A Closer Look At the QQQQs

Tech has been "the" market of late, so it seems appropriate to look at the daily and monthly charts to get an idea for what is in store for the market.The daily chart is very bullish.1.) There is s strong uptrend in place that started about 2 1/2 months ago.2.) All the moving averages are moving higher.3.) The shorter moving averages are above the...

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A Closer Look At the QQQQs

Tech has been "the" market of late, so it seems appropriate to look at the daily and monthly charts to get an idea for what is in store for the market.The daily chart is very bullish.1.) There is s strong uptrend in place that started about 2 1/2 months ago.2.) All the moving averages are moving higher.3.) The shorter moving averages are above the...

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I'm Not the Only One Calling Bulls^#$ on the GDP Inflation Number

It's good to know I'm not alone in my questioning the GDP deflator number.From the Big Picture:Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product was an astounding low 0.8% (Table 4). In other words, this report benefited as much from higher inflation as it did from true growth.I obviously take issue with that (as Crude Oil crosses $94 for the first time).To highlight the impact that this 0.8% price gain had on the reported REAL GDP: that 0.8% gain matches a level last seen in 1998; prior to that, the previous deflator gain of .8% was n 1963.Peter Boockvaar...

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I'm Not the Only One Calling Bulls^#$ on the GDP Inflation Number

It's good to know I'm not alone in my questioning the GDP deflator number.From the Big Picture:Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product was an astounding low 0.8% (Table 4). In other words, this report benefited as much from higher inflation as it did from true growth.I obviously take issue with that (as Crude Oil crosses $94 for the first time).To highlight the impact that this 0.8% price gain had on the reported REAL GDP: that 0.8% gain matches a level last seen in 1998; prior to that, the previous deflator gain of .8% was n 1963.Peter Boockvaar...

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Fed Cuts And More on Inflation

I'm in the Charlotte, NC airport between flights. Thankfully I have a bit of time to stretch my legs after the two hour ride in the airplane cattle car.Anyway, the Fed cut ates. Here is a link to the statement.The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.Economic growth...

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Fed Cuts And More on Inflation

I'm in the Charlotte, NC airport between flights. Thankfully I have a bit of time to stretch my legs after the two hour ride in the airplane cattle car.Anyway, the Fed cut ates. Here is a link to the statement.The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.Economic growth...

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Quick Notes on GDP

I have about 10 minutes.The overall GDP report is hereI have one big problem with this report. The GDP price deflator increased .8%? That is really low and just doesn't add up. The second lowest deflator over the last few years is 1.7 in the fourth quarter of 2006. Aside from that number and this month's number, most deflators are over 2% (see table IV in the link above). Playing the Sesame Street game "One of these things is not like the other one", that number should raise a ton of eyebrows. Considering oil is near a record level, agricultural...

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Quick Notes on GDP

I have about 10 minutes.The overall GDP report is hereI have one big problem with this report. The GDP price deflator increased .8%? That is really low and just doesn't add up. The second lowest deflator over the last few years is 1.7 in the fourth quarter of 2006. Aside from that number and this month's number, most deflators are over 2% (see table IV in the link above). Playing the Sesame Street game "One of these things is not like the other one", that number should raise a ton of eyebrows. Considering oil is near a record level, agricultural...

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Traveling Day

I'm traveling today. I'll try and post on the market had Fed action,, but I can't guarantee anythi...

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Traveling Day

I'm traveling today. I'll try and post on the market had Fed action,, but I can't guarantee anythi...

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A Look At the Oil Market

This is a great example of a bull market chart. Notice the following.1.) A series of higher highs and higher lows.2.) The shorter simple moving averages (SMAs) are higher than the longer SMAs.3.) All the SMAs are moving higher. That means the short (2 month), medium (2 1/2 month) and long term (40 week) trend is positive.4.) Notice how prices have...

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A Look At the Oil Market

This is a great example of a bull market chart. Notice the following.1.) A series of higher highs and higher lows.2.) The shorter simple moving averages (SMAs) are higher than the longer SMAs.3.) All the SMAs are moving higher. That means the short (2 month), medium (2 1/2 month) and long term (40 week) trend is positive.4.) Notice how prices have...

