This is really interesting. Prices moved into the 20 day SMA and bounced lower. HoweverPrices are using the 20 day EMA for technical support. Interesting....
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Case Shiller Drops
Click for a larger imageThere is a lot of "excitement" regarding the upward movement of the graph. Notice this is the first upward move in quite sometime. And -- most importantly -- it's only one month. As a result it's important to not get carried away. It's good news, but it is only one data point in a long series of data that move in the other...
Consumer Confidence Drops
From the Bonference Board:Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions was less favorable in June. Those claiming business conditions are "good" decreased to 8.0 percent from 8.8 percent, while those saying conditions are "bad" increased to 45.6 percent from 44.5 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also less favorable. Those stating...
A Closer Look At Personal Consumption Expenditures
Notice the following on the above chart:1.) PCEs fell out of bed last year -- notice the high month over month and year over year drops.2.) This year PCEs have returned to more "normal" month over month increases. 3.) The year over year number appears to be bottoming.This is the same pattern retail sales have displayed. Consumers stopped spending...
Treasury Tuesdays
Click on all images for a larger imageThe Treasury market continues to rebound. Notice that prices have been rising since roughly mid-June. Also note that prices are above the 10 and 20 day EMA and are just below the 50. Also note the 10 day EMA is about to cross over the 20 day EMA -- another bullish signal. In addition,The MACD is rising as isThe...
Brown's Bankrupt Britain
Revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (what use are stats if they have to be forever revised?) show that the the UK economy shrank by 2.4% in Q1 2009. This is the fastest rate in more than 50 years, and far worse than expected.In related news Brown has published a "quasi manifesto" outlining his plans for his "relaunch". Unfortunately...
Monday, June 29, 2009
Today's Markets
Yes the markets are moving higher. However, notice the lack of volume over the last two days. That's does not bode well for a stronger move higher.The daily charts shows two interesting points.1.) Most of the price moves came at the beginning of the session.2.) There was a heavy volume surge in the last 10 minutes of trading that didn't move the market...
An Economic Chicken And Egg Story
I really wish we could all wake up tomorrow (or today which would be better) and see headlines like "the economy is returning to 4% growth and unemployment is at 5%". Unfortunately that is not going to happen. In economics certain things usually happen before other things. To that end, below is a discussion about when jobs will come back. Let's...
Are We There Yet? Not Quite.
This was written by Invictus as well.There's widespread consensus that things are "less bad" of late than they were in the fourth quarter of 2008 or the first quarter of 2009. It's hard to disagree with that. However, when is the recession going to end, and what is going to become of the so-called "green shoots" that have taken the stock market from...
Mr. Market Says He Wants Some Respect
I have invited Invictus to start posting here. He usually posts at Blah3 but I've asked him to start posting some economic and market observations here.A significant event – perhaps very significant – took place in the market last week, yet it has gone under most of the radar I look at. The S&P500 completed a fairly rare “Golden Cross.” What is...
Market Mondays
Welcome back. I hope everybody had a good weekend. Let's start by taking a look at the markets.The SPYs and IWMs have bounced off the 50 day EMA while the QQQQs have bounced from a slightly higher lever. In addition, all three averages have moved through downward sloping trend lines. This should be a good sign technically. However, I am skeptical...
Who's In Charge?
Those of you who were worried about who is exactly is in charge of the UK need worry no more, Lord Mandelson has revealed that he is in charge and the person where the "buck stops".In an interview with The Today programme he said:"The spending period currently operating in Government stretches beyond the next election and therefore it is reasonable to review public spending at that time."Adding that the Chancellor has already "made that judgment". By making that statement in public, he has tied both the Chancellor's and the Prime Minister's hands.Now...
Friday, June 26, 2009
Is This Another Sign of A Market Correction?
Yesterday the IEFs and TLTs made higher moves. Is this money that would be going into the market instead going into bonds because their yield is attractive? Or, are people taking profits off the table and moving into Treasuries awaiting the next move? Click on all images for a larger image -- and ignore the last bar....
CBO Sees Problems Brewing
From the CBO:Today CBO released the Long-Term Budget Outlook. Under current law, the federal budget is on an unsustainable path—meaning that federal debt will continue to grow much faster than the economy over the long run. Although great uncertainty surrounds long-term fiscal projections, rising costs for health care and the aging of the U.S. population...
Forex Fridays
Overall, the downward trend from the double top continues. Prices are moving lower and the MACD and RSI are confirming the trend. The 10 and 20 week EMA are also moving lower with the 10 week EMA going though the 50 week EMA and the 20 about to follow suit.The daily chart is a great example of bear market rallies -- it contains two. Notice how prices...
FSA Tries To Pull Its Head From The Sand
Our ever "vigilant, pro active and respected" Financial Services Authority (FSA) has attempted to pull its head out of the sand and has proposed that financial advisers should no longer receive commission from selling investments, pensions and insurance products.Doubtless this will come as welcome news to the millions of hapless endowment policy holders who were mis-sold these useless products in the 80's by commission hungry salesmen!The FSA said: "We propose to ban product providers from offering amounts of commission to secure sales from adviser...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Today's Markets
The big news today was from a technical perspective. Notice that prices moved above 10 day trendlines on all four averages. That's a very important move technically. However, look at the daily charts and you'll notice that prices are rebounding from a downward movement.The DIAs are rallying into the 200 day SMAThe SPYs are rallying from teh 200...
