Weekly Indicators: springtime getaway edition

- by New Deal democratThis is a slightly truncated version of Weekly Indicators, as I'm preparing it before leaving on a weekend trip, where I will be doing my part to assist the recovery.The monthly data releases this week included GDP, which was unrevised. The alternative GDI measure, however, came through very strong for the 4th quarter of last year. Case-Shiller house prices continued to fall. Durable goods rebounded, but did not overcome January's large drop. Chicago's PMI remained strongly positive. Consumer confidence increased. Personal...

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Greek Bonds Worthless

The Bundesbank announced yesterday that it will refuse to accept Greek, Irish or Portuguese sovereign/bank bonds; ie it will cease to lend to commercial banks that use Greek, Irish or Portuguese bonds as collateral. As ekathimerini points out:"It also means that the credibility of the new bonds issued is no different to that of the old ones they have replaced."This effectively kills the European peripheral bond market and, by definition, the current structure of the Eurozone.It is now only a matter of time before Greece, and other peripheral nations,...

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Weekend Weimar, Beagle and Pit Bull

It's that time of the week again.  It's time to think about anything except the economy or the markets.  NDD will do an abbreviated weekly indicators this week.  I'll be back on Monday.  Until then ....

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ECRI's got some more 'splainin to do

- by New Deal democratI feel kind of bad continuing to pick on ECRI. Their 2009 end-of-recession call was a once in a generation bullseye. I appreciate their approach. I even understand, if I don't like, their need for a black box.But nobody's perfect. I certainly haven't been. And the evidence contrary to their recession forecast continues to accumulate.First, here's Lakshman Achuthan on Bloomberg, on December 8, 2011:Achuthan also noted that “the other half of the GDP report,” gross domestic income or GDI (which tends to be the more accurate...

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No, Really, Austerity is A Really Stupid Idea That Hurts Growth

Now that we've gotten the final revision to 4Q GDP, let's take a look at the data for the last two years  to see where we're growing and where we're not. The above chart simply shows the percentage change in GDP from the previous quarter.  The first two quarters of 2010 were good, but then we saw a slowdown in the second half 2010.  ...

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Morning Market Analysis

The 30 minute QQQ chart shows that this week's price action -- at least so far -- has been a total wash.  Prices rallied on Monday and Tuesday, but retreated on Wednesday and Thursday.   On the chart we see two important price levels: 67.4 -- which was hit near the end of trading on 3/21, and 67.2, which was hit on 3/22/.  Both...

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Statement of The Eurogroup - Deconstructed

I have deconstructed today's statement of the Eurogroup, my comments are in blue.30 March 2012Statement of the EurogroupThe stability and integrity of the Economic and Monetary Union have required swift and vigorous measures that had been implemented recently, together with further qualitative moves towards a genuine Fiscal Stability Union.This is a lie, there have been no "swift and vigorous measures". In order to further improve market confidence and in accordance with the agreement reached at the Euro Summit on 9 December 2011 and reiterated...

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Juncker Talks Bollocks

Euro Group President, Jean-Claude Juncker, has just claimed that Greece's failure to make a timely repayment of their foreign law bonds that are not exchanged does not constitute default.I see....

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Bonddad Linkfest

UK Treasury didn't see crisis and needs reform (FT)Rousseff again criticizes western economies for "currency war." (FT)Bulls limping into the end of the first quarter (FT)ECB fails to stem reduction in lending (FT)Coffee is the worst performing commodity this year (FT)Durable Goods increase 2.2% (Marketwatch)SPR release looking more possible (BB)Yen up on haven flow (BB)Chinese cotton demand to pick-up (BB)Rupee drops on lower growth prospects (...

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So, why are right-wingers on the blog list?

- by New Deal democratSome months ago another progressive blogger took a shot at us because some very un-progressive bloggers are on our blog list. And both Bonddad and I have written some very pointed criticism of some of Mish's posts. So, here's why Mish, and Mark Perry, and Scott Grannis (Calafia Beach Pundit) are on the blog list.The blog list is designed to enable you to use this page as a jumping off point to read most if not all of the interesting economic and investing commentary that is published in any given day. Check in two or...

