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Showing posts with label china. Show all posts
Showing posts with label china. Show all posts

Monday, April 16, 2012

China Loosens Currency Controls

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced that it is loosening currency controls over the Yuan. As from today, the Yuan can fluctuate up to 1% (the previous limit being 0.5%) in trading against the US dollar from a fixed price set by the central bank.

The move will please the USA, which has been banging on about the Yuan being "undervalued" for years. Ironically, the Yuan finished weaker against the Dollar at the end of today's trading.

Here is the full text:
"The People’s Bank of China Announcement [2012 No.4] 

Along with the development of China’s foreign exchange market, the pricing and risk management capabilities of market participants are gradually strengthening. In order to meet market demands, promote price discovery, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate in both directions, further improve the managed floating RMB exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, the People’s Bank of China has decided to enlarge the floating band of RMB’s trading prices against the US dollar and is hereby making a public announcement as follows:


Effective from April 16, 2012 onwards, the floating band of RMB’s trading prices against the US dollar in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market is enlarged from 0.5 percent to 1 percent, i.e., on each business day, the trading prices of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market will fluctuate within a band of ±1 percent around the central parity released on the same day by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. 

The spread between the RMB/USD selling and buying prices offered by the foreign exchange-designated banks to their customers shall not exceed 2 percent of the central parity, instead of 1 percent, while other provisions in the Circular of the PBC on Relevant Issues Managing the Trading Prices in the Inter-bank Foreign Exchange Market and Quoted Exchange Rates of Exchange-Designated Banks(PBC Document No.[2010]325) remain valid.

In view of the domestic and international economic and financial conditions, the People’s Bank of China will continue to fulfill its mandates in relation to the RMB exchange rate, keeping RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies to preserve stability of the Chinese economy and financial markets."
The fact that it is a rarity that the PBOC issues statements in English demonstrates that this move is targeted at foreign markets.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

The EU Begging Bowl Travels To China

The EU, in the form of EU President Herman van Rompuy, has yet again taken its begging bowl to China in a desperate attempt to avoid having to use its own funds to resolve its own self inflicted mess.

The Chinese, for their part, have been very polite and hospitable.

China's Premier Wen Jiabao said that China was ready to increase its participation in efforts to resolve Europe's debt crisis, as per AFP:

"China is ready to increase its participation in resolving the EU debt problems."

However, despite van Rompuy believing that this may mean that China will provide funds this time (China sent the last EU begging delegation back empty handed in 2011), it is clear that the Chinese quite rightly believe that it is for Europe to sort its mess out. This week the Chinese foreign ministry said that the European crisis had reached a "critical juncture", the implication being that the EU needs to recognise this and address the issues itself.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

China Tells Europe To Put Its House In Order

Angela Merkel is visiting China (to ask for help in sorting out the European debt crisis). Her visit though has not produced the result that she was hoping for.

Chinese Premier Wen Jinbao has told her:

"Europe must rely on itself, reduce its debt load and introduce structural reforms".

Back to drawing board for Europe then!

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Busted Flushes

Eurozone finance ministers to meet in Brussels today to discuss ways to expand the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

Given that it has been proven to be a busted flush, this meeting will be a remarkable waste of time.

Meanwhile, in the UK, George Osborne, will deliver his Autumn Statement.

This will be a "jam tomorrow" speech, in which he attempts to create the UK's mini version of the EFSF by using a £5BN cash injection from the government to leverage a further £20BN or so in finance from UK pension funds and the Chinese.

To give him credit, he may achieve more that the Eurozone has done with their busted flush!

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Acropolis Now!

The end game wrt the Greece farce is upon us.

Greece's finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, has broken ranks and said that the referendum should not go ahead.

There are plans for yet another emergency Greek cabinet meeting this morning. The Prime Minister of Greece, George Papandreou, will resign and the government will fall.

As such the idea of the referendum can now be considered dead and buried.

Unfortunately the damage is done:

- Markets are in turmoil
- The Chinese will not fund the EFSF until Europe gets its house in order
- Obama is furious that his time at the G20 has been wasted
- Italy's yields are now at 6.5% etc

What next?

There will be elections in Greece, the time between now and those elections will see the Eurozone under even more pressure, as markets hate uncertainty. Additionally, until Greece decides (whether by election or referendum) as to whether it accepts the bailout package it will not receive the next tranche of Euro8BN recently agreed (which was meant to pay the wages of the public sector workers).

This is a mess, and the endgame for Greece and most likely the Eurozone.

Follow daily updates on the end of the Euro by subscribing to Acropolis Now!

