Weekly Indicators: Happy New Year! Edition

- by New Deal democratThe final week of 2010 ended with some long-in-coming good news, as Initial Jobless Claims dropped below 400,000 for the first time since before the 2008 crash. The 4 week average fell to 414,000.In other news, the Chicago PMI was also a complete upside blowout, rising to the highest reading in over 20 years! Consumer confidence declined slightly. House prices continued to decline. On balance, I believe this is a good thing, as it makes housing more affordable (but I support bankruptcy cramdown legislation for existing...

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Have a Safe And Happy New Year

To all our readers...NDD is going to put up his weekly summation on Friday, but I think that's about it until next Monday. Until then, have a safe and happy New Years...

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Chicago PMI ends 2010 data with a BANG!

- by New Deal democratThe Chicago Purchasing Managers reported that its Indexachieved its highest level since July 1988, expanding for the fifteenth consecutive month.BUSINESS ACTIVITY:- PRODUCTION reached its highest levels since October 2004;- NEW ORDERS improved to 2005 levels;- EMPLOYMENT reached its highest level in more than 5 years;- PRICES...

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Jobless Claims Drop Below 400,000

From Marketwatch:The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for jobless benefits fell 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000 in the week ended Dec. 25, hitting the lowest level since July of 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected initial claims of 413,000. The four-week average of new claims,...

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Yesterday's Market

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Does Copper Bode Well For the New Year?

Click for a larger imageCopper is a great indicator of overall economic activity. Notice that we're seeing prices near their highest level in five years. In addition to a declining dollar, this also indicates demand is strong, which should bode well for the new ye...

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Case Shiller Drops For Third Month

From the WSJ:Home prices across 20 major metropolitan areas fell 1.3% in October from September, the third straight month-over-month drop, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index released Tuesday. Many economists expect the declines to continue into at least next spring, erasing most of the gains made since prices bottomed out in early 2009. The housing market, which appeared poised for a recovery earlier in the year, now could be heading for a second downward drift. "This looks like a double-dip [in housing] is pretty much...

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Yesterday's Market

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The Victims of Economic Triage: a response to Bob Herbert

- by New Deal democratToday's NY Times column by Bob Herbert entitled "The Data and the Reality" is getting a lot of play. It starts out:I keep hearing from the data zealots that holiday sales were impressive and the outlook for the economy in 2011 is not bad. Data zealot here, reporting for duty.Maybe they’ve stumbled onto something in their windowless...

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Holiday Sales Are Strongest in Years

From the NY Times:Shoppers spent more money this holiday season than even before the recession, according to preliminary retail data released on Monday. After a 6 percent free fall in 2008 and a 4 percent uptick last year, retail spending rose 5.5 percent in the 50 days before Christmas, exceeding even the more optimistic forecasts, according...

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Real Personal Savings suggest strong GDP, less Unemployment in 2011

- by New Deal democratOver at Firedoglake, David Dayen wonders how economists can say the economy will be "good" in 2011 if unemployment remains above 9%. Atrios agrees.Bill McBride at Calculated Risk has updated his graph of "Okun's Law" showing that we need growth of 5%+ to cause the unemployment rate to decline under 9%.In the last couple of weeks,...

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Yesterday's Market

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The Fall of The WSJ

When I was in college in the late 1980s, newspapers were still the predominate form of news transmission. I had a professor who told me to read the WSJ and NYT every day in order to stay informed. As he was my hero, I took his advice to heart and religiously read both every day. I would carry both papers with me wherever I went and would read them usually drinking a really bad cup of coffee and smoking a Marlboro (which I finally quit a few years ago).Then a really funny thing happened after reading the WSJ for about 6-12 months; I started to...

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Yes, Virginia, this is a Recovery

- by New Deal democratI have been meaning to write a piece like this for awhile, but I couldn't - and still can't - decidehow much should be soothing reason and how much should be intellectual outrage. So this will be some of both. Your mileage may vary.On the one hand, I fully appreciate those who say, essentially, "we're not in a recovery because things are still awful," but on the other hand want to take no prisoners of those who disrespect that the term has an academic meaning that is well known and that requires respect.Well, the Doomorons...

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2011 Predictions

It's nearing the end of the year, so people are making their predictions for the coming year. So, here are mine. Remember that I really don't place much stock in them because there are a ton of factors to consider, but they are fun to make. So, here goes.1.) The economy does not fall into the Abyss; the recovery continues. Despite the near constant call for the near collapse of the economy, it doesn't fall apart, but instead continues to expand. This will not stop the continual calls for doom which will accelerate and become more prolific....

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Yesterday's Market

Click on all images for a larger image. The text on the chart should explain it all. Feel free to leave a comment about this new approach if you li...

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Weekly Indicators: What's in your stocking? edition

- by New Deal democratThis week Americans got both something good and something bad in their stockings. Personal income and spending both continued to rise smartly, showing more evidence that the consumer has more cash, and the consumer is willing to spend it. The savings rate remained basically steady. I'll have an update on this next week. Durable goods orders fell, but if you exclude Boeing, they did rather well. New and existing home sales remained in the tank, but if you do a YoY comparison with 2008 instead of 2009 (which was distorted...

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The Great Railway Seasonal Con Trick

The train companies this Christmas are once again showing their utter contempt for their customers.In order to meet punctuality targets they are running reduced and amended services, thus ensuring that their pockets are lined (by avoiding fines) but making our journeys even more miserable and tedious than they were before.Much like the turkey, these companies can get stuff...

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Santander Screws Up

Santander, the bank with the highest proportion of customer complaints in the UK (216,158 complaints in the first half of 2010, has decided to end the year on a "high" by sending out 35,000 customer statements to the wrong customers.Well done la...

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Happy Holidays

It's the day before Christmas Eve, and things are winding down. Between work and family issues, life has been pretty crazy, so I'm going to wish you all a Merry Christmas. We'll be back on Monday for a holiday shortened week.---- NDD here: I'll put up Weekly Indicators, probably tomorrow. Happy holida...

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Real retail sales and hours worked

- by New Deal democratFollowing up on my last post, I wondered whether the secular shift to hours worked vs. jobs added in recoveries also fit better with the metric of real retail sales.To start with, here is the last ten years of hours worked in private industry vs. private payrolls, measured YoY:The two series fit like tightly, showing ever so...

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New Jobless Claims and the Unemployment Rate continued (II)

- by New Deal democratOn Friday I posted the below graph that showed the very surprising close and leading correlation between initial jobless claims adjusted for population (the "initial jobless claims rate") and the unemployment rate:So close is the correlation that the initial jobless claims rate predicts the unemployment rate 3 months later within...

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