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Can the US Markets Continue Rallying With the Weekly BRiC Charts Showing Weakness?

The weekly Brazilan chart shows a market in the middle of a correction.  After rallying to the 70 price level, prices have retreated to eh 65 price level, which is right above the 50 day EMA and Fibonacci fan arc.  However, the underlying technicals are still bullish -- the MACD is still rising and the volume indicators show money flowing...

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Morning Market Analysis

Today I want to focus on the Asian and Australian market to show how "China-centric" these regions equity markets have become.  Over the last month or so, there has been increased talk and analysis to the effect that China is slowing down.  And while the US market is rallying, Asian markets are focusing on China's decreased activity, thereby...

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UK In Double Dip Recession

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has reported that the UK economy shrank in the first three months of the year. Between January and March economic output fell, compared to the previous quarter, at an annual rate of -0.4%.Given that there were three months of negative growth at the end of 2011, this means that the UK is now yet again officially in recession (ie a double dippe...

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Pope To Pray For Euro

The FT reports that a press release has been sent out today by the office of Herman Van Rompuy, announcing yet another emergency eurozone summit – on April 1.“The presence of His Holiness the Pope affords an opportunity to pray for divine intervention to save the euro.This is now seen as the most credible strategy.”Oddly enough, the press release is not on the European Council's website!Here is the text of the press release: COUNCIL OFTHE EUROPEAN UNIONENBrussels, 29 March 20128255/12PRESSE 140Eurozone summit next weekendPress StatementIt has...

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Bonddad Linkfest

OECD urges EU overall (FT)\Springtime for US Housing (Marketwatch)Pending home sales, starts and completions (Big Picture)The yen's looming day of reckoning (Marketwatch)Latest German Consumer report (GFK)Beef prices reach second highest ever (Drover's)Consumer confidence dips (Marketwatch)Case Shiller falls (Marketwat...

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Yen At Critical Support Levels; Japan's Economy May Be In the Balance

Consider the following chart:The above chart is a 10 year chart of the yen.  For the last four years, it has been in an upward trend.  However, it is now just through crucial support levels.   Prices have moved through the 10 and 20 week EMAs and the MACD has given a sell signal.  In short, this chart is looking to drop sharply...

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ECRI unintentionally undercuts its own recession prediction

- by New Deal democratSeveral data series used in economic indicators may have special issues rendering thier signals misleading. Two important ones are both components of ECRI's Weekly Leading Index.The first is purchase mortgage applications. Yesterday I wrote that the WLI would probably be more positive if ECRI were continuing to include its original...

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Crisis Almost Over - LOL!

The Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, who is evidently something of a clown like his predecessor has claimed that the Eurozone's woes are "almost over":"The eurozone has gone through a huge crisis. I believe that this crisis is now almost over."Sure enough the markets have fallen as, quite rightly, they attach little credence to anything that a Euro politician says these da...

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Greek Banks Have Guts Ripped From Them

Reuters reports that firms and consumers are, unsurprisingly, continuing to withdraw money from Greek banks. Private sector deposits in Greek banks fell by 2.7%, after a 3% fall in January. Deposits at the end of February were Euro170.1BN, the lowest level since October 2006. For why?No one trusts the Greek financial system anymo...

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Morning Market Analysis

Yesterday, the grain complex took a big hit, as traders dumped the corn contract.  Prices have now moved through the late October price level twice in the last two weeks, indicating weakness.  The big news for this market coming up is the crop report on Friday (shades of Trading Places, I realize).Industrial metals are still bouncing between...

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How to make an economic index subjective: change it!

- by New Deal democratOver the last week I've been re-examining and updating my January forecast. While I believed there would be weakness in the first half of the year, I considered it unlikely that it would bring about an actual recession. This puts my view at odds with ECRI's (although it is right on point with the contrary viewpoint of the...

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Europe Isn't Looking Too Good Right Now

Consider the following information from Markit.  This is their respective PMI for the manufacturing and service sectors in Europe.All countries dropped at the end of last year.  Only Germany has a positive PMI -- and that is a weak reading.New orders have been declining for the last year and are now slightly negative.Overall, employment is...

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