Monday, October 31, 2011

China Says "Not Yet"

Despite European hopes and spin that the Chinese will bailout Europe, by funding a large part of the EFSF, China is not rushing to write Europe a cheque.

Klaus Regling, went to Beijing to discuss terms. However, his poorly planned, uninvited visit and the comments of Nicolas Sarkozy about Beijing having a "major role to play" in proposals to expand the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) only seem to have irritated the Chinese.

China, quite rightly, wants more clarity on terms and conditions etc before it considers investing anything.

The official Xinhua news agency said that Europe must put its house in order:

"China can neither take up the role as a saviour to the Europeans, nor provide a 'cure' for the European malaise.Obviously, it is up to European countries themselves to tackle their financial problems."

Europe needs to understand that it is a "buyers' market", and that it is up to the Europeans to "sell" their "investment opportunity" (EFSF) to potential investors.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Where's The Money Hunny?

Despite all the hoopla exuded by the Eurozone "leaders" over their "plan" to save the Euro, there are quite a few nagging questions over the details of that "plan".

Not least, the elephant in the room, where is the money coming from?

Klaus Regling, the head of the eurozone bail-out fund, has popped over to China today to try to twist some arms there.

Good luck with that then, as China has already indicated it will only put money in via an IMF backed scheme. Note, the IMF cannot put money into the EFSF.

In other news, Italian bond yields have risen today above 6%, in the event they reach 7% then it's game over.

Meanwhile in Greece, where the country's pension funds have been cut in half by the rescue "plan", the people marked National Day by forcing state officials to leave the parades by hurling eggs, yogurts, raising banners with Swastikas proclaiming "No to 4th Reich" and chanting “Thieves!”

This video shows students marchingin Athens, and raising their hands holding black handkerchiefs.



Whatever the hype and spin from the Eurozone bunker, the decisions made by the "leaders" of the Eurozone have had, and are having, very real and unpleasant consequences for the people of Europe.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Eurozone Agreement

After much pantomime and farce, there has been agreement of sorts on a way forward to try to save the Eurozone from collapse.

The key points are:

- Banks will take a 50% "haircut" on Greek debt

- The bailout fund will be leveraged to Euro1Trillion

- Banks have 6 months to raise Euro106BN

So, will this work?

It has bought some time. However, the Eurozone (in its current) form will eventually implode because of its inherent internal contradictions (eg you cannot have one monetary policy when there is such a disparity of growth between the member states).

That being said, there are some "issues" that may well unravel this sooner than the "leaders" of the Eurozone would like:

1 The "haircut" is, despite the spin (seemingly, according to the Euro spin machine the "haircut" is voluntary, therefore it is not a default!), a default.

Does this matter?

Yes, it does matter.

By defining it as not a default, the Eurozone has null and voided sovereign hedging via CDS (this has not gone down well with those who hedged against default).

2 According to George Osborne, the IMF cannot contribute to the bailout fund.

Therefore where will the money come from?

Seemingly Sarkozy is on the phone to China (as I write this) trying to persuade them to put money in.

Good luck with that then!

3 Many commentators are of the view that the fund (even if money is found to beef it up) is not large enough to appease the markets.

4 A large part of the Greek debt being "haircut" is tied up with Greek pension funds, ie the value of Greek pensions has been halved. Quite what the views of the Greek people will be, when they realise that their financial future has been cut in half is anyone's guess!

Real people are being affected by the decisions made by the clowns "leading" the Eurozone, the clowns would do well to remember that they only remain in office under the sufferance of the people.

Friday, August 5, 2011

It's The Politicians Stupid!

As markets throughout the world plunge, on fears of another financial crisis, the blame for this can be laid full square at the feet of the politicians.

Those in the US who used the stage of Capitol Hill for their self serving antics over the debt ceiling and the "leaders" of Europe, who have behaved and bickered with crass stupidity, are equally to blame.

José Manuel Barroso, the inept President of the European Commission, publicly warned that Eurozone countries are failing to stop the “contagion” of the debt crisis. All very well, maybe. However, by publicly stating that, he needless to say spooked the markets.

To add to the feeling of panic, Italy publicly stated that China has told it that if the European Central Bank will not buy Italian debt, why should China?

I have to ask, by making this public, what exactly were the Italians thinking?

1 It spooks the market even more

2 It shows that they themselves are desperate, as clearly they are trying to offload their debt to all and sundry.

Add into the melting pot the fact the the "leaders" of Europe recently claimed, with self inflated pride, that they had "solved" the Eurozone crisis and that they had earned their holidays and you have a recipe for disaster.

