Finland Preparing For Eurozone Breakup

Erkki Tuomioja, Finland's Foreign Minister, has stated that Finland is preparing for the breakup of the Eurozone. He is quoted in the Telegraph:

"Our officials, like everybody else and like every general staff, have some sort of operational plan for any eventuality."

He wisely and honestly notes that the end of the Eurozone does not mean the end of the EU. Other politicians in the Eurozone would have us believe that the end of the Euro will sound the death knell for the EU, this is of course scaremongering nonsense.

Kudos to Mr Tuomioja for speaking the truth and for shooting the fox of the lying Europhiles!

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#Grexit Next Month?

I see that with the depressing inevitability of the return of an unloved season, there is renewed speculation (which frankly has never gone away) that Greece will exit the Eurozone possibly as early as next month.

CNBC quote Paul Day, Chief Strategist, at Market Securities:

“It’s a question of when, not if. 

Next month there is the ratification of the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] in Germany and you may well see a situation where Greece leaves the euro, the ESM is ratified and Spain and Italy then go in and ask for the money. 

There is a feeling that time is running out.”

He is of course correct, Greece will exit the Euro. The trouble is no one can know for sure when. As I have noted before, as and when it happens, it will have to take the markets and the citizens of Greece "by surprise".

When Greece leaves the Euro there will be, at the very least, the following "events":

- an imposition of capital and border controls,
- atms will run out of cash
- foreign banks and companies will treat Greece as a "plague ship", and stop all financial dealings in the short-term
- credit cards will not be accepted by many establishments (in fact this is already the case)
- there will be issues of street and civil disorder to contend with
- airports will be full, as foreigners rush to leave

Will Greece leave next month?

I don't know.

However, pressure is mounting; eg Greece is seeking a two year extension to its austerity program.

It is just a matter of time.

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Greece Sacrifices Jobs To Appease The Euro Gods

Greek unemployment has risen to an all time high of 23.1%, from 22.6%.

It is quite clear that Greece cannot remain in the Euro under the present terms and conditions, However, the politicians will continue to sacrifice jobs and people's lives in order to feed their egos and vanity with the continuation of the Euro monolith.

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Sentix Predicts 73% Chance of Euro Breakup

The sentix Euro Break-up Index for July has risen by 22% to 73%. The index mirrors the investors' perceived probability of at least one country leaving the Euro within the next twelve months.

The index predicts that there is a 97% probability that Greece will exit the Euro.

Unsurprisingly, Euro politicians (who have much to lose when the Euro collapses; eg status, ego and salaries) have been quick to panic and have been trying to talk markets up. Step forward Germany's foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, who has warned Europe's politicians "not to talk Europe apart". He is quoted in the Telegraph:

"We need a strengthening, not a weakening of democratic legitimacy in Europe." 

This is all very well, but the markets will only now believe actions not words (as even Draghi must now realise after last week's dismal showing by the ECB has proven).

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ECB Does Nothing - As Predicted

As I predicted this morning, the ECB has done absolutely nothing to alleviate the crisis in the Eurozone.

As per Business Insider President Mario Draghi of the ECB failed to announce any definitive measures to address concerns about the burgeoning sovereign debt crisis in his latest post-decision press conference today.

The markets, that had foolishly deluded themselves that the ECB would act, have taken a tumble.

Here is Draghi's lengthy statement outling that the ECB will do nothing:

"Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
Frankfurt am Main, 
2 August 2012 

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Rehn.

Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged, following the decrease of 25 basis points in July. As we said a month ago, inflation should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, economic growth in the euro area remains weak, with the ongoing tensions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty weighing on confidence and sentiment. A further intensification of financial market tensions has the potential to affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation on the downside.

The Governing Council extensively discussed the policy options to address the severe malfunctioning in the price formation process in the bond markets of euro area countries. Exceptionally high risk premia are observed in government bond prices in several countries and financial fragmentation hinders the effective working of monetary policy. Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner. The euro is irreversible.

In order to create the fundamental conditions for such risk premia to disappear, policy-makers in the euro area need to push ahead with fiscal consolidation, structural reform and European institution-building with great determination. As implementation takes time and financial markets often only adjust once success becomes clearly visible, governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines.

