As the year ends, all of us wanted to thank everybody for stopping by and reading us over the last year. Have a happy -- and safe -- New Year's Eve.We'll be back on Monday, bright and early, to start the new ye...
Thursday, December 31, 2009
SilverOz Economic Predictions for 2010
I decided to go out on a limb and place my economic predictions for the last year of the first decade of the 21st century for all to see and ridicule later in the year (and probably now too). I am not very optimistic about our prospects for a robust economic recovery next year, but at this time do not see a double-dip recession either. Since these are predictions, this post is graph free.1. The US economy stagnates after a robust Q1 (3%+ growth). I see full year GDP coming in around 1.5%.2. That low GDP also means a lack of job creation. ...
New Year's Eve Weekly Indicators
- by New Deal democratThe last week of 2009 was a very quiet one for monthly data. Case-Schiller house prices were flat. Improving Consumer confidence was confirmed by the Conference Board. Manufacturing in the Chicago region improved substantially. The American Trucking Association reported that theATA Truck Tonnage Index Jumped 2.7 Percent In NovemberThe latest gain boosted the SA index from 103.6 (2000=100) in October to 106.4, its highest level in a year.Turning to the weekly indicators I use to gauge how well the economic expansion is being...
Initial Jobless Claims: 432,000
- by New Deal democrat The BLS reported that for the week ending December 26, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased to 432,000, down 22,000 from last week's revised 454,000. The 4-week moving average is now 460,250, compared with 465,750 last week. The 4 week seasonally adjusted moving average is a little more than 31% lower than the...
Thursday Oil Market Round-Up
A.) Oil prices have rebounded since mid-December. They have risen through the EMAs to hit upside resistance at the 200 day EMA. Also note the 10, 20 and 50 day EMAs are moving higher with the 10 day EMA moving through the 20 and 50 day EMA.B.) The MACD has given a buy signal, butC.) The A/D line has not increased indicating that we have not seen...
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Today's Market
A.) Prices broke a 5-day uptrend today. After prices broke the trend they formed a good triangle, consolidating losses before breaking higher at the end of the d...
The Sky is Falling! -- Maybe Not.....
On Christmas Eve, the Treasury announced that they were changing the funding situaition for Fannie and Freddie. The blogs erupted in unison -- there was a conspiracy! We're all going to hell! The sky is falling.As usual, the blogs, well, overreacted:Let’s start with “uncapping” Treasury support under the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) authorized by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008. Under the new calculation the maximum amount either enterprise may draw is the greater of $200 billion, or $200 billion plus the...
*Blowout* Chicago PMI: 60.0
- by New Deal democratThe Institute for Supply Management in the Chicago region reported its Purchasing Manager's Index at 60.0 this morning (above 50 means expansion). This is, quite simply, a blowout to the upside.All categories of the Index improved: New Orders, Production, and Backlogs all increased, as most importantly for most of us, Employment....
GMAC To Get More Aid
WSJ, last night:GMAC Financial Services is close to getting approximately $3.5 billion in additional aid from the U.S. government, on top of $12.5 billion already received since December 2008, according to people familiar with the situation.The announcement, expected within days, will coincide with GMAC taking additional steps to absorb losses related to its mortgage operations, these people said. The cleanup is designed to return the Detroit-based finance company to profitability in the first quarter of 2010, according to one of these people.We're...
Wednesday Commodities Round-Up
A.) Copper is in a clear uptrend.B.) As prices have risen they have also consolidated at various times.C.) Prices have also broken through key areas of resistance.D.) Momentum is fair. It has risen for the last two peaks with the second MACD reading being above the first peak, but there isn't a strong trend in place.E.) Money continues to flow into...
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Today's Market
Over the last few days, I've been wondering whether or not the markets are lining up for a post new years rally (see posts here, here and here). To that end, I think investors feelings about risk are very important. The chart about is of the IWMS, or the Russell 2000. Notice that the index has recently broken through resistance (B), although on...
Case Shiller Flat; Consumer Confidence Up
From Reuter'sIn housing, the S&P composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was flat in October, falling short of expectations for a rise of 0.2 percent according to a Reuters survey. September's index was revised upward to a gain of 0.4 percent, from a previously reported 0.3 percent.Only seven of the 20 cities in the composite index...
