logo

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Dollar Update

Here's a chart from Stockcharts for the US Dollar Index:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

The dollar consolidated from the beginning of January to mid-February. Then it started losing value in a clearly defined downtrend.

Notice the 20 day SMA is crossing over the 50-day SMA. The last time this happened in early November the dollar dropped 3,5%

Oil Market Update

Oil is one of the primary commodities that is driving -- or not driving -- inflation. Therefore, it's important to keep on top of where oil is and where it might be heading.

Here's a chart from Stockcharts:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Since the price low in mid-January, oil has been steadily moving up. It consolidated gains twice -- once in late January and once in mid-February. While it's still in an uptrend, today's drop to near the trend line (which is masking the 20-day simple moving average) indicates possible weakness. This means the next few trading days are pretty important to this particular uptrend -- at least from a technical view.

Remember oil's fundamental underpinnings have tons of risk and volatility. Any change their will greatly impact the chart.

Market Recap

The markets closed up today. The SPYs were up 1.04%, the QQQQs were up .3% and the IWNs were up .94%. Starting at about 11AM, all three markets traded in a sideways pattern, indicating supply and demand were in equilibrium. This looks like mostly a technical bounce, nothing more. This makes more sense especially considering

1.) New home starts dropped 16%,

2.) The PMI was recessionary for a second month in a row and

3.) GDP was revised down to 2.2%.


The bottom line is the economy appears to be slowing and the housing market hasn't hit bottom in any meaningful way. We still have to wade through some basic problems.

Market Update

The markets have rebounded from yesterday's loss. As of this writing, the QQQQs are up .8%, the IWNs are up 1.1% and the SPYs are up 1.3%. All of the markets are establishing some strong intra-day support levels.

We may be seeing two technical patterns right now.

1.) An inside day -- think of this like a triangle pattern.

2.) A dead-cat bounce. Prices drop hard, then rebound slightly. It's akin to dropping a, well, dead cat from a high height (sorry for the visual).

As with all technical analysis -- it's about probabilities not certainties.

New Home Sales Plunge

From Bloomberg:

New-home sales in the U.S. fell last month by the most in 13 years, pointing to more weakness in the real-estate market that limited economic growth last year.

The 16.6 percent decrease to an annual rate of 937,000 in January, less than any economist had forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, Commerce Department figures showed today. The pace of sales was the slowest since February 2003. A measure of housing inventory rose to the highest in three months.

The figures show home construction will remain a drag on the economy even with lower borrowing costs and more incentives from builders. More cuts in home prices may be needed to stir buyer interest as builders keep reporting increased rates of canceled orders.


OK -- the housing market has not bottomed in any significant way.

Here are some other thoughts.

1.) Mortgage rates are low right now. In addition, the 10-year Treasury has rallied, further lowering rates. Interest rates aren't the issue.

2.) Are sub-prime mortgage problems and increasing credit standards starting to filter through the market? We saw the first wave of sub-prime mortgage problems later last year, and a second wave recently. If these two events are related (but remember we have a correlated not causation related events) we could have further drops in the next few months.

3.) Are household debt levels starting to hamper further debt acquisition? Household debt is now over 90% of GDP and 120% of overall national disposable income. Debt payments as a percentage of disposable income are are record highs. Are these factors starting to restrain the housing market?

Chicago PMI Drops Slightly

Here is a link to the full report.

The overall index dropped from 48.8 to 47.9.

Production decreased slightly, but new orders increased slightly.

Inventories increased in a big way from 38.5 to 56.5 -- the largest gain in 30 years.

Here's a big phrase from the report: overall demand down 28% - 30% and sales incentives are high. When you have to pay people to buy your products you have problems.

While this report isn't completely recessionary, it is leaning in that direction. In addition, we have two downward trends in the overall business barometer number. The first started at the beginning of 2005, and the second started in mid-2006. Things still appear to be moving down, although I wouldn't call this a recessionary stage yet. But we're pretty close.

GDP Increases 2.2%

From the BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.


Let's look a little deeper into the numbers:

Personal Consumption Expenditures increased 4.4% -- a strong number. However, domestic investment decreased 11%. Residential investment decreased 19% -- by far the biggest reason for the overall drop. Nonresidential investment decreased .4%. While nonresidential fixed investment (buildings etc...) increased 2.8%, equipment and software investment decreased 1.8%.

Personal consumption expenditures added 3.05% to the 2.2% number. Purchases for non-durable goods added 1.38% to the 2.2% number with food purchases responsible for .69. Services added 1.2% to the 2.2% growth. Durable goods purchases added .47. This is the third quarter in a row when durable goods purchases have been weak.

Gross private domestic investment subtracted 1.92% from growth. That means if housing had been neutral (0% growth), overall growth would have been 4.1% - 4.2%. That should give you some idea of how important the housing slump is to the current economy.

Short version -- this number is weak but not cataclysmic. In addition, a downward revision has been expected.

Asian Market Recap

From the WSJ:

nvestors in Shanghai-listed stocks Wednesday bucked the very trend they'd begun a day earlier, bidding shares well into positive territory, even as other Asian benchmark indexes plunged for a second straight session.

Shanghai's Composite Index gained 3.94% to close at 2881.07, reversing a negative performance in the early part of the morning session. The Shanghai index, which tracks shares listed on the bigger of China's two stock markets, fell 8.8% Tuesday, triggering a global selloff that led to the biggest one-day losses in the U.S. since the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

The decline in Shanghai Tuesday followed concerns that the government may introduce additional macro-economic tightening measures to cool speculative activity. On Monday, the Shanghai benchmark ended at an all-time high.

In Tokyo, stocks plunged in the wake of the overnight dive on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrials fell more than 400 points. (See related article.)

The Nikkei 225 stock index fell 515.80 points, or 2.85%, to finish at 17604.12 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Around Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended down 2.46% at 19651.51. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed 2.69% lower at 5832.50. Shares of BHP Billiton fell 5.1%.

