Whither Project Merlin? - Osborne's Maxed Out Plan A

Kudos to Mervyn King and George Osborne for gamely trying to shore up the British economy, against the oncoming Eurozone tsunami, with a £100BN support programme.

The FT reports that:

"the chancellor told a City audience on Thursday night that he was working with Sir Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, to “deploy new firepower” amid fears that turmoil in the Eurozone could lead to a severe credit crunch and higher interest rates in Britain.

Mr Osborne’s aides spoke of a “maxing out of Plan A” – taking advantage of the country’s record of fiscal discipline and credibility with the markets to unleash an aggressive monetary policy offering cheaper loans to businesses and households."

The markets have reacted favourably (as they always do) to "hopeful" news.

This is all very well, if one could trust the banks to lend the money on to companies and individuals. However, all that the banks will do it use the £100BN to shore up their own balance sheets.

Not one penny of this will reach the business or individuals who need it, and would be the engines of growth for the British economy.

It would be better of Osborne took the £100BN and simply dropped it from a helicopter over the UK, that way he could be sure that it will have some positive effect on the economy.

Am I being too cynical?

I don't think so, have you all forgotten the hopes and hype wrt Project Merlin?

Whatever happened to that then?

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The Budget - Summary and Details

Here is a link to the details of today's Budget as per HMT:

Budget

Whilst here are the headlines of today's budget (source):

Tax changes

The personal allowance will rise to £9,205 in April 2013

• The top rate of Income Tax will reduce from 50 per cent to 45 per cent in April 2013.
• The Income Tax personal allowance (the amount you can earn before you pay tax) will increase to £9,205 in April 2013.
• Age related allowances will be frozen from April 2013, moving towards a simpler, single personal allowance for everyone regardless of age.
• From 2014-15, taxpayers will receive a new Personal Tax Statement, telling them how much Income Tax and National Insurance they have paid and what their money is being spent on.
• Income Tax reliefs that aren't already capped will be capped at £50,000 or 25 per cent of income, whichever is higher.
• The main rate of Corporation Tax will reduce by an additional 1 per cent from April 2012.

The new Income Tax rates for the 2012-13 tax year were published in December 2011 and will start on 6 April 2012.

• Budget 2012 - New Income Tax rates 2012-13

Benefits

Child Benefit will be withdrawn for households where someone has an income of more than £50,000

• Child Benefit will be withdrawn when someone in a household has an income of more than £50,000. The benefit will be withdrawn gradually; 1 per cent of Child Benefit for every extra £100 earned over £50,000. Only those with an income of more than £60,000 will lose all their Child Benefit.
• Servicemen and women serving in operations overseas will receive 100 per cent relief on an average Council Tax bill.

The new rates for the State Pension and benefits for 2012-13 were published in December. These rates start in April 2012.

• Budget 2012 - new pension and benefit rates

Alcohol and tobacco

• Duty rates for alcohol will rise on 26 March 2012 at the same rate as last year - two per cent above inflation. The government will shortly be publishing an Alcohol Strategy to address alcohol abuse.
• Duty on tobacco will rise by five per cent above inflation - a rise of 37p on a pack of cigarettes. This will come into force at 6.00 pm on 21 March 2012.

Motoring and travel

• Vehicle Excise Duty (car tax) will increase by inflation only.
• The government will take forward many of the recommendations from Alan Cook’s independent review of the road network, including developing a national roads strategy.
• The government will also consider new ownership and financing models for the national road network.

Housing

• A new Stamp Duty Land Tax rate of 7 per cent will be introduced for residential properties over £2 million from 22 March 2012.
• The Stamp Duty Land Tax charge applied to residential properties over £2 million bought into a corporate envelope will be increased to 15 per cent from 21 March 2012. There will be a consultation on the introduction of an annual charge on £2 million residential properties which are already contained in corporate envelopes.
• A New Buy Scheme was introduced last week to help those who cannot afford the larger deposits that some mortgage companies demand.
• The government will fund an extra £100 million of improvements in the accommodation of the armed forces and their families.

Pensions

• The current system, where pensioners can receive an additional State Pension as well as their basic pension, will be simplified. This means that future pensioners will receive only one single-tier pension, based on contributions. This is currently estimated at around £140.
• There will be an automatic review of the State Pension age to ensure it keeps pace with increases in life expectancy. Details of how this will work will be published this summer.
• There will be no changes to pension relief.