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Darling Does U Turn

Alistair Darling, Chancellor of The Exchequer, has done a U turn over his plans for single rate 18% capital gains tax.Having unleashed a storm of protest from business groups (such as the CBI) who complained that the removal of tapering relief would damage entrepreneurship, Darling has agreed to give £100K in tax relief for owners of small businesses who sell up and retire. Therefore where will Darling now find the extra money needed to meet his U turn on CGT?What the Chancellor gives with the one hand, he takes with the oth...

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Housing Is Nowhere Near the Bottom

From Bloomberg:PMI Group Inc., the second-largest U.S. mortgage insurer, posted its first quarterly loss since its 1995 public offering as borrowers were unable to keep up with higher payments after their ``teaser'' rates expired. The company fell 10 percent in New York trading and a rating firm downgraded its debt......U.S. home foreclosures doubled in September from a year earlier as subprime homeowners struggled with payments, according to RealtyTrac Inc. MGIC Investment Corp, the largest mortgage insurer, also reported its first quarterly loss...

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Housing Is Nowhere Near the Bottom

From Bloomberg:PMI Group Inc., the second-largest U.S. mortgage insurer, posted its first quarterly loss since its 1995 public offering as borrowers were unable to keep up with higher payments after their ``teaser'' rates expired. The company fell 10 percent in New York trading and a rating firm downgraded its debt......U.S. home foreclosures doubled in September from a year earlier as subprime homeowners struggled with payments, according to RealtyTrac Inc. MGIC Investment Corp, the largest mortgage insurer, also reported its first quarterly loss...

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Today's Markets

The SPYS opened lower and dropped. They rallied back to their opening, but then fell again near the close. Notice at the end the long candles and heavy volume. This indicates that traders were shedding positions before the close, not wanting to hold anything overnight. This indicates nervousness. Although the Fed won't release their interest rate...

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Today's Markets

The SPYS opened lower and dropped. They rallied back to their opening, but then fell again near the close. Notice at the end the long candles and heavy volume. This indicates that traders were shedding positions before the close, not wanting to hold anything overnight. This indicates nervousness. Although the Fed won't release their interest rate...

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What Inflation?

From the AP:P&G said gross margins are expected to be temporarily lower this quarter due to higher commodity and energy costs and investments needed behind its North America laundry initiative, in which it is offering concentrated formulas of Tide and other liquid detergents in smaller containers.P&G said it expects gross margins to recover in the second half of its fiscal year due to pricing and increased cost savings from restructuring projects.P&G officials said they plan to pass along some of the rising costs for oil and raw materials...

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What Inflation?

From the AP:P&G said gross margins are expected to be temporarily lower this quarter due to higher commodity and energy costs and investments needed behind its North America laundry initiative, in which it is offering concentrated formulas of Tide and other liquid detergents in smaller containers.P&G said it expects gross margins to recover in the second half of its fiscal year due to pricing and increased cost savings from restructuring projects.P&G officials said they plan to pass along some of the rising costs for oil and raw materials...

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Business Week Adds to the Comic Relief

From Business Week:Yet some investors say such terrifying conditions are a great time to start buying stock in the financial sector.Their argument: Financial stocks in the S&P 500 have tumbled almost 10% in the last six months, while the broader index is up 2.75%. Financial giants like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Wachovia (WB), Merrill Lynch (MER), and big insurer AIG (AIG) are all trading at or just above one- and, in some cases, two-year lows. ....For long-term investors, the beat-up financial sector may be the best place to look...

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Business Week Adds to the Comic Relief

From Business Week:Yet some investors say such terrifying conditions are a great time to start buying stock in the financial sector.Their argument: Financial stocks in the S&P 500 have tumbled almost 10% in the last six months, while the broader index is up 2.75%. Financial giants like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Wachovia (WB), Merrill Lynch (MER), and big insurer AIG (AIG) are all trading at or just above one- and, in some cases, two-year lows. ....For long-term investors, the beat-up financial sector may be the best place to look...

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There's No Housing Bubble!

Hat Tip to the Kirk ReportFrom October 2005:Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve......"House prices are unlikely to continue rising at current rates," said Bernanke, who served on the Fed board from 2002 until June. However, he added, "a moderate cooling in the housing market, should one occur, would not be inconsistent with the economy continuing to grow...

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There's No Housing Bubble!

Hat Tip to the Kirk ReportFrom October 2005:Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve......"House prices are unlikely to continue rising at current rates," said Bernanke, who served on the Fed board from 2002 until June. However, he added, "a moderate cooling in the housing market, should one occur, would not be inconsistent with the economy continuing to grow...