South Korea's Kospi Index ended down 2.56% to 1417.34. Singapore's Straits Times Index finished down 3.72% to 3111.94 and New Zealand's NZSX-50 ended 1.5% lower to 4037.12. Markets in Taiwan were closed for a public holiday.


Australia * -2.70%
Hong Kong * -2.46%
India * -4.01%
Indonesia * -1.31%
Japan * -2.85%
Malaysia * -3.91%
Pakistan * -1.74%
Philippines * -7.92%
Singapore * -3.72%
S.Korea * -2.56%
Sri Lanka * -0.45%
Taiwan * 0.02%
Thailand * -1.0

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Nikkei Opens 700 Points Lower

From the WSJ:

Japan's Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 700 points at Wednesday's open in Tokyo, falling below 18000 for the first time in nearly a week, as investors sold stocks across the board in the wake of steep losses on Wall Street.


Not good.

What Will Happen Tomorrow

Let's look ahead.

1.) Today has a huge down day on record volume. None of the daily charts found a meaningful technical bottom.

2.) The markets have rallied for the better part of 6 months without a major correction.

So before we get to tomorrow's economic news we already have a strong bearish bias.

Tomorrow we have GDP, new home sales and the Chicago PMI.

There's been a lot of talk about a large downward revision to this number -- a revision in the range of about 1% in GDP growth. If this happens the US economy will have three straight quarters of sub-par growth.

The PMI has been hovering around 50 for the last few months. While there was a big upward move in the NY Fed index this month, the Philly index was mediocre.

New homes sales are also important, especially with the problems in the sub-prime mortgage market right now.

Each of these numbers is important, although I think the GDP revision -- if it's large -- will be the big number of the day.

What the Hell Happened Today

OK. The markets are closed. Let's take a breath and look at what happened.

A big drop in China started it off:

The Shanghai Composite Index, which surged an astonishing 127% in 2006 and is up 13% over the last six sessions, plunged 8.8% -- the biggest one-day decline in 10 years. Worries the Chinese government may step up its efforts to curb speculative buying interest have been attributed to the consolidation that has aggravated ongoing concerns about overbought conditions and talks of a correction.


Here's more from Bloomberg:

China's stocks tumbled the most in 10 years on concern that a government crackdown on investments with borrowed money will end a rally that drove benchmarks to records.

...

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index slid 250.18, or 9.2 percent, to 2457.49. The measure, which jumped 13 percent in the past six sessions, closed at a record yesterday.

Today's rout wiped out $107.8 billion from a stock market that doubled in the past year as 249 of the key index's 300 shares plunged by the 10 percent limit. The 300 index is valued at 38 times earnings, compared with 16 times for the Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index.

The State Council, China's highest ruling body, has approved a special task force to clamp down on illegal share offerings and other banned activities in the market, the government said. The group will provide advice on regulations and policy explanations of the securities market, according to a statement published Feb. 25 on the central government's Web site.


I can't speak to the practices these proposed regulations are supposed to curb. However, I would assume they are a problem for the Chinese market.

Other developing countries sold-off in sympathy with China. The ETF for Malaysia was down 9%, Brazil was down 8.59%, Mexico was down 8%, and Singapore was down 7.8%.

So at the open, there was a rolling worldwide sell-off going on starting in Asia.

In the US, the big drop in durable goods that came out before the open added fuel to the bears fire.

Orders for durable goods decreased by 7.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted $203.90 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Durables rose 2.8% in December, revised from a previously estimated 2.9% increase.

A key barometer of business-equipment spending -- orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- fell by 6.0%, after increasing 3.6% in December. Shipments for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft decreased by 2.7%, after dropping by 0.8% in December; the shipments are used in calculating gross domestic product.

The 7.8% decrease in overall durable goods orders surprised Wall Street. The median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had durables just 3.2% lower in the first month of 2007.

The manufacturing sector weakened in 2006. The economy had cooled and receding demand caused inventories at companies to pile up. Firms had to adjust inventory levels and depleting supplies meant fewer orders and cuts in production of goods. The auto business was hit particularly hard. The Federal Reserve recently reported industrial production made a surprising drop in January, falling by 0.5%.


So, before the US markets opened, the Asian markets tanked and there was bad economic news.

Here is daily chart of the SPY.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Notice this chart closed near the low point of the day and the last bar had big volume. There was one bounce about 3 PM. This chart says essentially one thing: the bears were in complete control of the day.

Here's a daily chart of the SPY's

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

In one day the average broke through the uptrend and went through the 20 SMA and 50 SMA on enormous volume.

Here's a 5-minute chart of the QQQQs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Like the SPYs, the QQQQs saw one bounce. They closed on the low point, although volume was weak on the last sell-off.

Here's the daily chart for the QQQQs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

There was less technical damage on this chart -- although the damage is still pretty big. The QQQQs have been trading in a range since the end of November. Today we started near the top of the range and closed near the bottom on enormous volume.

Here's the daily chart of the IWNs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Like the other two averages we've looked at, there was one bounce. The index closed at the low point of the day, although the volume was weak.

Here's the daily chart of the IWN.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

This index was rallying well until today. However, we broke through the uptrend, 20 and 50 SMA on enormous volume.

So, here's the summation.

All of the indexes dropped hard on big volume. They have all broken uptrends and moved through their respective 20 and 50 day SMAs.

All of the various sectors were down big as well. This sell-off spared no one. Basic materials (XLB)- down 3.17%, Financials (XLF) down 4.67, Energy (XLE) down 1.95%, Consumer Staples (XLP) down 3.06%, Health Care (XLV) down 3.04%, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) down 3.39% and Utilities (XLU) down 1.32%.