The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfilment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions. The Governing Council, within its mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term and in observance of its independence in determining monetary policy, may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. In this context, the concerns of private investors about seniority will be addressed. Furthermore, the Governing Council may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks, we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures.

Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. On a quarterly basis, euro area real GDP growth was flat in the first quarter of 2012, following a decline of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Economic indicators point to weak economic activity in the second quarter of 2012 and at the beginning of the third quarter, in an environment of heightened uncertainty. Looking beyond the short term, we expect the euro area economy to recover only very gradually, with growth momentum being further dampened by a number of factors. In particular, tensions in some euro area sovereign debt markets and their impact on financing conditions, the process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors and high unemployment are expected to weigh on the underlying growth momentum, which is also affected by the ongoing global slowdown.

The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. They relate, in particular, to the tensions in several euro area financial markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. Downside risks also relate to possible renewed increases in energy prices over the medium term.

Euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.4% in July 2012, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from the previous month. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013. Over the policy‑relevant horizon, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area and well‑anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain moderate.

Risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. Upside risks pertain to further increases in indirect taxes, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation, and higher than expected energy prices over the medium term. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area, in particular resulting from a further intensification of financial market tensions. Such intensification has the potential to affect the balance of risks on the downside.

Turning to the monetary analysis, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remained subdued. The annual growth rate of M3 stood at 3.2% in June 2012, slightly higher than the 3.1% observed in the previous month and close to the rate observed at the end of the first quarter. Overall, inflows into broad money in the second quarter were weak. Annual growth in M1 increased further to 3.5% in June, in line with the increased preference of investors for liquid instruments in an environment of low interest rates and high uncertainty.

The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) declined to 0.3% in June (from 0.5% in May). As net redemptions of loans to non-financial corporations and households (both adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) were observed in June, the annual growth rates for loans to both non‑financial corporations and households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) decreased further in June, to -0.3% and 1.1% respectively. To a large extent, subdued loan growth reflects the current cyclical situation, heightened risk aversion and the ongoing adjustment in the balance sheets of households and enterprises, all of which weigh on credit demand. A considerable contribution of demand factors to weak MFI loan growth is confirmed by the euro area bank lending survey for the second quarter of 2012. This survey also shows that the net tightening of banks’ credit standards at the euro area level was broadly stable in the second quarter of 2012, as compared with the previous quarter, for loans to both enterprises and households.
Looking ahead, it is essential for banks to continue to strengthen their resilience where this is needed. The soundness of banks’ balance sheets will be a key factor in facilitating both an appropriate provision of credit to the economy and the normalisation of all funding channels.
To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture.

While significant progress has been achieved with fiscal consolidation over recent years, further decisive and urgent steps need to be taken to improve competitiveness. From 2009 to 2011, euro area countries, on average, reduced the deficit-to-GDP ratio by 2.3 percentage points, and the primary deficit improved by about 2½ percentage points. Fiscal adjustment in the euro area is continuing in 2012, and it is indeed crucial that efforts are maintained to restore sound fiscal positions. At the same time, structural reforms are as essential as fiscal consolidation efforts and the measures to repair the financial sector. Some progress has also been made in this area. For example, unit labour costs and current account developments have started to undergo a correction process in most of the countries strongly affected by the crisis. However, further reform measures need to be implemented swiftly and decisively. Product market reforms to foster competitiveness and the creation of efficient and flexible labour markets are preconditions for the unwinding of existing imbalances and the achievement of robust, sustainable growth. It is now crucial that Member States implement their country-specific recommendations with determination."

The hostage to fortune is of course this phrase:

"The euro is irreversible."

As previous failed currency unions have shown, the Euro is reversible.

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Don't Believe The ECB Hype

The markets and some commentators are trying to delude themselves that the ECB will finally do something tangible to "save" the Euro.

ECB President, Mario Draghi, has managed to con some people who should know better into believing that the ECB will conduct a major bond purchasing campaign. In theory the bond buying campaign will reduce the interest rates of Spain and Italy (note Greece is not included, because it has been thrown to the wolves) and thus save the Euro.

