Bonddad Linkfest

Romney's path to victory (WaPo)EU inflation at 2.6% (BB)German retail turnover at .8% in April (FSO)German retail sales don't bode well for GDP (Marketwatch) Europe's growth challenge (WaPo)Soy Bean Prices Soaring, leading to food inflation fears (FT)US industrial slowdown may by on the horizon (FT)China's appetite for cereals lifts corn prices (FT)Spain's economy contracts for second quarter (Marketwatch)EU private lending slows in March (Marketwat...

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A Closer Look At the GDP Report

Let's take a deeper look at the latest GDP report, starting with the percentage change in GDP and the contribution of various components to this number.First, we see that personal consumption expenditures (PCEs) added 2.2 to GDP -- or, put another way, PCEs accounted for all growth.  This is encouraging, as we need the US consumer to spend in...

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This is the graph that scares me

- by New Deal democrat Median wage growth:  This is the increase that 50% of workers are getting more than, and 50% are getting less than, on a year-over-year basis.  It has been running at under 2% at all times since the financial collapse of 2008.So, even if inflation runs at the very modest rate of only 2% (and for most of the...

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Spain Falls Into Recession --

It's yet another example of the amazing, unprecedented and roaring success of austerity!From Marketwatch:The Spanish economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2012, the second straight quarter of economic decline, officially putting the economy into recession, according to preliminary data released by the national statistics office. In the fourth-quarter of 2011, gross domestic product fell 0.3%. On an annual basis, GDP fell 0.4% in the first quarter, compared to a 0.3% annual rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2011. The government...

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Barclays Accused of "Reckless Disregard"

An independent report prepared for Guardian Care Homes (GCH), which operates 30 care homes, by derivatives experts at JC Rathbone Associates accuses Barclays of "reckless disregard" over its sale of a set of complex derivatives to GCH.GCH are suing Barclays for £36M, and the report will be used in its case against the bank.The Telegraph notes that the report alleges that the terms of the loan posed "a risk of breach of covenant", while also claiming that the hedges sold to GCH were never likely to have protected it against rising...

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Morning Market Analysis

My opinion about the markets:The US equity markets are moving into a period of consolidation, largely caused by slowing world economies and less than robust US  growth.  I don't see a meltdown, but sideways consolidation.Let's take a look at the three major equity indexes:Since February, the IWMs have been trading between 78 and 84 with a...

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100 False Prophecies by the Pied Piper of Doom: 20 - 31, bankruptcies are gonna crash and burn the economy! (2)

- by New Deal democratIntroductory note: For those of you who aren't aware of the past history of the bloggers here with Daily Kos, or don't want to hear more about it, please pass on. Regular economic blogging will resume tomorrow. For those of you who do, here is the third installment in this periodic series.  Once again I request that...

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Weekly Indicators: April ends in a sea of green edition

- by New Deal democratIn the rear view mirror, first quarter GDP was reported preliminarily at +2.2% on an annualized basis.  This was below expectations.  The biggest negative was government spending on all levels including a marked decrease in military spending due to the end of the war in Iraq.  This was still positive enough to...

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Weekend Weimar, Beagle and Pitbull

It's that time of the week again. NDD will post the indicators on Saturday. I'll be back on Monday. Until then....

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The US' Austerity in Charts -- Or, "Where is the Government Takeover Again?"

This chart is from Krugman:This is actually pretty important - and it's a point we've made a few times.  A big reason for the high unemployment rate is the cut in government jobs, especially at the state and local level.  As Krugman notes:If public employment had grown the way it did under Bush, we’d have 1.3 million more government...

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A few notes on GDP: OK, but not good enough

  - by New Deal democratBy now I'm sure you've read several analyses elsewhere of this morning's GDP report.  I have no desire to duplicate those analyses, but wanted to add a few points relevant to what this means to everyman and everywoman.1.  This is just a preliminary estimate.  In two months we could find out it was actually 1% or actually 3%.  And there will be even more revisions in a year or two.2.  Assuming the final result is close to this estimate, we have an economy that grew enough in the first quarter...