These are the kind of days that turn trends around. The bottom line is the volume indicates everybody was looking for the door today. The breaking of trend lines indicates a reversal occurred, further confirmed by the huge volume totals. The SPYs are clearly moving lower. The QQQQs need to move through 43.5 or so and the IWNs need to move through 78.60 for there to be a real break. But given today's action, we could have further drops tomorrow.

Market Update After Close

It's a bloodbath in the market right now. After the close I'll have a market update.

Existing Homes Sales Increase 3%.

From Bloomberg:

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose more than forecast in January to a seven-month high as lower prices and warm weather brought out more buyers.

Purchases increased 3 percent last month to an annual rate of 6.46 million, up from a 6.27 million December rate that was higher than previously reported, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Sales fell 4.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

The report suggests that housing, recovering from its worst slump in 15 years, may be less of a burden on growth this year, economists said. Cheaper homes and low borrowing costs are spurring sales, while a plunge in January housing starts reported this month shows builders are trying to reduce a glut of unsold properties.


First -- color me impressed (and a bit surprised).

I think a fair amount of this has to do with interest rates.

Here's a chart of the 10-year Treasury, expressed by the interest rate.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

A while back I observed the 4.85% was near a restrictive interest rate on housing. Notice that rates have been dropping since the beginning of the year, and now stand at 4.55%. That is good for housing.

Durables Goods Orders Drop

From Bloomberg:

Durable-goods orders fell 7.8 percent in January, reflecting the biggest slide in business equipment demand in three years, the Commerce Department said in Washington. At the same time, the Conference Board's consumer-optimism index unexpectedly increased to the highest level in more than five years, and the National Association of Realtors said existing- home sales rose more than forecast.

Durable-goods orders excluding transportation equipment dropped 3.1 percent, the most since July 2005. Excluding military equipment, orders fell a record 7.8 percent last month, while inventories of all durables rose 0.3 percent.

Reluctance to Invest

The figures suggest reluctance among companies to invest carried into 2007 after spending on equipment such as computers, machines and communications gear fell by the most in four years in the fourth quarter. Bloated stockpiles at auto dealers and construction-equipment makers may restrain production early this year, Bernanke told Congress this month.


These numbers are great cause for concern. Industrial production decreased .5% last month. Now we have a drop in durable goods orders, further indicating a manufacturing slowdown. The ISM number -- which comes out later this week -- has hovered around 50, which indicates contraction. The Fed surveys have been mixed this month.

China's Markets Drop Almost 9%

From the WSJ:

Shanghai's benchmark stock index plunged nearly 9% on Tuesday, its biggest drop in more than 10 years, as investors unloaded shares to lock in profits after recent gains. Asian-Pacific markets ended mostly lower.

The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.8% to close at 2771.79, its biggest single-day decline since it fell 9.4% on Feb. 18, 1997, just after the death of Communist Party elder Deng Xiaoping. The Shanghai index had gained 1.4% on Monday to 3040.60, extending a spate of record high closes.

Shares in airlines, steelmakers and financial issues led declines, and Chinese traders said profit-taking was sparked by concerns additional macro-tightening policies could be introduced following the annual session of the China's National People's Congress that gets underway March 5.

BA Reservations II

It seems that I was not alone in experiencing problems accessing the BA Reservations call centre yesterday.

I tipped off the Times yesterday about my troubles, and they reported today that others had the same issues:

"More fun and games for British Airways customers, who discovered yesterday morning that the main number to make reservations, as specified on the website, didn't work. Nor did another number supplied by BA's Executive Club. The airline, which is by now convinced that I am deliberately persecuting it, admits to 'some call-routing issues' after weekend maintenance."

Despite the phone porblems not being a good omen, I will be flying to Beijing next week on British Scareways on business; let us trust they manage that aspect of their business a little better than they do their phone lines.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Foreclosures Increasing

From Marketwatch:

And RealtyTrac reported last week that the number of homes entering the foreclosure process increased by 19% in January, compared with December's numbers. Compared with January 2006, the number of homes in the process is up 25%. In 2006, a total of 1.2 million homes entered the foreclosure process, 42% more than 2005.

On Technical Analysis

A poster has asked the very legitimate question of why do I use technical analysis.

I struggled for a long time with this question myself. However, it wasn't until I read some of the older classic trader's books that I really started to understand how it works. The works of Gann, Schabacker and Gartley-- especially Gartley-- were incredibly enlightening. First, none of these traders used TA exclusively; they used it as part of an overall strategy. For example, in one book written in the 1930s, Gann spends a great deal of time talking about what industries will start to boom in the 1940s. He would combine these observations with TA to determine when to buy. All of these traders clearly stated many times that TA was not the hold grail and that the markets would do everything they could to make a fool of you. In other words, always be prepared to be wrong.

What I found confusing was the inclusion of a large number of indicators -- RSI, Stochastics, MACD etc.... These more modern ideas were really more statistical noise to me then helpful indicators. That's one of the reasons I almost never use them. I like to know where prices are now, where they have been. how many people are buying and selling (volume) and what the general trends are (simple moving averages). These basic data points are often all any trader really needs to know.

That being said, TA is not a holy grail of analysis. It can increase the probability of success. It is not a guarantor of success. In fact, no form of analysis is perfect. I've seen companies that were fundamentally undervalued languish at low prices for years despite the fact they were undervalued.

So here's the point.

1.) TA can help you figure out where prices have a higher probabilty of going.

2.) TA can tell you when it's a better time to buy.

3.) The markets can hand you your ass at a moments notice.

Will Commodities Rally Soon?

The charts from the metals got me thinking about the overall commodities situation. Here is the daily chart from Stockcharts:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Notice the chart has broken through the downtrend started in early December. In addition, we have a nice strong uptrend that has broken through the moving averages. Finally, the 20 Day SMA has crossed the 50 day SMA -- another bullish sign.

Here's the weekly chart:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

On the weekly chart we've also broken through the downward sloping trend line, crossed a moving average and are in a strong uptrend. While we are far off our highs of last year, the trend appears to be heading up.

