Showing posts with label iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iran. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Greece Oil Shock
In January I warned that the EU embargo on Iranian oil would cause Greece problems:
"There has been much hype and sanctimonious puffing of chests from the EU about its agreement "in principle" to ban imports of oil from Iran.In February I noted that:
However, as Paul Stevens economist and emeritus professor at Dundee University in Scotland notes, Greece currently imports 30% of its domestic oil from Iran on favourable terms.
Were Iranian oil imports to be banned, where would Greece get its oil from?
Saudi Arabia?
Maybe, but at an economy busting $150+ per barrel.
As with all EU "plans" this one has not been thought through."
"They are currently negotiating for supplies of oil from elsewhere, any admission that their supplies have been cut will negatively impact those negotiations and cause panic buying in Greece."As predicted, things are not going well; as reported by News.AZ:
"The EU has postponed an April deadline to review the impacts of the bloc’s embargo on oil imports from Iran due to Greece's concerns on finding new oil suppliers."As ever with all EU "plans", no one has bothered to think through the consequences of them.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Greece's Oil Shock
In February I wrote that Hellenic (Greece's main oil refiner):
This of course means that its negotiations for reasonably priced supplies for Greece from elsewhere have just been torpedoed.
Hardly good news for the imploding Greek economy!
"are currently negotiating for supplies of oil from elsewhere, any admission that their supplies have been cut will negatively impact those negotiations and cause panic buying in Greece."Today Hellenic have announced that it has suspended purchases of Iranian crude in April, as approaching sanctions on Tehran have made banking payments virtually impossible.
This of course means that its negotiations for reasonably priced supplies for Greece from elsewhere have just been torpedoed.
Hardly good news for the imploding Greek economy!
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Emergency Oil Reserves Tapped
The US and UK have agreed (ahead of the US fleet boosting its presence in the Gulf, and SWIFT cutting Iran off from the world's financial system) to release reserves of emergency oil stocks.
UPDATE
The Whitehouse are currently denying the veracity of this report. Meanwhile the "inaccurate" report has had the desired effect of driving oil prices lower.
Funny that!
FURTHER UPDATE
The Prime Minister's official spokesman re Obama Cameron talks has admitted that the issue was discussed:
"The issue of oil supply was discussed but no decisions were made."
You can rest assured that the decision has been been made, and will be implemented on a predetermined date/event.
UPDATE
The Whitehouse are currently denying the veracity of this report. Meanwhile the "inaccurate" report has had the desired effect of driving oil prices lower.
Funny that!
FURTHER UPDATE
The Prime Minister's official spokesman re Obama Cameron talks has admitted that the issue was discussed:
"The issue of oil supply was discussed but no decisions were made."
You can rest assured that the decision has been been made, and will be implemented on a predetermined date/event.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Oil Shipment To Greece Stopped
"Greece relied on Iran for more than half of its oil imports during some months last year after traders and oil majors pulled the plug on supplies and banks refused to provide financing for fear that Athens
would default on its debt."
Unfortunately, Iran has just stopped a shipment of oil to Greece:
"Oil tankers that had come to transfer 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil to a refinery in Greece had to go back empty-handed after Iran refused to give the shipment,"
However, Hellenic have denied the veracity of this story :
"That has nothing to do with us ... all supplies from Iran have been processed normally,"
Well, they would have to deny this wouldn't they?
They are currently negotiating for supplies of oil from elsewhere, any admission that their supplies have been cut will negatively impact those negotiations and cause panic buying in Greece.
Beware denials and irrational optimism from Greek oil companies!
would default on its debt."
Unfortunately, Iran has just stopped a shipment of oil to Greece:
"Oil tankers that had come to transfer 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil to a refinery in Greece had to go back empty-handed after Iran refused to give the shipment,"
However, Hellenic have denied the veracity of this story :
"That has nothing to do with us ... all supplies from Iran have been processed normally,"
Well, they would have to deny this wouldn't they?
They are currently negotiating for supplies of oil from elsewhere, any admission that their supplies have been cut will negatively impact those negotiations and cause panic buying in Greece.
Beware denials and irrational optimism from Greek oil companies!
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Friday, January 27, 2012
Iran To Stop European Oil Shipments
The FARS news agency reports that the Iranian parliament will debate an emergency bill this Sun that would halt oil exports to Europe from next week.
That will hit the EU's plans for a gradual imposition of sanctions.
That will hit the EU's plans for a gradual imposition of sanctions.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Greece To Lose Oil Supply II
A few days ago I asked where, with the implementation of EU sanctions on Iranian oil imports, will Greece, which currently imports 30% of its domestic oil from Iran on favourable terms, source its oil from?
I noted earlier this month that oil would likely rise to $150 a barrel, a price that would cripple the already enfeebled Greek economy.
Now it seems that IMF have woken up to this issue, and have warned that sanctions will cause a "large effect on prices".
The Telegraph quotes the IMF:
"A halt of Iran's exports to OECD economies without offset from other sources would likely trigger an initial oil price increase of around 20pc-30pc."
Brent crude is currently trading at over $110 per barrel, a rise of 30% gives a price of $143.
I noted earlier this month that oil would likely rise to $150 a barrel, a price that would cripple the already enfeebled Greek economy.
Now it seems that IMF have woken up to this issue, and have warned that sanctions will cause a "large effect on prices".
The Telegraph quotes the IMF:
"A halt of Iran's exports to OECD economies without offset from other sources would likely trigger an initial oil price increase of around 20pc-30pc."
Brent crude is currently trading at over $110 per barrel, a rise of 30% gives a price of $143.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Greece To Lose Its Oil Supply
The EU has agreed to an immediate ban on all new contracts to import, purchase or transport Iranian crude oil and petroleum products.
EU countries with existing contracts for Iranian oil and petroleum products will have until July 1, 2012 to complete those contracts.
OK then, here's a small question for the EU.
Where will Greece, which currently imports 30% of its domestic oil from Iran on favourable terms, source its oil from?
Friday, January 6, 2012
EU Ban on Iranian Oil
There has been much hype and sanctimonious puffing of chests from the EU about its agreement "in principle" to ban imports of oil from Iran.
However, as Paul Stevens economist and emeritus professor at Dundee University in Scotland notes, Greece currently imports 30% of its domestic oil from Iran on favourable terms.
Were Iranian oil imports to be banned, where would Greece get its oil from?
Saudi Arabia?
Maybe, but at an economy busting $150+ per barrel.
As with all EU "plans" this one has not been thought through.
Hence the EU is now talking about sanctions coming into force within a year (rather than immediately).
The sanctions will never happen.
Now repeat after me:
-There was no plan!
-There is no plan!
-There never will be a plan!
However, as Paul Stevens economist and emeritus professor at Dundee University in Scotland notes, Greece currently imports 30% of its domestic oil from Iran on favourable terms.
Were Iranian oil imports to be banned, where would Greece get its oil from?
Saudi Arabia?
Maybe, but at an economy busting $150+ per barrel.
As with all EU "plans" this one has not been thought through.
Hence the EU is now talking about sanctions coming into force within a year (rather than immediately).
The sanctions will never happen.
Now repeat after me:
-There was no plan!
-There is no plan!
-There never will be a plan!
