In Response to Mr. Scott's Rebuttal

I response to my article "No, Virginia, Manufacturing Isn't Dead" Mr. Scott has published as article titled The Myth of the Manufacturing Recovery." Regrettably, his rebuttal is deeply flawed both in tone and substance.First, he notes that I plotted a non-logarithmic chart of productivity growth instead of a logarithmic one, the implication being that a logarithmic chart would somehow arrive at a different conclusion. Of course, the first question a reader of Mr. Scott's article should ask is, "if this chart is so damning, why did Mr. Scott not...

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Weekend Weimar and Beagle

Sorry I haven't posted pictures of the kids in a few weeks. Anyway -- it's that time of the week -- stop thinking about the economy or the markets. See you on Monday -- to that end --- think about taking a nap sometime soon ......

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Weekly Indicators: Sometimes the Bear eats you Edition

- by New Deal democratSometimes you eat the bear. Sometimes the bear eats you. When it comes to struggling average Americans, this week the data showed the bear having a feast. The Conference Board's consumer confidence measure slipped a full 10 points, a very dramatic move, although at week's end that was not confirmed by a generally sideways move...

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GDP Revised Higher

From the WSJ:U.S. economic growth accelerated to the strongest pace in over six years late last year, with the Commerce Department Friday revising up its fourth-quarter estimate as businesses slowed inventory reduction and boosted spending, but consumers spent less than first thought.Gross domestic product rose at a 5.9% annual rate October through September, the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2003, the Commerce Department reported. GDP expanded by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2009.A month ago, the department first estimated that GDP --...

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Free Trade Is Not A Job Killer

A recent debate elsewhere interested me enough to do some research on the effects trade has on goods producing employment in the US. Now, I want to state upfront that this is a look at the aggregate and that there are obviously anecdotal cases of individual companies/plants moving to overseas locations for competitive reasons, however, I want to separate...

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More on Initial Unemployment Claims

A.) From the late Spring to the end of last winter, we've seen initial unemployment claims drop from 650,000 to 450,000. The drop was consistent.B.) Since that time, we've seen initial unemployment claims bounce between 450,000 and 500,000.Since the beginning of the year we've seen two periods when there were distortions in the data. The first was...

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Forex Fridays

A.) Prices are at a top, have broken an uptrend but have not moved lower.B.) The EMA picture is strong. The shorter EMAs are above the longer EMAs, all the shorter EMAs are moving higher and prices are above the EM...

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Today's Market

The same analysis applies to the SPYs and the QQQQsA.) Note that prices are floating around the EMAs. Also note that prices are in a pennant formation. Finally, the EMA picture is fairly bullish -- all the EMAs are rising and the shorter EMAs are about to move over the longer EMAs. B.) Momentum is increasing andC.) Money is flowing into the marketA.)...

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Today's Market ... Will Be Up Tomorrow AM

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Welcome to Campaign for American's Future Readers

The bloggers over at Campaign for America's future have asked to use the manufacturing post from a few days who. So, welcome and I hope you enjoy the si...

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New Home Sales Drop

From Reuters:The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales of newly built single-family homes dropped 11.2 percent to an annual rate of 309,000 units, the lowest level since records started in 1963, from 348,000 units in December.It was the third straight monthly drop and the largest percentage decline in a year. Analysts, who had expected a 360,000...

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Jobless claims, Durable goods show worrying bifurcation

- by New Deal democratThis morning Initial Jobless claims were reported at 496,000, the highest in nearly 3 months. The 4 week moving average increased to 473,750. Up until now, the jobless claims data had not broken the downward trendline since March 2009. They have now done so. Add this to the surprise strong drop in the Conference Board's consumer confidence number (not confirmed at this point by the similar, older U of Michigan survey), and you have a worrying setback on the jobs and consumer front.On the other hand, durable goods orders...

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Reading Comprehension 101

Welcome a a new class at the Bonddad Blog. It's called reading comprehension -- a skill shortly lacking in the blogsphere. Consider the argument advanced by many that US economic statistics are horribly off -- it's proof I tell you of a massive conspiracy to quell the masses! The proof is supposedly contained in a NY Times article from November 9:A widening gap between data and reality is distorting the government’s picture of the country’s economic health, overstating growth and productivity in ways that could affect the political debate on...

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Thursday Oil Market Round-Up

In general, the oil market is still in a channel, between lines A and B.A.) Prices are consolidating above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. In addition,B.) Note the EMA picture. The 10 and 20 day EMA are rising. The 10 day EMA has moved through the 50 day EMA and the 20 is about to do so. All three shorter EMAs are risi...

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Today's Market

A.) Prices are consolidating between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci level.A.) Also note the price/EMA picture. Prices are consolidating on top of the EMAs. The shorter EMAs are moving higher, although at a smaller angle. However,Notice the overall position of the microcaps. Instead of falling to the EMA for technical support, they are holding steady,...

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Today's Market

I'll post this in the AM -- swamped right now...

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Consumer Confidence Drops

From Bloomberg:The consumer's mood is definitely downbeat, a strong indication that the jobs market isn't improving. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell back in a surprising and sizable way, down nearly 10 points to 46.0 in February (January revised to 56.5). Expectations, the index's leading component, fell more than 13 points to...

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Case Shiller Mixed

Yesterday, Standard and Poor's released the Case Shiller home price index. In contains good and bad news.On the good side, while the pace of year over year declines is still negative the rate of year over year decline continues to improve.However, on a month to month basis we're seeing price appreciation stall, as evidenced bythe fact a majority of...

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Wednesday Commodities Round-Up

The DBBs appear to be in a classic up(A), down (B) and up (C) pattern which prices just broke at point D. Also note the lack of volume on the stretch C -- the volume is much lower than we would like to have on a rally.A.) Prices rose to the 50% Fibonacci area, but couldn't keep the momentum going any more. Also noteB.) The EMA picture. In a true...

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Today's Market

A.) The drop in consumer confidence hit stocks hard after the open.B.) Prices hit upside resistance from the EMAsC.) After nearing the 38.2% Fibonacci level, prices retreat...

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No, Virginia, US Manufacturing Isn't Dead

First -- a big hat tip to co-blogger SilverOz for starting this line of thought.There is a common theme across the internet: US manufacturing is dead and it's never coming back. Well, there's a big problem with that analysis: it's not true. In fact, as the chart above indicates, it's actually false. Note that since 1960, the index of industrial...

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Case-Schiller CPI turns positive

- by New Deal democratThe Case-Schiller house price index was reported this morning at -3.1% YoY for the month of January. This is the mildest decline in several years. This report, together with last Friday's inflation report, which showed a decline in core inflation due in part to "owner's equivalent rent," is cause for looking at an obscure but...

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Treasury Tuesdays

A.) At the start of the year, the IEFs rallied to the 50% Fibonacci level, but couldn't get above same. Since then, they have pulled back.B.) Note the EMA picture is bearish. First, prices are below the 200 day EMA indicating we're in a bear market. Also notice the shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs and that prices are below all the EMAs.A.)...

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Today's Market

A.) Prices moved through resistance andB.) Are right at the 61.8% Fibonacci numberA.) The 10 day EMA crossed over the 20 day EMA. In additionB.) The EMA picture is improving -- all the EMAs are now moving high...

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An In-Depth Look At the Federal Budget

Last week, the president announced the creation of a panel to look at the federal budget. As such, it seems appropriate to look at the federal budget in detail to get a sense of what's there. All of the information contained in the graphs that follow is available from the CBO. Please click on all images to see a larger image. Also, all data starts...

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