Oil Moving Up

From Reuters:

Some analysts see a growing upward momentum for oil and note the latest data from the New York Mercantile Exchange points to an increase in investment by large funds.

"It is the first time this year that the large speculative funds are showing a net long position in crude oil," said Olivier Jakob, an analyst at Swiss-based Petromatrix.

Oil prices have swung between a high of $78.40 last July, when fighting flared in Lebanon, and a 20-month low of $49.90 in January when an expected influx of fund money failed to materialise, disappointing oil investors.

A steady recovery in prices since late January has been supported by gradually tightening supplies -- OPEC has twice cut output since November -- and by concerns over a possible disruption of Iran's oil supplies.


Strong net-long positions entering the market + decreased supply because of production cuts + summer driving season + Iranian tensions = higher prices.

Metals May Be Looking At a Summer Rally

Here are three charts that may indicate metals are thinking about a summer rally:

Here's a chart for copper:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

This is the weakest of the three charts, largely because of large sell-off and gapping down formation. The gap down could be a selling-exhaustion gap, indicating the last of the sellers finally got out of the metal at the beginning of the year. Using Gann style accumulation analysis, this means the only buyers will be longer term investors who are looking at making a long-term play. If that is the case, than copper has formed a base here and is looking to rally.

Here's a chart for Palladium:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

We saw consolidation in the latter part of last year in a classic triangle trading pattern. This period essentially shook-out the positions from the previous rally and allowed other longer-term players to accumulate longer-term positions. Either way, the 6-month consolidation helped to establish a base for a summer rally.

Here's the chart for Silver:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

This chart's analysis mirrors that for Palladium, although the triangle consolidation is a bit wider.

All of these charts are possibly signaling an upward move. Remember we still have China and India on-line for very strong growth rates, increasing demand for base metals.

Sub-Prime Funds Drying Up

From the WSJ:

Fears about defaults are slowing the gusher of investor funds going to riskier segments of the mortgage market. That means less money available for "subprime" loans to riskier borrowers, forcing lenders to focus more on borrowers who can afford down payments and have well documented finances. With fewer lower-income Americans able to buy homes, downward pressure on prices will probably increase.

These pressures have intensified in recent days. The cost of insuring mortgage-bond holders against default risk, as measured by the so-called ABX index, has soared, deepening the concerns of investors in collateralized debt obligations, among the biggest holders of riskier mortgage bonds. Managers of some CDOs are delaying new offerings to "wait for the dust to settle," a process that could take weeks or months, says Chris Flanagan, head of CDO research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

"CDO managers and hedge funds still want to do CDOs, but the conditions are much, much tougher," David Liu, a mortgage analyst with UBS AG, adds.


So, lenders still want to do deals, but are actually asking for documentation and savings and being more selective.

"It's tightening up a lot," said Eddie Carmona, branch manager at Homewood Mortgage in Carrollton, Texas, a mortgage broker that handles subprime borrowers.

Carmona said down payment requirements are the biggest change he's seen.

"Before, you didn't have to bring a down payment," Carmona said.

Other changes:

Higher credit scores. Previously, borrowers with a FICO credit score as low as 570 (out of 850) could qualify for a single loan financing 100 percent of their home purchase, Carmona said.

"Now, across the board, it's jumped up to a 600 FICO score for an 80/20 loan," Carmona said, in which a second loan has to be taken out to finance the remaining 20 percent of the home value.

Rising interest rates. Rates on subprime mortgages have risen about a full percentage point since September, Carmona said, while regular mortgage rates have been relatively steady.

More stringent savings requirements. "They want to see borrowers have at least three months of reserves in their account in case of an emergency," Carmona said.


The 2006 vintage sub-prime loans are already defaulting at a high rate. That indicates lending standards were far too loose.

However, I think an economist can convincingly argue the increase in home ownership in 2006 and probably the latter part of 2005 was largely the result of very lax credit standards. Assuming that is true, that means the latter part of the housing boom was essentially a speculative excess rather than actual investment. That means we're going to have a prolonged shakeout period where poor credit risks have to be shaken out. This will lead to a prolonged period of correction in the housing market.

BA Reservations

Well done BA for further damaging their already badly soiled brand value.

I made a bold and futile attempt to contact their reservations line this morning, on 0870 850 9 850 (the number specified on their website).

Having pressed the various option buttons, and listened to the "tinny" music, I was informed that I had dialed the wrong number and was given a new number to dial.

Can you guess what that was?

Yes, that's right 0870 850 9 850!

I rang the Executive Club, and was told that in fact the number should be 0870 850 4 850 and that the BA website was wrong.

I rang the new number...

Guess what?

I had the very same experience.

Well done lads!

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Home Supply Stores See Earnings Drop

From the Houston Chronicle:

Lowe's Cos., the nation's second biggest home improvement store chain, said Friday that its fourth-quarter profit fell 11.5 percent due to a slowing home improvement market amid a continued slump in the housing sector.

The Mooresville, N.C.-based retailer said it earned $613 million, or 40 cents a share, for the three months ended Feb. 2, down from $693 million, or 43 cents a share, a year earlier.

Revenue fell to $10.4 billion from $10.8 billion a year earlier. Same-store sales, or sales in stores open at least one year, a key measure of industry performance, fell 5.3 percent.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had been looking for net income of 37 cents a share on revenue of $10.36 billion. The estimate for earnings typically excludes one-time items.

On Tuesday, rival Home Depot Inc., the nation's largest home improvement store chain, said its fourth-quarter income dropped 28 percent. Its same-store sales dropped 6.6 percent.

"Sales continued to be pressured by a slowing housing market, tough comparisons to last year's hurricane recovery and rebuilding efforts and significant deflation in lumber and plywood prices," Robert A. Niblock, Lowe's chairman and chief executive said in a statement accompanying the results.


