ADP Sees Job Loss of -23,000

From ADP:Nonfarm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from January 2010 to February 2010 was revised down slightly, from a decline of 20,000 to a decline of 24,000.The March employment decline was the smallest...

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Case Shiller: Good News and Bad News

First, the good news:The rate of decline on a YOY basis is now very close to 0. That is good news. BUTThe month to month number has stalled out. From here, a sideways move wouldn't be a bad thing - in fact, I would personally not mind a bit. However, a sideways move can easily change into a downward move which is my biggest fear.Compounding the...

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Productivity and Employment

From the Washington Post:When workers become more efficient, it's normally a good thing. But lately, it has acted as a powerful brake on job creation. And the question of whether the recent surge in productivity has run its course is the key to whether job growth is finally poised to take off.One of the great surprises of the economic downturn...

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Yesterday's Market

I have added some moderately arbitrary high and low lines to make a simple point: the markets have been in a very narrow range with very little happening to either the high or low end. When looking at either the SPYs, QQQQs or IWMs, there is very little to get excited about. The vast majority of action is occurring on small price swings. Also...

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The Great ISA Rip Off

The Times reports that the Isa tax break created by Gordon Brown to encourage people to save has turned into a £3BN a year rip-off operated by the banks.That at least is the conclusion of Consumer Focus (CF), a consumer watchdog. Consumer Focus has made a formal complaint to the Office of Fair Trading (OFT)alleging that cash Isas pay derisory rates of interest and that banks use unfair obstacles to stop people from switching to better deals. Mike O'Connor, CEO of Consumer Focus, is quoted:"It beggars belief that in 21st century Britain it takes...

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Wednesday Commodities Round-Up

Industrial metals started an uptrend (A) in early February. As prices rose, they consolidated in two downward sloping pennant patterns (C and D). In addition, we see several strong, upward gaps (B) indicating the rally has some strength. Pennant D broke the uptrend, but prices have broken out to the upside at E.A.) The EMA picture is bullish: all...

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Personal Income Unchanged and Spending Up

From the BEA:Personal income increased $1.2 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $1.6 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $34.7 billion, or 0.3 percent. In January, personal income increased $30.4...

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Housing Starts & Completions and Construction Employment

- by New Deal democratAn anonymous commenter raised a good point in response to yesterday's entry, in which I said that, housing permits having bottomed, residential construction jobs presumably had as well. The commenter pointed out that housing completions were still in excess of housing starts, so there were probably continuing layoffs in residential...

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Treasury Tuesdays

First, remember that Treasury prices are at the far side of a head and shoulders formation. A.) In the last week, we've seen prices move strongly lower. First, note the gaps, indicating a serious change in the supply/demand equation. In addition,B.) Prices are forming a possible price island below the neck line of the head and shoulders pattern.The...

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Yesterday's Market

Consider all the following charts and notice that all except the QQQQs are right at technical suppo...

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Why is the Bond Market Selling Off?

This article appeared on Sunday on the blog fivethirtyeight.com. It sums up my thoughts regarding the current situation in the bond market, and more specifically, what the situation means in the broader picture.Last week three auctions of Treasury securities did not go as well as hoped:Demand waned at this week’s auctions of two-, five- and seven-year...

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Welcome to Abnormal Returns and Alphaville Readers

We are glad you are here and flattered to be mentioned on both blo...

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The "Jobless" part of the Recovery is probably ending ... except for Construction

- by New Deal democratThis week is probably going to end with some good news about employment. When nonfarm payrolls are released on Friday, almost everybody, even pessimists, expects it to be a positive number. In part this is a triviality, because the Census Bureau has probably hired about 100,000-150,000 people this month. But even without that...

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