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Why Austerity Doesn't Work

From Krugman:For the past two years most policy makers in Europe and many politicians and pundits in America have been in thrall to a destructive economic doctrine. According to this doctrine, governments should respond to a severely depressed economy not the way the textbooks say they should — by spending more to offset falling private demand...

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Morning Market Analysis

The SPYs spent 12 days consolidating between the 136-139 level.  However, yesterday, prices popped higher, breaking out of the range.The daily chart shows prices moving beyond the trading range along with a buy signal about to emerge from the MACD.  However, given the fundamental backdrop, I'm not thrilled by this rally and need to see a...

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Spanish Youth Unemployment Soars

As our EU overlords seek to impose further austerity measures on their subjects, whilst at the same time seeking an increase in their own budget for 2013 of 6.8%, it is worthwhile remembering that the EU financial straitjacket is having real consequences for real people.Spanish unemployment figures have hit a record level of 5,639,500 at the end of March (24.4%), with youth unemployment at a shocking level of 52%.The EU may care to pause and reflect on those figures for a moment, before it continues with its self destructive quest to fill its bloated...

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Bonddad Linkfest

Orders for Big Ticket Items Fall 4.2% (Marketwatch)Conference Boards Australian LEI unchanged (Conference Board)Latest Australian CB Minutes (RBA)Business climate indicator for the EU (EU)Topping or Consolidation (BP)Fed Statement (FRB)Bernanke has a lot of explaining to do (FT)South Korean growth slips to 2.8% (FT)Draghi calls for growth compact (FT)BoJ easing will remain in Japan (...

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Should We Be Concerned About the Following?

There have been a few economic statistics over the last few weeks -- coming from the US -- that are concerning, although certainly not fatal.  Consider the following:Durable goods orders peaked in January a bit below the 216,000 level, but are now declining.  For the last 5 months, the number has clustered around the 208 level.Initial claims...

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Is the US/China Trade Balance Stabilizing?

The above chart is simply US exports - Chinese imports.  What's interesting is that it appears to have three stages:1.) 1985-2000; the slow build-up.2.) 2000-2009/10: a massive move into an increased trade deficit where we see China become an incredibly strong and important trading partner3.) the 2009/10 period to today -- a possible leveling-off.It's...

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Britain Back in Recession?

According to figures released by the ONS, the UK is back in recession.However, as with all figures produced by the ONS, the data needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. ONS figures are notoriously unreliable and as with all previous figures they will be revised upwards in the coming weeks, thus taking Britain out of recessi...

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OK, make that 101 false prophecies . . .

- by New Deal democrat The Pied Piper of Doom, March 7, 2012 (after Barry Ritholtz published Bonddad's "Message to political bloggers: please stop writing about economics, you really suck at it"): I don't think you'll be seeing much more of that "other" blogger's economic spin on behalf of the status quo over at Ritholtz' blog, going forward. (A little birdie told me that. And, I think it's an accurate statement. We shall see...) Barry Ritholtz' The Big Picture blog, April 25, 2012:People Are Finally Figuring Out: Austerity Is Stupid...

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Morning Market Analysis

Given the news from the UK, let's start with their market:The UK ETF is actually trading in a fairly tight trading range between ~16.8 and 17.75.  Prices are right above the 200 day EMA and the shorter EMAs are tangled with the 200 day. EMA.  The MACD has given a buy signal, but it's still in negative territory, so ideally prices should move...

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UK In Technical Recession; Or, No REALLY, Austerity is an Incredibly Stupid Idea

I wrote the first 1/2-2/3 of this story over the weekend,hence the reason for the somewhat backwards presentation of material.  The GDP graphs do not include the latest information.  However, it goes without saying (so I'll go ahead and say it), yet another country is learning a lesson the hard way.It's another successful austerity program!...

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Housing overview part 2: prices

- by New Deal democrat  In the first part of this overview, we looked at housing sales and construction, with its attendant effects on employment and GDP. It appears that 6 years after the housing bust started, we are finally seeing a modest uptrend from a very low level. Now let's look at housing prices. If sales and construction are 3 years...

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