I don't see how this news can bolster any argument housing is bottoming. The short version is we still have a ways to go here.

Is Gold Telling Us Inflation Expectations Are Rising?

I'm not a big gold bug. However, gold can tell us what people may be thinking about inflation. If gold prices are increasing, it may signal that people think inflation will pick-up.

Here's a chart of the gold ETF:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Last week, the ETF broke through resistance on strong volume. In addition, an uptrend is strongly intact. Both of these moves indicate a bull run may have started.

Here's the weekly chart:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Notice the chart spent about 6 months consolidating gains in a classic triangle formation. Then last week, the chart broke-out on strong weekly volume. We also have a strong uptrend intact.

What set this off? Last week we had a bearish CPI report from the BLS. Here's a chart of the rolling change on CPI from The Capital Spectator

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

As the CS noted:

Core CPI is now running at a 2.7% annual pace through last month. That's up from 2.6% for 2006 and close to the peak of recent years (2.9%) set last September. The rising pace of core inflation is a problem because the Fed is widely reported to have a target of 1-2% for core. By that standard, the central bank is behind the monetary eight ball.

The Fed, in sum, has more work to do to bring core CPI down, or at least convince the market that core CPI is no longer rising. There's reason to wonder how this task will play out. As we reported on Monday, the pace of growth is rising for M2 money supply. Coincidence? For the moment, we prefer to err on the side of caution and answer "no."


So long as inflation is in that kind of uptrend, gold has a strong wind at its back.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

The Market's Last Week

Here's a chart of the SPYs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

The uptrend is still firmly in place. The SPYs pretty much treaded water last week. They did well off on Friday on decent volume. This indicates there is some selling pressure in the market. But until a downtrend breaks through a level of technical support this type of selling is simply short-term profit taking.

Here's a chart of the QQQQs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

We did have increasing volume on the rally, but again we hit the 45.50 area and met selling pressure. While we do have a mini-rally in place, the average is a bit extended from the 20 day SMA. The last time the QQQQs did this they reverted back to the 20 day SMA. Friday's sell-off had some decent volume. This indicates the market still thinks 45.50 is a selling level.

Here's a chart for the IWNs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

While the market rallied starting in late January and consolidated these gains in a triangle formation in mid-February, volume has steadily headed lower. This indicates a lack of buying enthusiasm as the rally has progressed. At the same time, Friday's sell-off was on lower volume, indicating the selling isn't the most enthusiastic.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Oil, Inflation and Interest Rates

From Bernanke's recent Congressional testimony:

I turn now to the inflation situation. As I noted earlier, there are some indications that inflation pressures are beginning to diminish. The monthly data are noisy, however, and it will consequently be some time before we can be confident that underlying inflation is moderating as anticipated. Recent declines in overall inflation have primarily reflected lower prices for crude oil, which have fed through to the prices of gasoline, heating oil, and other energy products used by consumers. After moving higher in the first half of 2006, core consumer price inflation has also edged lower recently, reflecting a relatively broad-based deceleration in the prices of core goods. That deceleration is probably also due to some extent to lower energy prices, which have reduced costs of production and thereby lessened one source of pressure on the prices of final goods and services. The ebbing of core inflation has likely been promoted as well by the stability of inflation expectations.


Translation: Lower oil prices are a big reason for declining inflation.

Here's an oil chart the includes today's close:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Ben's not happy right now.

Mortgage Writedowns hit HR Block

From the Street:

The Kansas City, Mo., company reported its mortgage results as discontinued operations, as it's seeking to sell that business. The mortgage operation posted a loss of $69.7 million, or 22 cents a share, compared to a year-ago net profit of $42.4 million, or 13 cents a share.

The loss from discontinued operations "reflects an increase of loan loss reserves of approximately $111 million," it says.

H&R Block announced in November that it was considering "strategic alternatives" for its subprime mortgage business, Option One, which includes a possible sale. The company said Thursday that it expects to make an announcement about that next month.


According to Yahoo Finance, HR Block has $2.7 billion in current assets. That means this loan loss reserve increase won't send the company into bankruptcy court. But, a $111 million increase is more than a merely inconsequential amount. Other sub-prime lenders are having to make the same increases in their respective loan loss provisions.

Oil Closes Above $60/bbl

Here's a chart from stockcharts:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Looking at the raw data, here's what we have. Starting in mid-January, oil rose from it's lows and ran into resistance at the 50 day simple moving average. For about the next month, traders consolidated these gains. Yesterday, oil closed over the psychologically important level of $60/bbl. In addition, it appears the 20 day simple moving average is about to cross the 50 day average. The price is trading above the 20 and 50 SMA. Finally, the uptrend is still firmly in place. In short, there are a lot of strong technical reasons for this chart to continue moving up.

There were a few fundamental reasons for yesterday's move. The first is geopolitical, as the Iran/US clash is still ongoing and internal strife in Niger threatens oil production. In addition, the Department of Energy reported a decrease in oil stocks for the week. We are also approaching the summer driving season when demand should pick-up. And China and India are still growing at a high clip, adding further upward pressure to prices.

In short, the bulls have a lot to be happy about right now.

The next bullish move would be a retesting of the $60 line in a short sell-off.

5,000 Complaints A Day

The financial ombudsman is receiving up to 5,000 complaints a day from angry bank customers, in respect of high penalty charges.

It seems that, as the numbers of complaints are rocketing, there is something of a "customer revolt" over bank charges.

A year ago the Ombudsman received about 100 calls a day from the public over bank charges.

The FOS said the number of complaints it is receiving is unprecedented.

A spokesman said:

"It has even eclipsed mortgage endowment complaints. We usually get 200 to 250 of them a day, so it has well surpassed that."

Martin Lewis, financial pundit, said:

"The campaign to reclaim has been given huge impetus this week by the angry response of UK consumers to the enormous profits being reported day after day by Britain's banks, who are taking money unfairly from people's accounts.

