Bonddad Linkfest

ECB makes additional loans (WSJ)Japanese industrial production bears estimates (WSJ)EU inflation drops in January (WSJ)Yesterday's drop in durable goods shouldn't worry you (Real Time Economics)FDIC's quarterly banking profile (FDIC)Is housing really recovering (Dr. Ed)Richmond Fed's manufacturing index increases (Richmond Fed)Factors in recent oil prices (EconBrowser)Four Fiscal Phonies (Krugman)\Highest yielding stocks continue to outperform (Bespo...

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The case for economic pessimism: exhausted consumers

- by New Deal democratRecently most important items of economic data -- housing permits, car sales, new jobless claims, payrolls, consumer confidence, etc. -- have all moved substantially in the right direction. But there is always a bearish case to be made, and the best one, it seems to me, focuses on the consumer.Here's a graph of real hourly...

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1954: PCEs

The above chart shows the percentage contribution PCEs made to to GDP for the four quarters of 1954, along with the contribution of various sub-parts of PCEs. Note the incredible strength of PCEs -- consumers are spending a lot of money on an assortment of items. The above chart is from the Economic Report to the President, 1955.  It simply highlights...

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Morning Market Analysis

A few people have noted that they are having trouble viewing images.  Not being the most tech savvy person, I'm not exactly sure why this is happening.  However, over the last few weeks, I've been copying images from various websites and pasting them into the blog as opposed to saving them on my computer and uploading them.  Today, I'm...

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Happy LTRO Day II

Well my earlier bet on LTRO as being around Euro650BN was wide of the mark!The ECB's 3 year LTRO has just been announced as being Euro529BN, given to the 800 banks which have come forward with their begging bow...

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Happy LTRO Day

At 10:20GMT today we will know how much money has been borrowed under the ECB's LTRO scheme, which is being used to sandbag banks in the likely event of a sovereign debt default.The ECB claims that the money will be used to stimulate growth, the reality is that it will be placed by the banks at the ECB to be used when the forthcoming Greek default causes a run on the banks.For what it is worth, I am taking a non financial punt on LTRO being around Euro650...

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Bonddad Linkfest

Corn declines on speculations growers are sowing record crop (BB)Bullish commodity bets increase to over 1 million contracts (BB)Commodities record longest rally in 10 months (BB)Yen drops thanks to BOJs statements (BB)Italian bonds are rallying (BB)Investors buying junk bonds at a strong rate (WSJ)European confidence beats estimates (BB)Soybean reserves shrinking the most in 16 years (BB)Santorum and Romney vie for the looney right (Robert Reich)The possum Republicans (David Broo...

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Will Food Prices Derail the Expansion? Part II

In the previous article, I noted that the food component of CPI -- along with various sub-parts of the component -- are at high levels.  In addition, these levels are approaching readings that have preceded previous recession.  Today, I want to look at grains, as these prices are a primary reason for the recent increase in food prices. ...

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