It's that time of the week. Don't think about the market or the economy until Monday. Until then ....
Friday, July 30, 2010
Weekly Indicators: Besides the GDP report edition
- by New Deal democratThis was the week we found out that the Great Recession was even "greater" than we thought, and that we went an entire year with an improving GDP making up about 3/4 of the loss. Can we ask the NBER "Are we there yet?"In addition to the GDP report, monthly reports focused on home sales and, as I pointed out yesterday, show sales...
2Q GDP Gross Private Domestic Investment
Let's continue looking at GDP by looking in more detail at the investment component.Total gross private domestic investment has been increasing at a strong pace for the past three quarters.Investment is non-residential structures increased a bit last quarterAnd businesses moved a ton of money into equipment and software investment. This category of...
2QGDP Personal Consumption Expenditures
Let's take a close look at the PCE component of the GDP report.Total PCEs are increasing at a moderate pace. While they are not setting records, they are certainly holding their own.Services make up the largest percentage of PCE expenditures, comprising about 65% of PCEs. They have expanded for the last three quarters at an uneven pace.Non-durable...
How Is This Recovery Stacking Up?
One of this sites trolls -- Bob Swern -- noted the last two quarters have shown a decrease in growth. So, let's see how this recovery's first four quarters stack up against the previous two recoveries first four quarters in terms of GDP growth.Here is a chart comparing them:The purple lines represent the first four quarters after the 1991 recession....
2Q GDP Up 2.4%
From the BEA:The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.The...
Yesterday's Market
Prices on the long-end of the curve are still below their long-term trend line (a). Notice that preceding that move was a decrease in momentum (b), a drop in the A/D line (c) and the CMF turning negative (d).The 7-10 year part of the curve has the same technical alignment with its indicators. Prices are handing on by a thread.The reason a drop in...
Goldman Sachs Bans Swearing
Goldman Sachs, known by some as the "giant blood sucking squid", has issued a rather bizarre directive to employees banning them from swearing in internal emails.Employees emails will be censored, and unacceptable words removed. Employees are also banned from using swear words with asterisks and shorthand for expletives. Is this due to a sudden twinge of morality?Errrmm...no.Goldman Sachs have been highly embarrassed by the release of emails, during investigations into the bank's conduct, that contained a fair number of swear words.Given human...
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Beige Book Part III -- Employment
From the Federal Reserve:Labor market conditions improved gradually in several Districts. New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Richmond, and Atlanta all reported that labor markets improved, albeit modestly in some cases, while Boston and Dallas reported that employment was steady. Philadelphia, Atlanta, Richmond, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported...
Beige Book -- Part II Consumer Spending
From the Beige Book:Reports on retail sales during the early summer months were generally positive, although in most Districts the increases were modest. Retail sales in the New York, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts were higher than year-earlier sales, and Dallas reported solid gains. But sales in the Boston District were...
Beige Book, Part 1 Manufacturing and Services
Yesterday and tomorrow we get a great deal of information about the US economy. Yesterday the Federal Reserve published the Beige Book and tomorrow we get the first GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter. This is therefore a good a opportunity to take a look at a wide swath of macro-level data to see exactly where we are.Here is the report's summary:Economic...
Has Housing Bottomed?
- by New Deal democratNo, not in prices, that is probably still several years and more than 10% away. But have new home sales and starts bottomed? It looks like we are groping for a bottom now, and it is at least possible that it may have already occurred several weeks ago.The cliff-diving in new home purchases and mortgage applications is a critical...
Metro Bank Opens Its Doors
Britain's financial services industry has, without a doubt, a well deserved lousy reputation for customer care, honesty, service and providing reliable decent products.Therefore it is to be welcomed that Metro Bank, the first new high street bank in 100 years, has opened its doors today.Metro Bank claims that it will revolutionise British banking by offering retail opening hours, unparalleled service (eg toilets in branches) and a simple range of products that will be suitable for everyone. The first branch has been opened in Holborn. It plans...
Yesterday's Market
The long-end of the Treasury curve continues to sell off.However, the middle part is still fluctuating around the longer-term trend line.Yesterday, notice that prices moved in a solid down, up, down pattern.Notice two things on the daily chart. First, prices are gravitating around the 200 day EMA (a). Secondly, ideally, prices will move lower and...