This week it hit tipping point, as a whole new band of Britons grit their teeth to get their money back
."

The banks are also waiting for the results of an investigation by the OFT on the issue of charges.

Earlier this week Barclays posted £7BN in profits, and analysts predict the "big five" alone will report more than £38BN in profits from last year.

Whilst the "consumer revolt" gathers momentum, those who manage to reclaim their charges should remember that banks are not charities. In the event that the banks are blocked from making money by levying charges for unauthorised overdrafts etc, the banks will find other methods of making money, such as abolishing free banking.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

10th District Manufacturing Increases

From the KC Fed:

Tenth District manufacturing activity growth rebounded strongly in February, and expectations for future factory hiring and capital spending rose as well. The majority of price indexes in the survey increased moderately for the second straight month, due largely to rising food prices.

The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in February was 18, up from 5 in January and 7 in December (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). Production accelerated at most types of factories, but especially among producers of machinery and high-tech equipment. The overall year-over-year production index also increased from 19 to 31, and the future production index remained steady after a slight decrease last month. Although sample sizes make it difficult to draw firm conclusions about individual states, the data available suggest that production remained well above year-ago levels in all district states.

Like production, the majority of other month-over-month indexes increased significantly. The new order index jumped from 9 to 20, and the shipments index also increased for the second straight month. Growth in the order backlog index expanded for the first time in four months, rising from -4 to 9. In addition, the employment, new orders for exports, and supplier delivery time indexes all recorded solid gains. The raw materials inventory index increased to its highest level in six months, while the finished goods inventory index remained unchanged.


This is solid news. Last months overall industrial production decreased .5%. This is the second manufacturing survey that has shown strong improvement this month. The first was the NY Fed.

Don't Like the Savings Figure? Redefine it!

From the Mess That Greenspan Made:

Everyone just stop it! If, in some twisted sort of way, redefining "wealth" or "net worth" as "savings" makes you feel better about the world and your own lot in life, then go ahead and do it - just do it in private.

Whatever gets you through the day.

But, please, stop sharing your rationalizations with the rest of us who prefer to continue believing that "savings" (as either a verb or a noun) is not something that can come and go as quickly as a subprime lender.

Call it old fashioned if you want, but, just leave the word "savings" alone. Please.


Click the link. And enjoy. It's about time someone started to mention this on a regular basis.

Sup-Prime Problems Continue

From Bloomberg

The perceived risk of owning low- rated subprime mortgage bonds rose to a record for a fifth day after Moody's Investors Service said it may cut the loan servicing ratings of five lenders.

An index of credit-default swaps linked to 20 securities rated BBB-, the lowest investment grade, and sold in the second half of 2006 today fell 5.6 percent to 74.2, according to Markit Group Ltd. It's down 24 percent since being introduced Jan. 18, meaning an investor would pay more than $1.12 million a year to protect $10 million of bonds against default, up from $389,000.

Moody's said late yesterday that it may cut the so-called servicer ratings for affiliates or units of lenders including Irvine, California-based New Century Financial Corp., the second- largest lender to subprime borrowers. Declines in the ABX-HE-BBB- 07-1 and similar indexes accelerated this month as New Century and HSBC Holdings PLC, the biggest lender, said more of their loans were going bad than they expected. London-based HSBC today said the head of its North American unit stepped down.


The news in this area of the market continues to show deterioration. I will admit I am still very surprised this has not spilled over into the larger economy as a whole in the form of lowered consumer spending or decreased consumer confidence.

Stronger Labor Laws Needed to Address U.S. Income Equality

Photo credit: Office of Communications, Princeton University
Paul Krugman



Those on the reactionary side of the political spectrum are big proponents of equal opportunity-the outcome, whether you make a decent living, live high off the hog or suffer in poverty-is up to the individual.

In today’s U.S. economy, such reasoning is flawed, says economist Paul Krugman. Instead, the nation’s increasingly unequal distribution of wealth translates into unequal opportunity-a principle even conservatives should oppose. An array of forces-including growing imports, the falling real value of minimum wage and slower unionization-have contributed to this growing gap.

Krugman, a professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University, delivered the keynote speech today at the second briefing of the Agenda for Shared Prosperity, a network of more than 50 progressive U.S. economists, policy analysts and academics sponsored by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI). Today’s event, held on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., featured top-name leaders spearheading the fight for workers and their families. Although they spoke on a variety of topics, their comments shared a common theme: The American dream is slipping away for many hard-working families, and one of the key ways to restore that dream is by enabling workers who want to join unions to do so.

Krugman, also a columnist for The New York Times, said a powerful union movement bolstered the middle-class economy of the post-World War II decades but, in recent years, a political climate that encourages or at best winks at corporate union-busting has meant fewer workers who want to join unions can do so.

In fact, as professor Harley Shaiken writes in one of the four reports the Agenda for Shared Prosperity released today: “The yawning gap between robust demand to join unions and anemic membership numbers reflects the fact that for many Americans joining a union has become a risky proposition. Twenty-three thousand people a year are disciplined or fired for union activity resulting in a big chill on labor’s numbers and a ‘democracy deficit’ for the entire society.” Shaiken, a professor in the Graduate School of Education and Department of Geography at the University of California, Berkeley, writes in “Unions, the Economy and Employee Free Choice”:
An effective way to address the “democracy deficit” is through the Employee Free Choice Act....It allows workers to form a union if a majority of people in a workplace sign up for one. In addition, it provides meaningful penalties for those who would violate workers’ rights and insures that if workers choose a union collective bargaining actually results. The act restores balance to a system that currently is driven by aggressive employers, anti-union consultants, coercion and fear.
Some 233 co-sponsors are backing the Employee Free Choice Act, introduced in the House earlier this month as H.R. 800, and working families and their unions are taking part in a week of action in more than 100 cities thanking lawmakers who support the bill and urging others to sign on.