Take all of the above together, and it is self evident that the blame for the current crisis can be attributed to the politicians. Politicians who clearly do not understand that markets are driven by primal instincts (fear, greed, euphoria and a pack mentality).

Until the politicians actually "get it", the crisis will continue and worsen.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Chinese Whispers II

AFP report that the Chinese ratings agency (Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd.) has stated that, because the USA had allowed the Dollar to weaken, the USA is in effect defaulting on its debts.

In November last year Dagong reduced its rating on the US to A+ from AA, citing a deteriorating intent and ability to repay debt.

The Chinese are far from happy with the weakening of the Dollar, as they hold over $1Trillion in Dollar denominated debt.

This issue will cause considerable friction between the US and China.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Chinese Whispers

It seems that it is not just Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (aka "PIGS") that are under the gimlet eyes of the ratings agencies.

The UK has now also come under attack from the ratings agencies. Bloomberg reports that Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., one of China's official ratings firms, has cut its credit rating for the UK by one notch to A+.

Dagong cite the UK's deteriorating ability to repay debt, much the same reason used by other agencies when they downgraded the "PIGS".

However, we are not alone, the firm also reduced its rating on the US to A+ from AA last November citing a deteriorating intent and ability to repay debt.

Cynics might argue that ratings agencies' ratings/prophecies more often than not become self fulfilling, as the very act of downgrading a country increases that country's costs of borrowing.

Were the agencies to abuse their power, there would be opportunities for individuals, companies and countries connected with them to make a lot of money at the expense of others.

Needless to say, as with other aspects of the global financial services industry, the behaviour, quality and ethics of these agencies is beyond reproach.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

China To Overtake US

The IMF has issued a prediction that the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy by 2016.

The forecast, based on "purchasing power parities", shows that China's gross domestic product (GDP) will rise from $11.2 trillion in 2011 to $19 trillion in 2016, while US GDP will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion.

China's share of the global economy will rise from 14% to 18%, whilst the US share will fall to 17.7% over this period.

To add to America's economic woes, Standard & Poor's have downgraded US sovereign debt.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Having One's Cake and Eating It

It would seem that, according to the Telegraph, the EU (despite wanting to shore up the fragile Euro) fears Chinese investment in the currency/bond markets.

For why?

The EU fears that this is an "evil" plot by the Chinese to weaken their own currency (as the USA has done with quantitative easing).

Additionally, the EU fears that this may be a ploy by the Chinese to garner political influence and possibly push for a relaxation of the arms embargo.

All very well, but if the EU expects to operate in the real world it will have to accept that this is the norm in the real world free market economy.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Outlook - Stormy G20 Predicted

The atmosphere at the forthcoming G20 summit in Seoul later this week is likely to be somewhat heated, following on from pre summit soundbites issued by the Chinese and then Barack Obama over the recent move by the US Federal reserve to print $600BN (Quantitative Easing 2).

China, and some other countries, are not happy that this tactic pushes the Dollar lower, thus making their exports to the US more expensive and the lessening the value of their Dollar based investments.

Barack Obama responded, during a press conference in India, by saying that QE2 would bring about higher US growth rates which would be "good for the world as a whole". The US is also of the view that the Chinese Yuan is undervalued, and are pressing the Chinese to let it float higher.

The G20 will see an intensification of this "spat", as various countries begin to draw battle lines over possible future "currency wars".

Monday, August 16, 2010

China Rising

China has now overtaken Japan as the world's second largest economy, as per data relating to Q2 2010.

Japan's GDP for that period was $1.288 trillion, whilst China's was $1.337 trillion.

According to Goldman Sachs, China will overtake the USA as the world's largest economy by 2027.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Nervous Markets

The markets displayed nerves today, ie indexes fell, as a result of disappointing Chinese financial data that showed a slowing of growth, and a warning that Moodys may downgrade Spain's debt rating in the coming months.

Meanwhile there are riots on the streets of Athens, as people protest about government plans to impose austerity measures.

My advice to the protesters is to focus your anger (peacefully I might add) not against your government's austerity measures, but against your government's decision to remain in the Euro; which is preventing the government from using monetary policy to ease the debt crisis.

Monday, June 21, 2010

China Gives Markets a Boost

China's announcement that it is to end its two year peg of the Yuan against the Dollar, and effectively to allow a managed rise in the value of the Yuan, has given world stock markets a much needed boost.

Any rise in the Yuan will be gradual, as the Chinese will manage its rise carefully. However, markets have taken the announcement as a sign that China is confident about its economy.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Outsourcing To China

Those of you who are fed up with ringing your "local" bank or financial institution hoping to talk to a "local" operator, only to find yourselves talking to an operator based in India, may be less than happy to learn that the fetish for outsourcing financial services helplines etc continues.