However, people are ignoring the two very large elephants in the room:

1 Any such decision and action to buy bonds will not occur until after 12 September, when Germany’s top court rules on the ratification of the ESM. This being over a month away means that Spain and Italy, because of crippling interest rates, will most likely have imploded by them.

2 Germany’s top court may well not ratify the ESM. Even if it does, all 17 eurozone members would need to agree to it as well. Fat chance!

Therefore, don't believe the ECB hype.

The Euro, in its present form, is finished!

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Bundesbank Challenges ECB To Pissing Contest

In an interview conducted in June, but "conveniently" published on the Bundesbank's website today, the Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has stressed that the ECB should not exceed its mandate.

He also noted that the Bundesbank is more "important" than others in the eurozone.

The Telegraph quotes him:

"[The ECB] must be aware that its independence obliges it to respect its own mandate and not to exceed it. 

We are the largest and most important central bank in the Eurosystem and we have a greater say than many other central banks in the Eurosystem."

It seems that the Bundesbank has just challenged the ECB to a pissing contest!

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Bundesbank Shoots Draghi's Fox

Yesterday Mario Draghi, head of the ECB, was making all sorts of rash promises about the ECB doing whatever was needed to prop up the Euro etc.

I noted:

"Draghi then reverted to type, and promised that the ECB will "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro".

This of course is patently untrue."

Today the Bundesbank has verified my conclusion, by stating that it remains opposed to further bond buying by the ECB.

Whatever Draghi might like to do, the Bundesbank won't allow him to do it; ie they have shot his fox.

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Mario Draghi On Euro Break Up

Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, has spoken about the possibility of a euro break-up

"When people talk about the fragility of the euro, very often non-euro members underestimate the political capital that has been invested."

Ironically, for once, he was speaking more or less truthfully. In the sense that because so many politicians have a vested interest in maintaining the Euro in its present form, they will fight tooth and nail to keep it.

Sadly, for countries such as Greece, this means that their economies, democracies and social order will be sacrificed to appease the politicains' vanity and egos.

Draghi then reverted to type, and promised that the ECB will "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro".

This of course is patently untrue.

Greece will exit, and the politicians will scramble to preserve the Euro in another form.

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IMF Cuts Greece Adrift

Ahead of this week's visit to Greece by the Troika, the IMF has signalled that it will stop paying further rescue aid to Greece; ie they want Greece to leave the Euro, and have given the Europeans the opportunity to push Greece out if it does not go of its own accord.

Greece is due to make a Euro3.1BN bond payment in August, it is not clear how this can occur though.

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Greece Spiralling Downwards

Costas Mitropoulos, the chief executive of Greece's privatisation agency, resigned on July 19.

 

In an open letter to Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras he notes that the new government has not given him/the agency the support needed:

"In order to accelerate privatization and to carry out the projected result, the government must provide full support for the administration of the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF), facilitate all actions, and promote privatization as planned. This will give a message of reliability, professionalism and commitment to those looking to invest in Greece. The newly elected government has not given the support needed... 

Instead, they have indirectly yet systematically reduced the prestige and credibility in the eyes of potential investors. 

Furthermore, no set date has been given to the Chairman of the Board to resume meetings and indeed accelerate the privatization program. 

In these conditions I can no longer work professionally and effectively in my role as CEO entrusted by the state in July 2011."

Given that privatisation is key rebuilding the Greek economy and to ensuring that it honours its bailout commitments, the lack of progress indicates that Greece will not meet its commitments and that the economy will continue to spiral downwards.

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Cameron's 2020 Vision - Austerity Until 2020

It appears that the world will be mired in recession until 2020.

That at least is the view of David Cameron, who says that he now expects the crisis in the eurozone to drag on for years.

When asked by The Telegraph as to whether the austerity programme would now last a decade until 2020, the Prime Minister replied:

“I think it’s going to be...this is a period for all countries, not just in Europe but I think you will see it in America too, where we have to deal with our deficits and we have to have sustainable debts. I can’t see any time soon when…the pressure will be off. 

I don’t see a time when difficult spending choices are going to go away.”

