeting - Greece To Exit Euro

Yesterday, amid a welter of political theatrics and meeting postponements, I wrote the following:

"Oh, if anyone actually cares anymore, the Papademos meeting (which of of course is pointless without a draft of the document to be "agreed") has been postponed again.

Latest estimate for them meeting is 21:00 (19:00 GMT).

As I said earlier this morning:
 
"Stay tuned, I guarantee that there will be more theatrics and that his meeting will be postponed again.""

Can you guess what happened yesterday children?

Yes, that's right, the meeting was postponed to today.

Can you guess what is happening now children?

Yes, that's right, today's imaginary meeting has been put back from an imaginary start time to another imaginary start time.

Oh, but today's theatrics don't quite end there.

For your see children, today's meeting is in fact going to be postponed to tomorrow (where of course it will be postponed again).

Now, many of you may be asking why does Papademos keep doing this?

The answer is simple, he knows that it will be political suicide to impose the Troika's conditions on the Greek people; he is looking to exit the Euro (as I wrote yesterday). Until he finds a way of exiting the Euro, that saves his political hide, he must play for time and pretend that an agreement on the deal is close at hand.

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The Movable Feast That is The Papademos Meeting

The much vaunted, much postponed, meeting between Greek Prime Minister Papademos and the leaders of his political "allies"/"supporters" wherein they will allegedly agree to the Troika's demands has become something of a movable feats.

Originally scheduled to resume yesterday, it was postponed to this afternoon.

An hour or so ago the major news networks were stating that the meeting wpould be around 1pm, that was then moved to 4pm.

The latest "guestimate" is that the meeting (if it ever occurs) will be at 8pm.

Incidentally, there are rumours that as today is a general strike in Greece, Papademos's driver hasn't shown up to work. As such lets us trust that the meeting is at his house, otherwise he may well be late!

Stay tuned, I guarantee that there will be more theatrics and that his meeting will be postponed again.

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