Employment

• The National Minimum Wage will increase by less than inflation, as recommended by the Low Pay Commission, to support employers and help protect jobs.
• Sunday trading laws will be relaxed during the Olympics and Paralympics.
• National Minimum Wage rates to rise in October

Digital economy

• The government has committed to providing 90 per cent of the population with access to superfast broadband.
• There will be improved mobile phone coverage for rural areas and along key roads.
• Belfast, Birmingham, Bradford, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Leeds, London, Manchester and Newcastle are to become broadband super-connected cities, as part of the £100 million investment announced at the 2011 Autumn Statement.
• £50 million will be used to fund a second wave of smaller cities.

The economy

The UK economy is predicted to grow by 0.8 per cent this year, and 2 per cent in 2013

• The independent Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts for UK growth and inflation are broadly unchanged from its November forecasts.
• Growth: its growth forecast for the UK this year is 0.8 per cent; they forecast growth of 2 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014, and 3 per cent in 2015 and 2016.
• Inflation: expected to fall from 2.8 per cent this year to 1.9 per cent next year, and then 2 per cent by 2016
• The OBR’s forecast for the unemployment rate is unchanged from last Autumn - the rate is expected to peak this year at 8.7 per cent and fall to 6.3 per cent by 2016.
• Borrowing: public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to total £126 billion this year, falling to £120 billion next year. It is then forecast to to fall to £98 billion in 2013-14, reaching £21 billion by 2016-17.

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The Budget

Today, in case you were unaware, is Budget Day.

It is likely to be a damp squib, as most (if not all) of the headline measures/changes etc have already been leaked.

This is without doubt the most leaked budget in history.

When I was a lad people would have been flogged for leaking budget details (it is after all price sensitive information), how times change!

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Hector Sants Resigns Again

Hector Sants (CEO of the failed, and soon to be defunct, FSA) has finally resigned from office.

He had resigned once before in 2010, and was due to leave in the summer of that year. However, he was persuaded by George Osborne to stay on to become deputy governor of a new regulator due to "go live" in 2013:

"As predicted on this site, George Osborne has sounded the death knell of the ineffectual and inept FSA (ironically, despite its lousy performance, FSA staff were paid nearly £22M in bonuses last year).

Osborne has stated that it will cease to exist in its current form, and a "Consumer Protection and Markets Authority" will be created.

Hector Sants, the CEO of the FSA, will stay to become the new deputy governor and chief executive of the new regulator. That announcement is to be treated with a degree of scepticism. The new body will be considerably less powerful than the FSA, and it is likely that as soon as the transition has occurred Sants will depart (as this in effect a demotion)."

As noted, this was in effect a demotion, as the Bank of England's role is to be considerably enhanced. Therefore it is not surprising that Sants has decided to step down this summer, his role in the new Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) body will be taken on by the Bank of England's Andrew Bailey.

Despite persuading him to stay on in 2010, Osborne doesn't seem to have offered official public thanks to Sants for his work.

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Busted Flushes

Eurozone finance ministers to meet in Brussels today to discuss ways to expand the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

Given that it has been proven to be a busted flush, this meeting will be a remarkable waste of time.

Meanwhile, in the UK, George Osborne, will deliver his Autumn Statement.

This will be a "jam tomorrow" speech, in which he attempts to create the UK's mini version of the EFSF by using a £5BN cash injection from the government to leverage a further £20BN or so in finance from UK pension funds and the Chinese.

To give him credit, he may achieve more that the Eurozone has done with their busted flush!

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The Eurozone Agreement

After much pantomime and farce, there has been agreement of sorts on a way forward to try to save the Eurozone from collapse.

The key points are:

- Banks will take a 50% "haircut" on Greek debt

- The bailout fund will be leveraged to Euro1Trillion

- Banks have 6 months to raise Euro106BN

So, will this work?

It has bought some time. However, the Eurozone (in its current) form will eventually implode because of its inherent internal contradictions (eg you cannot have one monetary policy when there is such a disparity of growth between the member states).

That being said, there are some "issues" that may well unravel this sooner than the "leaders" of the Eurozone would like:

1 The "haircut" is, despite the spin (seemingly, according to the Euro spin machine the "haircut" is voluntary, therefore it is not a default!), a default.

Does this matter?

Yes, it does matter.

By defining it as not a default, the Eurozone has null and voided sovereign hedging via CDS (this has not gone down well with those who hedged against default).

2 According to George Osborne, the IMF cannot contribute to the bailout fund.

Therefore where will the money come from?

Seemingly Sarkozy is on the phone to China (as I write this) trying to persuade them to put money in.

Good luck with that then!

3 Many commentators are of the view that the fund (even if money is found to beef it up) is not large enough to appease the markets.

4 A large part of the Greek debt being "haircut" is tied up with Greek pension funds, ie the value of Greek pensions has been halved. Quite what the views of the Greek people will be, when they realise that their financial future has been cut in half is anyone's guess!

