Today's Market

Click for a larger imageOnce the market dropped today's action was pretty much over. There was a cup and handle formation that occurred throughout the day, the but volume spike at the end of the day was insufficient to more the market higher.On the daily chart we have technical problems:First, we have two price islands which are usually considered...

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Chicago PMI Increases

This was a solid report:Chicago's PMI hits the dead-even 50.0 mark in August, indicating no change in business activity from July and a bottoming for the recession in the region. The results, along with indications from other regional surveys, point to similar no-change 50 readings for this week's ISM national reports. Chicago's report showed a huge...

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The Fits and Starts Expansion

Now that I'm on record as saying the recession is over, it's time to look at the recovery.First, the following has been my position regarding the expansion:I am also on record as saying growth will be weak, printing somewhere in the 1% to 2% range with high unemployment. It's extremely important to remember where certain numbers were just recently....

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New Rules for the Comments Section

Going forward, these are the new rules for the comments section.1.) No anonymous comments. If you aren't willing to sign your name to it don't post it. And please, no "Jim Shoos" or "Liz Onnyas" in the name section. Just type in your name. Simple.2.) If you are going to challenge the veracity of government statistics you must provide a reference from a paper written by someone with at least a masters in a relevant discipline (statistics, mathematics, economics etc...). There has been a raging debate in the economic blogosphere about government...

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Market Monday's

Click for a larger imageLet's start with a P and F chart of the SPYs. Notice that over the last month we've seen one heck of a rally. Also note that there has been a ton of volume over the last month or so.And then there is the market breadth issue:The NYSE breadth has been increasing solidly through June.The NASDAQ breadth topped at the beginning...

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Semi-Conductor Sales Increasing

From IBD:Intel surprised Wall Street early Friday, raising its third-quarter guidance in a sign that the tech sector is recovering.It followed other recent signs. Late Thursday, PC maker Dell (DELL) and Marvell Technology Group (MRVL), which makes chips for data storage and other gear, both reported better-than-expected second-quarter results. Marvell's...

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Weekend Weimar and Beagle

It's that time of the week. Go be with your families and loved ones.See you on Mond...

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TARP Making Money So Far

There are a few basic points that seem to get lost in the TARP debate. The first is these are actually preferred shares that pay interest:Click for a larger image.And so far, the government is showing a profit:The actual returns to the Treasury from dividends banks pay on preferred shares issued through the program, in addition to the returns generated...

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Consumer Expectations Improve

- by New Deal democratThe final August University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment was reported this morning. It had been causing me concern as during July and earlier this month, both the current conditions and the future expectations components were decreasing. The expectations component is a Leading Economic Indicator, and was the only such indicator decreasing. Added to job declines and wage stagnation, and there was great cause for concern.Not only did the overall index improve from 63.2 earlier this month to 65.7 (but still below July's...

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FDIC Problem List Grows

Yesterday the FDIC released the quarterly banking profile. The report indicated the industry is still very sick.The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said it had 416 banks on its "problem list" at the end of June, equivalent to about 5% of the nation's banks, up from 305 at the end of March and 117 at the end of June 2008. Problem banks had a combined...

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Today's Market

Click for a larger imageFascinating market yesterday. The market sold off in the morning but then rallied for the rest of the day. Notice how starting at about 11 the market simply turned around and went into a solid day long rally.Looking at the 5 day chart, we see a trading range, which is is more than apparent on the daily chart:Sideways prices...

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Forex Fridays

The weekly chart shows a clear downtrend. The MACD is moving lower along with the RSI. Prices have been and continue to be in a downtrend. All the EMAs are moving lower, the shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs and prices are below all the EMAs.The daily chart is a far harder read. There are no clear price patterns over the last few weeks; prices...

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Shrinkage Less Than Expected

Britain's economy shrank by 0.7% in Q2 2009, confounding the "experts" who had predicted a shrinkage of 0.8%.However, whatever the "experts" feel about this, the reality for those who are unemployed/due to become unemployed is that the recovery is still a very long way o...

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This Recession is Over

Market recap in the AM. I think this needs to stay up for awhile. - by New Deal DemocratBack in the gloomy days of last December, I wrote that an Obama economic recovery was possible in the second half of 2009:Elections have consequences ....[A] new Administration in Washington populated by Economic Adults may ..[appreciate the]... pressing need for...

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A Note On Government Statistics

For the last few years there has been a continuing debate about government statistics. Some people argue they are seriously flawed, some think they are fine. The site most cited in this argument is Shadow Stats. Shadow stats made some claims regarding inflation which I (regrettably) bought into. The BLS later debunked these claims. For a summation of this situation, go to this link.I have not found a single article or paper from a person in the field of statistics or economics that makes a credible claim that the government statistics are...

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Thursday Oil Market Round-Up

The oil charts are very interesting largely because they are pretty conflicted. As always, click on all for a larger image.First, the bullish side. Prices are rising and the EMA picture points to higher levels. The 10 and 20 week EMA are moving higher, the 10 week EMA has crossed over the 50 week EMA and the 20 appears ready to do so. Now the bearish...

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FSA Plays Politics

Fearful of being shut down by the incoming Tory government, the FSA has indulged in popular policies and made some suggestions wrt taxing bankers' bonuses.Lord Turner, the chairman of the FSA, has stated in a discussion in Prospect magazine that he would be happy to consider the use of a new tax on banks to prevent excessive bonus payments.He was quick to point out that the FSA was "not setting out any new policy", a that of course is a matter for the chancellor. Lord Turner wants a tax on financial transactions that would cut banks' profits, thus...

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Today's Market

Click for a larger imageThe markets have been in a trading range since August 24. We have upside resistance at 104.26 and support at 102.5. There are no indications about where the market will move -- we get to wait and s...

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More Good Economic News

Over the last few days we're seen come good economic reports come out. Let's go to the data (click on all pictures for a larger image).On the year over year price chart of the Case Shiller index we're still in negative territory. But, the rate of decline appears to be decreasing. This is a very important development as it indicates the price free-fall...

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A Look At the CBOs Latest Projections

Yesterday the CBO released its long-term budget outlook. It is a lengthy document that involves an area of economics that I find highly questionable: long-term projections. I understand why we must include them and why they are done, but I still find them questionable because they are 50+ year projections. Let's look at a key point:Basically, it's...

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