Indeed, the call centres are likely to be moved even further away from the UK, as the Chinese have now been identified by financial institutions as a source of even cheaper labour.

A report, titled Global Financial Services Offshoring Report 2007, issued by Deloitte notes that India continues to be the global offshoring hub. However, it is likely to lose its share of two-thirds of offshored staff in the next 10 years due to competition from China.

Quote:

"India remains offshoring's hub but is likely to lose share in the future. The DTT GFSI group estimates that about two-thirds of global offshored staff is employed in the sub-continent. China threatens to be India's principal offshoring competitor.

Some 200 million Chinese people are currently learning English, providing a growing pool of skilled labour that may compete with India over the next 10 years. China's share of offshore labour is already rising, with a third of financial institutions now having back-office (mainly IT) processes based in China
."

Needless to say, the financial institutions will never bother to consult with their customers over their outsourcing arrangements or the security of their outsourcing arrangements.

Friday, March 16, 2007

China Approves Property Laws

From the NYTimes:

After more than a quarter-century of market-oriented economic policies and record-setting growth, China on Friday enacted its first law to protect private property explicitly.

The measure, which was delayed a year ago amid vocal opposition from resurgent socialist intellectuals and old-line, left-leaning members of the ruling Communist Party, is viewed by its supporters as building a new and more secure legal foundation for private entrepreneurs and the country’s urban middle-class home and car owners.

But delays in pushing it through the Communist Party’s generally pliant legislative arm, the National People’s Congress, and a ban on news media discussion of the proposal, raise questions about the underlying intentions and the governing style of President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, experts say.


First a BIG caveat: I have no knowledge of internal Chinese politics, nor do I have any knowledge of its legal system. Therefore I can't comment on the sincerity of this law.

But, this is a very interesting development from a historical perspective. A passing analysis of democratic development indicates property rights are an essential element in the democratic development. I think you can successfully argue that the growth of the middle class was in fact a primary reason for Democratic development during the Renaissance.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Traveling Again to China, Paulson Forgets to Pack Workers’ Rights

Tula Connell is with the AFL-CIO. I have asked her to contribute to this blog to help enlarge the conversation about unions, international trade and, well, anything else that pops into her fertile mind. - Bonddad

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson needs a new appointment scheduler.

Someone on his staff failed to notice that as the former Goldman Sachs honcho heads to China this week, the U.S. Trade Representative was slated to released the 2006 Report to Congress on China's WTO Compliance. The report, issued today, is highly critical of the Chinese government's failure to meet their obligations. It places a “particular emphasis on reducing IPR [intellectual property rights] infringement levels in China” and on pressing China to make greater efforts to institutionalize market mechanisms and make its trade regime more predictable and transparent.

The timing couldn’t be worse for Paulson.

When Bush and the Republican Congress rammed through China’s membership in 2001, they assured us that making China a full partner would ease the path for that nation to lower its trade barriers and bring its laws and regulations into compliance with international standards. In fact, the opposite occurred: Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the U.S. deficit has grown to more than $200 billion. In 2005, the trade deficit with China grew by 25 percent to $202 billion—the largest bilateral deficit in world history.

Behind this unsustainable trade deficit are two major factors: China’s policy to devalue its currency and its abysmal workers’ rights record. In fact, the Treasury Department once again is delaying the release of its semi-annual report on currency—so as not to embarrass Paulson while in China. Although the undervaluation of China's currency has become accepted fact, every Treasury report to date has failed to suggest taking any action.

While Paulson will chat with China’s leaders about the China’s currency devaluation, he has no intention of bringing up workers’ rights.

He should—if not because ethical principles call for providing fellow humans with decent working conditions and living wages, then for our own self-interest as a nation. Because addressing China’s human rights violations is one important step toward reversing the declining U.S. trade balance with China.

The deterioration of working conditions in China continues every year, with nearly non-existent enforcement of wage, overtime, safety and health and environmental laws. Oppressing Chinese workers is the functional equivalent of devaluing currency. In failing to address the systematic abuse of its workers, the Chinese government further displaces U.S. jobs.

American companies like Wal-Mart rack up billions of dollars in profits by taking advantage of the artificially low wages made possible by the Chinese government’s repression of democracy, political dissent and fundamental human and workers’ rights.