Real people are being affected by the decisions made by the clowns "leading" the Eurozone, the clowns would do well to remember that they only remain in office under the sufferance of the people.

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QEII Launched Into Choppy Waters

Hot on the heels of yesterday's launch by the Bank of England of QEII (valued at £75BN),
Moody's cut its ratings on a number of British banks.

RBS was dropped by two notches from A2 to Aa3, Lloyds TSB dropped by one notch to A1 from Aa3, Santander UK, Co-operative Bank, Nationwide and seven other smaller British building societies were also dropped.

The rationale being that Moodys' is of the view that the British government may not support certain banks in the event that they face collapse.

Unsurprisingly, George Osborne stated that he has confidence in the viability of the UK's banks.

The Treasury, as it happens, is also fighting tooth and nail any attempt by the EU to force UK banks to increase their capitalisation as a result of the soon to premiere "Stress Test III".

Is the reluctance by the Treasury based on their confidence in the banks?

Errmm..no.

It is a reluctance based on pragmatism, namely that were RBS to require more capital, the Treasury would be forced to buy shares (using taxpayers' money) at around 50p (as per the agreement with RBS) compared to the current price of 23p.

The alternative would be for the government to fully nationalise RBS.

Neither option appeals to Osborne.

In other news, a certain London based financial newspaper (which heavily relies on advertising revenue from banks) is continuing to spread the rumour that there is a plan for saving the Euro and the European banking system.

However:

Learn this,
Repeat this, and
Retweet this:

THERE IS NO PLAN!!

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The Budget

Today is Budget Day.

Unlike most budgets, the details of this one have been pretty well leaked or can be reasonably guessed.

The BBC has a list of guesses/leaks here Budget 2011: What we already know.

As to whether this budget really does stimulate growth, depends very much on people's "optimism/pessimism" about the future.

Given that many expect interest rates to go up, George Osborne may well have a difficult task kick starting growth no matter how much he tinkers with personal allowances.

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Inflation Own Goal

On the eve of the Budget, allegedly one designed for "growth", George Osborne has been hit by the unwelcome news that CPI inflation has risen to 4.4% in February and RPI has risen to 5.5%.

This of course, as I have noted before on this site, is not unexpected given that VAT was raised to 20% in January.

As such this inflation is an own goal scored by Osborne.

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The Budget and The £8BN "Windfall"

The ITEM club has estimated that public sector net borrowing will be around £140.2BN for 2010-11, £8.3BN less than the £148.5BN deficit forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Some sections of the media have foolishly referred to this as a "windfall", which the Chancellor can use to oil tomorrow's budget with.

This is of course nonsense, the Chancellor does not suddenly have access to an extra £8BN with which to "play":

1 This is merely a downward estimation of the level of increased debt that we are being saddled with each year.

2 The UK's total debt stands at £4.8 Trillion.

3 Our insane venture into Libya will put further holes in our country's finances.

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Project Merlin - Epilogue

Now that Project Merlin (the agreement between the government and the banks that, in theory, will regulate their behaviour) has been finally agreed and formally announced, the theory spun by the government is that we can move on from bank bashing.

Fair enough, maybe, if the banks actually make good on their promises.

However, the reality is that lending and the terms and conditions attached to that lending is unlikely to improve much (from the perspective of the corporate/individual borrower).

Even though interest rates remain fixed (no change today by the MPC) at historically rock bottom levels, the banks are making a nice "turn" on the difference between base rate and the rate that they charge borrowers and the spread between lending and savings rates.

The question that Osborne has not answered is, if the banks do not honour the agreement both in terms of substance and form what will he do then?

Don't tell me the answer to that though, tell him because I don't think that he knows the answer.

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Project Merlin

George Osborne will in the next hour announce details of the agreement reached between him and the banks wrt bonuses, lending, behaviour etc (aka Project Merlin).

It is predicted that the top five banks will increase available loans to businesses by around £190BN.

The banks will also pay lower bonuses in 2010, and disclose the pay of their respective top five executives.

Doubtless the bonuses will be lower, but will there be compensation for lower bonuses in the shape of other incentives eg options?

Reality and politicians promises are often far apart.

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Osborne Increases Bank Levy

George Osborne has increased the levy on banks by £800M to £2.5BN.

He claims that he wants to make sure that "banks make a fair contribution to closing the deficit".

The reality is that he wants banks to increase lending.

Project Merlin, the ongoing talks between the government and banks over their behaviour and lending policies, is still dragging on. Osborne, by upping the ante over the bank levy, is showing the banks that he wants to see progress from their side in the discussions.

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Plan B

Much has been made in the media and political circles about George Osborne's apparent lack of a "Plan B", in the event that his austerity plan goes awry.

