Weekend Weimar and Beagle

Usually there is a picture here of Mr. and Mr$. Bonddad's dogs. But Bonddad is writing this from his Iphone because BD is current at his new house getting it ready for the "big move". So -- there aren't any pictures, just a statement that it's the weekend and it's time to think about anything aside from the markets.See you on Mon...

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Quarterly Banking Profile Roundup

The FDIC has released its Quarterly Banking Profile. Here are the salient points.Deteriorating asset quality concentrated in real estate loan portfolios continued to take a toll on the earnings performance of many insured institutions in first quarter 2008. Higher loss provisions were the primary reason that industry earnings for the quarter totaled...

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Forex Fridays

Let's take a look at the charts of the three biggies -- the dollar, the euro and the yen.On the weekly dollar chart, notice that prices have been falling through support areas for the better part of two years. Also note the 20 and 50 week SMA are both heading lower, although the 10 day SMA is leveling out. Also note prices and the 10 day SMA are...

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Valuing Northern Rock

I see that the Treasury is having trouble (which it of course denies) in finding an independent valuer to assess compensation payments due to Northern Rock shareholders.Unsurprisingly no one wants to pick up the poisoned chalice, as whoever does will be liable to be sued by disgruntled shareholders who still labour under the illusion that Northern Wreck has value.Wouldn't the Treasury save itself a lot of heartache by simply allowing the shares to trade openly on the market, as I recommended in February, thus providing a real time and open valuation...

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Today's Markets

Two big pieces of good news today. Oil dropped more than $4 (when was the last time I wrote that. In addition, the economy grew at a .9% clip in the first quarter, which was slightly higher than originally reported. But consumers only increased their spending at a 1% rate which is not that encouraging. The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile,...

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It's the Debt, Stupid

One of the first trends I noticed with the latest US expansion is the record amount of debt that was involved. Simply put -- this was a borrow and spend expansion like nobody's business. I'm not the only one who has noticed:Is Kevin Phillips right that something funny is going on in the economy? Yes, although just how funny is less clear.The numbers...

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Sorting Out All the Spin in Durable Goods

There are times when I could literally just scream at the incredible amount of political bullshit that goes on with economic numbers. It just boggles the mind and frustrates the analysis. So, instead of relying on the news media to inform us, we are now faced with the task of sorting through the noise. What fun indeed.According to the Census Bureau:New...

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Oil Market Roundup

On the P&F chart, notice one clear point: prices have continually made new highs by breaking through key areas of resistance. Also note this have been going on for some time.On the weekly chart, notice the following:-- Prices have continually made new highs-- Prices have always consolidated gains-- Prices are above all the SMAs-- All the SMAs...

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King Canute

Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling tried to play King Canute by holding talks in Aberdeen with members of Oil & Gas UK, a trade body for companies operating in the North Sea.The objective was to call for a cut in oil prices by pushing up production.Brown called on OPEC to increase production to help lower skyrocketing fuel prices. Brown is also of the view that the best long-term solution is to become a low-carbon economy."The cause of rising prices is clear: growing demand and too little supply to meet it both now and — perhaps of even greater...

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Today's Markets

I'm on a PF kick today -- and will be using them more often going forward. I like the way they get rid of all the noise and just look at price action. So -- let's see what the PF charts say about all three averages.On the SPYs notice there are two possible interpretations. First, we have a series of lower highs -- which could indicate we're heading...

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Wednesday's Commodities Roundup

I'm going to do something different today. I'm going to use Point and Figure charts (PF) charts for the commodities markets. There are a few reasons for this. First, they are a great way to filter out the noise in the markets and see exactly what prices are doing. Secondly, there are some really interesting divergences in the commodities market...

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Anatomy of Mortgage Fraud

From the WSJ:Already burned by bad mortgages on their books, lenders now are feeling rising heat from loans they sold to investors.Unhappy buyers of subprime mortgages, home-equity loans and other real-estate loans are trying to force banks and mortgage companies to repurchase a growing pile of troubled loans. The pressure is the result of provisions in many loan sales that require lenders to take back loans that default unusually fast or contained mistakes or fraud.These are standard securitization provisions. What they essentially say is "if...

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Treasury Market Roundup

On the weekly 30-year yield chart, notice that yields are in a broadening pattern, moving between 4.20% and 4.60%. Also notice the yields have broken through resistance that started with the flight to quality at the end of last summer. The question now is will yields go higher or stay in this area.Notice the exact same situation with the 10-year...

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Record Number of Disputes

The Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS) has published its annual review for 2007/08, which shows that there has been a record number of enquiries and complaints about the quality of the financial services industry in Britain.In the year ended 2008, the FOS handled a record 794,648 consumer enquiries and 123,089 new complaints (a 30% annual increase).The number of mortgage and banking disputes tripled and insurance disputes doubled, whilst complaints about mortgage endowments fell by 70%. The FOS settled 99,699 disputes. Sir Christopher Kelly, chairman...

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Today's Markets

At least oil finally dropped in price as did rice. But, so did home prices and consumer sentiment. And thrifts set aside $7.6 billion in loan loss reserves in the first quarter. I'm going to look at the charts a bit backwards today. First, remember the QQQQs have been the market leader for the this rally. That's why today's action is so important....

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