Application of an International Trade Commission model shows that up to 973,000 manufacturing jobs and 1,235,000 total jobs are displaced by China's repression of labor rights. The nonprofit Economic Policy Institute (EPI) estimates 410,000 manufacturing jobs were lost to China between 2002 and 2004. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission studies conclude that between 70,000 and 100,000 jobs are moved annually to China, and those numbers accelerated after 2001.

The 2006 annual report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (a bipartisan, congressionally appointed commission) also provides evidence that China has been seriously inconsistent in meeting its obligations as a member of the WTO. The report backs up conclusions in the AFL-CIO’s Bush administration report card on China and an AFL-CIO Solidarity Center study on workers’ rights in China.

Workers Rights in China graphic

In July, the AFL-CIO filed the second workers’ rights case against the Chinese government. The Bush administration rejected the petition, despite the lack of improvement for Chinese workers since we filed the first petition in 2004. As we filed the petition this year, workers from across the nation sent nearly 70,000 letters to President Bush and Congress urging them to take action to halt the abuse of China’s workers.

For instance:

  • Chinese mines are the most dangerous in the world, with more than 10,000 Chinese miners dying in industrial accidents each year (some 80 percent of the worldwide total).
  • Rates of illness and injury have never been higher in China’s manufacturing sector as officials of China’s own Work Safety Administration conceded as recently as February 2006.
  • There are as many as 10 to 20 million child workers in China—from one-eighth to one-quarter the number of factory workers.
  • China’s minimum working age standard is widely violated, and the Chinese government does little to enforce the standard. As the U.S. State Department stated in its 2005 Human Rights Report on China, “The government continued to maintain that the country did not have a widespread child labor problem.”
  • The Chinese government implements an extensive system of forced labor camps. The precise number of forced prison laborers is unknown, but estimates range from 1.75 million to 6 million and higher.
The right to strike was removed from China's Constitution in 1982 because the political system had "eradicated problems between the proletariat and enterprise owners." But as aggregate unpaid wages have risen to record levels, along with increased child labor, Chinese workers are walking off the job in massive numbers, despite the illegality of their actions and the risks involved.

According to figures from China’s Ministry of Public Security, there was a sharp rise in officially registered public disturbances in 2005. Large-scale incidents of "mass gatherings to disturb social order" rose by 13 percent. In one report, "mass protests" or "mass incidents," including riots, demonstrations and collective petitions, rose from 58,000 in 2003 to 87,000 in 2004.

These abuses allow producers in China, including many multinational and U.S. corporations, to operate in an environment free of independent unions, to pay illegally low wages and to profit from the widespread violation of workers’ basic human rights.

The second factor behind China’s trade advantage, the nation’s deliberate undervaluing of its currency, the yuan, enables the Chinese government to export products at an artificially low price—running up the U.S. trade deficit and costing good American jobs. In fact, the yuan is estimated to be undervalued by as much as 40 percent.

An AFL-CIO report shows China’s fixed currency rate artificially lowers the price of its goods by 40 percent and subsidizes exports, putting U.S. companies and workers at a disadvantage. The lack of currency flexibility has been a major factor in U.S. job losses and a trade deficit with China that hit $202 billion last year.

In a letter to the Wall Street Journal earlier this year, AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Richard Trumka said the Chinese government’s deliberate undervaluing of its currency is an anchor “that is dragging down American manufacturing and the middle class:”

Currency manipulation is one of the primary reasons for the massive bilateral trade imbalance between the United States and China, as well as for the flood of investments by U.S and other multinational companies. On top of the Chinese government’s record capital investments in manufacturing, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country increased from $46.8 billion in 2000 to $60.3 billion in 2005. Seventy percent of China’s FDI is in manufacturing, with heavy concentration in export-oriented companies and advanced technology sectors. The dangers of this model of development are apparent: job and technical capacity loss in the U.S., growing inequality and political and financial instability in China, and the accumulation of nearly $1 trillion in U.S. dollar assets by the Chinese government. This is also a development model based upon the brutal repression of workers’ rights and human rights.
Last year, the Senate introduced legislation sponsored by Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) that would have imposed a 27.5 percent tariff on all Chinese imports if that country did not raise the value of its currency within 12 months. The bill was never introduced in the House, and Senate leaders chose not to bring it up in the last session.

Paulson fears the next Congress will pass a tariff, and this is his last-gasp trip to convince China to voluntarily devalue its currency.

But unlike the 109th, the new Congress not only is more likely to take a firmer line on China’s currency devaluation, it will insist that the administration include workers’ rights as a key part of trade agreements and bilateral negotiations.

And the AFL-CIO will be working with Congress to ensure that going forward, trade deals aren’t just free but fair.

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