Realistically these calls for a public declaration of a Plan B are absurd.

Were Osborne to publicly admit to there being a Plan B, it would be tantamount to admitting that he doesn't have faith in his preferred course of action. Given that economies and markets work on the basis of fear, emotion and greed such an admission would send the economy into a tailspin.

That being said, it would be extremely advisable for Osborne to have a Plan B (albeit a secret one) waiting in the wings.

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Let The Good Times Role!

As David Cameron sheds tears today for the average British householder, who will face a "difficult and tough" year ahead, it is reassuring to know that the banking sector is booming again.

The Telegraph reports that four HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds and Standard Chartered will announce combined profits of £24.2BN (a rise of over 10% compared with the £21.5BN they reported last year).

To some extent these profits (and associated bonuses) will be recouped by taxes. However, the key to the banks' "reassimilation" into "polite" society will be whether they show that they are willing to lend more to businesses and homebuyers than they have been doing of late.

Seemingly, as discussions between George Osborne and the banks over lending levels (aka project "Merlin") have become deadlocked, it may be a while before banks (by their actions) are "reassimilated".

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Soros Warns About Cuts

George Soros has issued a warning at the Davos financial summit that Britain's austerity programme may push the country into recession again.

Whilst it should not be forgotten that Soros made money out of betting against the UK in 1992, when the UK was pursuing the folly of the exchange rate mechanism, he may well have a point.

Cutting public expenditure, and hoping that the private sector will take up the slack will only work if there is room to significantly loosen monetary policy.

Interest rates are near zero, there is no further room to loosen monetary policy. Additionally, banks are steadfastly refusing to lend money at rates even vaguely comparable to the Bank of England rate.

It seems that Osborne's austerity programme was a leap in the dark, based on hope that the brief surge in the economy last summer was sustainable.

Plan B, as and when Osborne creates one, will doubtless have to be unveiled before this coming summer.

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Dark Days Coming

Yesterday's lousy "growth" figures (a fall of 0.5% in GDP) have heralded further bad news. Minutes from January's MPC meeting show that two members voted for an increase in rates, they must be mad.

The mood of gloom surrounding the economy was further depressed by a speech made last night by Mervyn King (Governor of the Bank of England), in which he said that wages will have to fall and that we are facing the worst economic conditions for 90 years.

I wonder if George Osborne has actually factored all of this into his economic plans?

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VAT Increase

As the VAT increase of 2.5% kicks in today, George Osborne is spinning the tale that this is necessary in order to tackle the budget deficit.

I would agree that the budget deficit needs to be tackled. However, I make the following observations:

1 The debt of the UK stands at £4.8 Trillion, it will take much more than a 2.5% increase in VAT to tackle that.

2 As with decimalisation in the early 1970's, retailers will use this VAT rise as an excuse to round up prices. The result will be, as in the 70's, an inflationary bubble.

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FSA Humiliated

Unsurprisingly the FSA's attempt to hide the details of its 18 month "investigation" into the near collapse of RBS, via a pathetic one paragraph "a series of bad decisions was made" fig leaf, has brought down upon it the scorn it so richly deserves.

Sir Fred "the shred" Goodwin is said to be perfectly happy for the report to be published (not that his approval or disapproval needs to be sought), and indeed George Osborne is pushing for the report to be published. RBS is, after all, a public asset.

However, the FSA are defiantly sticking to its guns and refusing to publish until a "legal view" could be established that it could do so within the exemptions of the law.

A nice "excuse" clause such as that may well be appropriate for certain private organisations. However, as noted, RBS is a public asset it is in the public's interest to see the results of the FSA's labours.

Quite why the FSA is so determined to keep the report hidden from public view is causing many people to wonder as to whether it is protecting RBS, or itself and its investigation, from rigorous scrutiny.

Either way the FSA, by this shameful episode, have demonstrated that it has no future.

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Mervyn King Under Pressure

Mervyn King, Governor of The Bank of England, is the latest prominent figure to be embarrassed by the Wikileaks saga.

A cable sent by Louis Susman (US Ambassador) to Hillary Clinton in February 2010 summarises Mr King's views about David Cameron and George Osborne, expressed during meeting that he held with the ambassador.

The Governor opined that Cameron and Osborne "had a tendency to think about issues only in terms of politics, and how they might affect Tory electorability", and was worried about their lack of experience.

There are some who are now calling for King's resignation, citing his alleged "thirst for power". Quite why a private conversation with the US ambassador, albeit embarrassing now that it is leaked, should force him to resign is beyond me.

I suspect those who are making this call are doing so based on their personal dislike of the man, rather than on any specific "offence" and alleged "breach of neutrality" that they claim that he has made.

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