In a paper analyzing polling and survey data, economist Richard Freeman from Harvard University further made the case for the need to change the nation’s labor laws that currently are tilted in favor of Big Business. In his report, “Do Workers Still Want Unions? More than Ever,” Freeman concludes that:

In 2002 the proportion of workers who said they would vote for a union rose above the proportion that said they would vote against a union for the first time in any national survey: a majority of nonunion workers now desire union representation in their workplace.

America’s workers know that by joining unions, they can significantly improve their livelihoods, job security and future for their families. As Tom Kochan and Beth Shulman note, millions of America’s working families fail to have the necessary means for basic self-sufficiency—and it looks no better for the next generation. In their report, “A New Social Contract: Restoring Dignity and Balance to the Economy,” they write:

In 2000, the average high-school educated workers age 25–29 started out earning about $5,000 less real income and could expect slower growth in earnings than those who entered the labor force in 1970. Workers with some college started about $3,500 behind their 1970 counterparts.
Kochan is co-director of the Institute for Work and Employment Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Shulman authored The Betrayal of Work: How Low-Wage Jobs Fail 30 Million Americans and Their Families. They find the decline in middle-class living standards, the elimination of institutions that support a growing middle class and the dramatic increase in income equality experienced in recent years is not the result of some invisible hand.
It is the direct result of policy choices that have undermined the bargaining power of every-day Americans. Instead of instituting policies in this global economy to ensure a broadly shared prosperity, we have made choices that benefit the few.

The implicit social contract that governed work for many years—the norm that hard work, loyalty, and good performance will be rewarded with fair and increasing wages, dignity, and security—has broken down and been replaced by a norm in which employers give primacy to stock price and short term gains at the expense of America’s workers.

As a result, the American Dream is slipping away from millions of Americans and their families. A majority of Amer­icans now worry their children will not be able to improve on the standard of living they experienced growing up. If this is not the legacy we want to leave the next generation, then we need to start now to put in place forward-looking policies and labor market institutions to build a new social contract tailored to today’s workforce, families, and economy.
Throughout the year, the Agenda for Shared Prosperity will address the economic issues facing working families and offer solutions through reports on jobs, the economy, health care and more. In January, the Agenda for Shared Prosperity launch highlighted economist Jeff Faux’s “Globalization that Works for Working Americans” and Jacob Hacker’s “Health Care for America: A Proposal for Guaranteed, Affordable Health Care for All Americans Building on Medicare and Employment-Based Insurance.” In setting out a course of action for coming years, the Agenda for Shared Prosperity seeks to steer a stronger course for the nation’s economy—which some opinion-makers in the Democratic Party deny is headed in the wrong direction. As economist Tom Palley writes this week on TomPaine.com:

This denial was recently on display in a report, "The New Rules Economy," issued by Third Way, an influential new Democrat think tank in Washington. The report denies America’s working families have been shortchanged. In doing so, it misrepresents economic reality, undercuts working families and gives comfort to supporters of corporate excess. That makes the Third Way the wrong way.

Palley goes on to point out how such groups as the Third Way deny that family income has stagnated and that there is no problem with excessive CEO pay, the massive trade deficit or household debt.

In another TomPaine article, Palley offers a “memo” to presidential contenders in which he suggests a road map for progressive Democrats to reverse the laissez-faire extremism of the past 30 years. Read it here.

Oil Breaks $60/bbl. Will it Close there?

From FxStreet:

Oil broke through the 60 usd level as US stocks of distillates dropped by more than the market had expected

Data from the Energy Information Administration showed that last week distillate stocks, which include heating oil, fell by 5 mln barrels against analysts' expectations of 3.5 mln barrels

Gasoline inventories fell by 3.1 mln barrels against expectations of a 950,000 drop


Closing above $60 will be a significant psychological event.

A Must Read

Go read Fed's Yellen on Housing at Calculated Risk. It's at the top of the page. CR has done a great job with the housing market -- and this article will only solidify his reputation in that regard.

Fed Governor's Comments: We're Not Lowering Rates

From Bloomberg:

Federal Reserve officials, armed with figures showing inflation picking up, made it clear that they aren't close to cutting interest rates.

Hours after the government reported yesterday that consumer prices rose more than forecast in January, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said she supports the Fed's tightening bias. St. Louis Fed President William Poole said in an interview that the central bank must act if inflation fails to subside.

The remarks, together with minutes of January's policy meeting also published yesterday, show the central bank isn't contemplating the rate cuts that some economists still pencil in for later this year. The minutes said the Fed considered, then rejected, changing the paragraph in its statement that describes inflation and the policy stance.

....

Yesterday's comments and minutes reflect Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's congressional testimony last week, in which he gave an upbeat economic assessment and suggested he isn't in a hurry to either restrict or loosen credit. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept the central bank's benchmark rate at 5.25 percent since ending a two-year run of increases in August and voted unanimously to hold it there on Jan. 31.

In the statement released that day, the Fed repeated its stance that ``some inflation risks remain'' along with language in the same paragraph that has become known as the tightening bias: ``The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth.''


Can we please stop talking about a rate cut now? Fed governors have been very clear they are not lowering rates anytime in the near future.

In addition, the main reason for the drop in inflation is oil prices. Right now the oil market is consolidating below $60/bbl and we're approaching the summer driving season. In addition, Iran and the US are having a diplomatic war of words and Niger is still having internal problems.

Miners Looking to Up Investments

From the WSJ:

Prices for some of the world's commodities have slipped in recent months. But big mining companies continue to pump up investment and make plans to carve out more mines -- moves that could bring prices down further in the years ahead.

Anglo-Australian giants BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto PLC and other megaminers collectively have projects valued at tens of billions of dollars in the works.

Among them are large expansions in production of iron ore, coal, nickel and other raw materials whose prices have soared in recent years amid demand from China and elsewhere.