That kind of talk will not help the economy, as consumer economies are underpinned by hope/expectations of growth and prosperity.

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Spain Appeases The Gods of Austerity

The Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has announced more sweeping austerity measures; including a rise in VAT and other taxes, increases to spending cuts and suspending Christmas bonuses for civil servants.

The measures are designed to cut Euro65BN from Spain's budget deficit by 2014.

Among the measures proposed are a 3% rise in VAT, cuts in unemployment benefit and civil service pay and perks. There will also be new indirect taxes on energy, plans to privatise ports, airports and rail assets and a reversal of property tax breaks.

For the moment, it appears that pensions have come out of the cuts unscathed. However, as and when the plans unravel, doubtless pensions will be placed on the altar for sacrifice to the gods of austerity.

Spanish banks will receive up to Euro100BN of aid, whilst the Spanish people pay the price of saving the banks.

Suffice to say, the plan will unravel.

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Greece Names New Finance Minister

With the resignation of Vassilis Rapanos the yet to be sworn in Greek Finance Minister, from his hospital bed on Monday, Greece's new Finance Minister has been named as Yannis Stournaras (the man who led Greece into the Euro using fraudulent data).

It is assumed that he will be able to remain in office at least long enough to be sworn in, before being rushed to hospital.

Above, in case you are wondering, is a photo of the Athens Finance Ministry (courtesy of ZDF).

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Greece Devolves To Emerging Economy

Reuters reports that Greece is now devolving from a first world economy into an emerging economy.

MSCI has placed Greece on review for relegation to emerging market status, this will make it the first country to be thrown back out of developed equity indices.

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The Oncoming Storm - Eurogeddon

Europe is poised to bailout Spain and Italy to the tune of £600BN, and the Telegraph reports that a  Bank of England policy maker has told traders to prepare for a devastating market seizure similar to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Batten down the hatches!

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Interest Rates Under Review

The MPC has placed its interest rate of 0.5% "under review", as per the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 6 & 7 June 2012.

The reason for the "under review" status being the ongoing deterioration of the economic situation in Europe, and "weaker economic data from the United States and emerging economies".

"Overall, the Committee judged that, at the present time, a further reduction in Bank Rate would not have any advantages over an expansion of the asset purchase programme, though it would keep the position under review."

This means that it is highly likely that rates will be reduced in the very near future.

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Spanish Bank Auditors Go On Summer Holidays

The Wall Street Journal reports that the deadline for auditors from Deloitte, KPMG, PwC and Ernst & Young to present full reports on the capital needs of Spain's financial sector has been delayed from July 31 to September.

For why?

Officially the reason being presented is the need for more time to complete the evaluation, and the fact that most of Spain (especially the government) is on holiday during the summer.

Amazingly enough the auditors, and those organisations that have commissioned the auditors to do the work (ie Spain's government, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank), have agreed to a delay in order to allow people to go on holiday.

There are two possible conclusions to be drawn from this absurd excuse for a delay:

1 There is in fact no urgent need for any reform or further funding of the financial sector or, more likely,

2 There is something that has yet to emerge that people want hidden for the time being.


Draw your own conclusions.

Doubtless the "crisis" will not get any worse during the summer recess!

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Euro0.5Trillion EU Exposure To Greece

€ Billion	Total Exposure to Greece
Eurozone:	Austria	15.5
	Belgium	17.7
	Cyprus	1.1
	Estonia	0.7
	Finland	8.5
	France	138.9
	Germany	139.4
	Greece	7.7
	Ireland	7.8
	Italy	84.9
	Luxembourg	1.3
	Malta	0.6
	Netherlands	30.7
	Portugal	19.8
	Slovakia	2.7
	Slovenia	2.3
	Spain	55.7
Non-Eurozone:	Bulgaria	0.2
	Czech Republic	0.3
	Denmark	0.5
	Latvia	0.0
	Lithuania	0.1
	Hungary	0.3
	Poland	0.4
	Romania	0.3
	Sweden	0.9
	United Kingdom	13.5
Total		551.8

Source Zerohedge

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#Grexit

"Now is not the time for any kind of discounts to Greece"
 German deputy government spokesman Georg Streiter.

Source Zerohedge.

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