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Country Wide Offers Comic Relief

From the WSJ:Countrywide Financial Corp. cheered investors last week by pledging a quick return to profitability, boosting the stock price that day 32%.Consider the following chart from the IMF:Also add this from IBD:ABX indexes, barometers of demand for mortgage-backed securities, have plunged again in recent weeks. They range from the highest-rated...

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Country Wide Offers Comic Relief

From the WSJ:Countrywide Financial Corp. cheered investors last week by pledging a quick return to profitability, boosting the stock price that day 32%.Consider the following chart from the IMF:Also add this from IBD:ABX indexes, barometers of demand for mortgage-backed securities, have plunged again in recent weeks. They range from the highest-rated...

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Taxpayers Can Sue HMRC

The court of appeal ruling in favour of Neil Martin a builder who lost £500K, as a result of errors made by HMRC when it processed his company's Construction Industry Scheme (CIS) application in 1999, leaves HMRC open to being sued by taxpayers for errors.The ruling means that HMRC has a duty of care to taxpayers, and taxpayers may now sue HMRC for damages in certain circumstances.This is particularly relevant in cases where the HMRC help taxpayers with their returns.The result will of course mean that HMRC will no longer offer taxpayers help in...

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A Closer Look at the Basic Materials Sector

Unlike the stock market rally of the 1990s, the latest rally is characterized by strong movements in basic materials. The reason is the growth of China and India. As these two countries have come on line -- and as they have developed their respective industrial bases -- they have demanded more and more raw materials. Hence, the run-up in the basic...

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A Closer Look at the Basic Materials Sector

Unlike the stock market rally of the 1990s, the latest rally is characterized by strong movements in basic materials. The reason is the growth of China and India. As these two countries have come on line -- and as they have developed their respective industrial bases -- they have demanded more and more raw materials. Hence, the run-up in the basic...

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Today's Markets

Not much really happened today in the markets. Basically we're waiting for the Fed to do something on Wednesday (or not -- wouldn't that be a surprise). Anyway, both markets opened higher and then found a tight range for the d...

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Today's Markets

Not much really happened today in the markets. Basically we're waiting for the Fed to do something on Wednesday (or not -- wouldn't that be a surprise). Anyway, both markets opened higher and then found a tight range for the d...

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Why Further Rate Cuts Will Only Hurt In the Long Term

From the WSJ:Crude-oil futures rose past $93 a barrel for the first time on Monday, getting a lift as bad weather forced a halt to production in Mexico. Oil futures were also boosted by a weak dollar, which touched the lowest level against the euro in eight years.Crude futures for December delivery rose as high as $93.20 a barrel in electronic trading....

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Why Further Rate Cuts Will Only Hurt In the Long Term

From the WSJ:Crude-oil futures rose past $93 a barrel for the first time on Monday, getting a lift as bad weather forced a halt to production in Mexico. Oil futures were also boosted by a weak dollar, which touched the lowest level against the euro in eight years.Crude futures for December delivery rose as high as $93.20 a barrel in electronic trading....

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Treasury Secretary Paulson Provides Comic Relief

From CNBC:Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Monday repeated his mantra that a strong dollar is in the best interests of the US, even as the currency was hitting fresh lows against the euro."I believe that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest and also that currency values should be set in a competitive marketplace based upon underlying economic...

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Treasury Secretary Paulson Provides Comic Relief

From CNBC:Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Monday repeated his mantra that a strong dollar is in the best interests of the US, even as the currency was hitting fresh lows against the euro."I believe that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest and also that currency values should be set in a competitive marketplace based upon underlying economic...

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More On Third Quarter Earnings

From IBD:What does this tell us?1.) The gains in consumer staples, health care and possibly telecom indicate more recession resistant economic areas are doing well.2.) The cheap dollar is leading to rising exports which is helping industrials.3.) Consumer discretionary is hurting. That indicates the US consumer may not be that healthy.4.) Financials...

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More On Third Quarter Earnings

From IBD:What does this tell us?1.) The gains in consumer staples, health care and possibly telecom indicate more recession resistant economic areas are doing well.2.) The cheap dollar is leading to rising exports which is helping industrials.3.) Consumer discretionary is hurting. That indicates the US consumer may not be that healthy.4.) Financials...

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