Treasury Yields and Inflation
Consider the above charts together. Click if you need a larger image. The top is the year over year percentage change in inflation, while the lower is the yield on the 10-year Treasury.Starting in about 1965 inflation started to increase. This reached its zenith in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Over the same period we saw interest rates increase....
$1,000,000,000,000
Have you ever tried to visualize what one trillion dollars looks like? There are some attempts to do so on the internet, but I've found them unhelpful, as they don't really help to truly "visualize" -- visually represent -- what it looks like. So I've taken it upon myself to ascertain what $1,000,000,000,000 looks like in terms we can all get our heads around.Here is what I found:We're going to use $100 bills (for reasons that will be immediately obvious). We know that a U.S. banknote measures 2.61" x 6.14" x 0.0043".So...imagine a football...
Treasury Tuesdays
The overall trend in the last month has clearly been lower. However, note the following:A.) There have been numerous gaps down. That tells us that traders are dumping IEF shares. Also note the volume spike yesterday, telling us that traders dumped a lot.B.) The EMA picture has turned decidedly bearish: the shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs,...
Monday, December 28, 2009
Today's Market
Click for a larger image.This morning a ran two posts looking at the possibility of the market moving higher after the first of the year. Let me plan devils advocate with those posts with the above chart of the SPYs. Notice that the latest rally -- which took us through key resistance -- occurred on diminishing volume. This is not what we want....
2009 Year in Review: The Recovery Has Started
In the first post in this series, I looked at how we got here. As a quick recap, at the end of 2008 the economy was facing a deflationary threat. In response, the government put a stimulus program into place and the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to near zero. Today's question is how has this paid off?Let's state with manufacturing.At the...
Will Stocks Rally After the First of the Year? -- Part II
In addition to the SPY chart below, consider the following charts:Click for a larger image:A.) Treasury prices have been dropping all month, falling 4.5%. Also note prices are below the lows of early November.B.) The EMA picture is turning negative: all the short-term EMAs are moving lower and the shorter are below the longer. In addition, prices...
Market Mondays
Click for a larger imageA.) Is a consolidation area that has lasted over a month. Notice how weak the candles are in this area -- there are many with short bodies indicating narrow trading ranges. In addition, there are longer bodies indicating a large amount of volatility.B.) Prices, however, may be moving higher right now. Traders have consolidated...
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Christmas Eve Weekly Indicators
- by New Deal democratMonthly data was mixed this week. Existing home sales came in higher than expected; new home sales tanked (which may or may not be of a piece with the surprise decline last month in housing permits and starts, which rebounded this month). 3Q GDP was revised down to a merely good 2.2%. The Chicago Fed's index in November improved. Perhaps most importantly, personal income and spending both increased in November, suggesting 4Q personal consumption expenditures will be up significantly compared with earlier this year.Turning...
Initial Jobless Claims: 452,000; Durable Goods up 0.2%
- by New Deal democratThe BLS reported that for the week ending December 19, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell to 452,000, down from last week's 480,000.The 4-week moving average is now 465,250, compared with 468,000 last week. The 4 week seasonally adjusted moving average is now about 31% lower than the peak of 658,750 on April 3 of this year. (The last two "jobless recoveries" coincided with new claims declining no more than 20% from peak).Unadjusted, there were 561,902 new claims, an increase of 6,942 from the week before, showing...
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Bonddad Signing Off Until Next Week
My father gets in town later today, so the family festivities will be cranking up. I'll be back on Monday.To all the readers of this blog, have a very Merry Christmas. And don't think about stock charts or economic numbers during the process, ...
GDP Increases 2.2% in Final Revision
From the BEA:Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the...
Wednesday Commodities Round-Up
For the DBBs, note the overall trend is up. There has been consolidation along the way in the form of consolidation rectangles and flags, but overall we're still moving higher. Also note the overall EMA picture -- the shorter EMAs are above the longer EMAs, all the EMAs are moving higher and prices are using the EMAs are technical support.A.) Momentum...