The article goes on to note one of the primary reasons for the increase is China's continued growth. While the article did not mention India, I would guess that country's growth also plays into the equation.

Let's take a look at the Copper future's chart:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Copper dropped in price starting in May of last year. There were a large number of reasons for this drop. Inventories were high. In addition, a ton of money has flowed into the commodities markets over the last few years. In essence, commodities have become the high-tech growth area of this bull market. While there are strong fundamental reasons for this increase (largely related to China and India coming on line as growing economies), there were also a large number of hedge funds etc... moving in. This pumped up commodities prices, perhaps above their actual worth. Be that as it may, China and India are still growing at high rates. That's almost 2 billion people who are seeing an increase in their wages and standard of living who will probably want all sorts of consumer stuff. In other words, these growing economies provide a natural floor to some of these prices.

Here are some industry charts from Prophet.net that show some of the better performing industries. These are 5 year charts, which really show the bull run these stocks have experienced:

Copper companies:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Steel and Iron

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Metals and Mining:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Industrial Metals and Mining:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Obviously there is no guarantee these sectors will continue to move-up. But the fact that industry members are willing to open their wallets and start to increase capacity indicates they are bullish on the future.

Food For Thought.

Toll Brothers Revenue Drops on Cancelations

From the Wall Street Journal:

Luxury-home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said net income fell 67% in its fiscal first quarter, hit by write-downs and an impairment charge. Revenue declined 19%.

The Horsham, Pa., company earned $54.3 million, or 33 cents a share, for the three months ended Jan. 31, down from $163.9 million, or 98 cents a share, a year earlier. The latest results included write-downs of $59 million, or 36 cents a share, and a goodwill-impairment charge of three cents a share, related to the company's 1999 acquisition of the Silverman Companies in Detroit. Excluding the write-downs and charge, first-quarter earnings were 72 cents a share, down 27%.

Revenue fell 19% to $1.09 billion from $1.34 billion.

A survey of analysts by Thomson Financial produced a consensus estimate of 29 cents a share for the first quarter.


This market is nowhere near a bottom yet.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

FOMC Statement

From the FOMC

All meeting participants expressed some concern about the outlook for inflation. To be sure, incoming data had suggested some improvement in core inflation, and a further gradual decline was seen as the most likely outcome, fostered in part by the continued stability of inflation expectations. However, participants did not yet see a downtrend in core inflation as definitively established. Although lower energy prices, declining core import prices, and a deceleration in owners' equivalent rent were expected to contribute to slower core inflation in coming months, the effects of some of these factors on inflation could well be temporary. The influence of more enduring factors, importantly including pressures in labor and product markets and the behavior of inflation expectations, would primarily determine the extent of more persistent progress. In light of the apparent underlying strength in aggregate demand, risks around the desired path of a further gradual decline in core inflation remained mainly to the upside. Participants emphasized that a failure of inflation to moderate as expected could impair the long-term performance of the economy.


Today's news didn't help. Rates aren't coming down anytime soon. Anyone who thinks differently just isn't reading.

Another One Bites the Dust

From the WSJ:

Late Tuesday, NovaStar reported a net loss available to common shareholders of $14.4 million, or 39 cents a share, in the fourth quarter. A year earlier, the company generated net income available to common shareholders of $26.4 million, or 84 cents a share.

Problems with mortgages originated in 2006 knocked $17.4 million, or 47 cents a share, off fourth-quarter earnings. Provisions for losses on loans NovaStar has been forced to repurchase cut $13.4 million, or 36 cents a share, off results. More provisions for losses on a package of early 2006 mortgages the company securitized cost it another $10.3 million, or 28 cents a share, NovaStar said.


This shake-out is getting really ugly.

Inflation Increases .3%

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The January level of 202.416 (1982-84=100) was 2.1 percent higher than in January 2006.


From Bloomberg:

U.S. consumer prices rose more than forecast in January as Americans paid more for food, medical care and airfares, suggesting inflationary pressures persist.


From CBS Marketwatch:

U.S. consumer prices increased 0.2% in January, led by large gains in food, medical care and tobacco prices, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

Core inflation, which ignores movements in food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in January, the biggest increase since June.

The greater-than-expected consumer price index could lessen the odds that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. The core CPI is up 2.7% in the past year, a notch higher than the 2.6% year-on-year rate in November and December.


Note that major news outlets are saying this increase is more than forecast.

There were big jumps in food and beverages (up .7) and medical care (up .8). Energy decreased 1.5%, but it's important to remember oil dropped mid-January and rebounded later in the month (see below).

The compound annual 3-month growth rate was 2% -- right at the upper-end of the Fed's comfort zone. The unadjusted 12-month growth rate was 2.7%.

For some reason, there has been a call for the Fed to decrease interest rates. The problem with this prediction is all of the Fed governors have stated inflation is still too high for each governor's personal preference. In other words, rates aren't coming down anytime soon. This report simply solidifies that situation.

Oil Market Update

The chart below indicates two trends. The first is an upward trend started in mid-January. The second is a consolidation trend started in mid-February.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

We have the following currents in the markets right now:

Bullish:

Since then rising political tension involving Middle Eastern and African oil producers and reduced output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has provided some support for prices, but they have struggled to break above $60 a barrel.

OPEC member Iran, the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, which has been in dispute with the West over its nuclear ambitions for well over a year, remains defiant.

On Wednesday, it vowed to press on with its nuclear fuel programme, ignoring a U.N. deadline to freeze uranium enrichment or face broader sanctions, but it offered to guarantee it would not try to develop nuclear weapons. [nL2194927]

Tensions are also rising in Africa's biggest producer Nigeria ahead of April elections. Already militant attacks have shut a fifth of output.


Bearish:

Mild weather in top consumer the United States has cut into demand, however, and is acting as a drag on prices. U.S. heating oil demand is expected to be about two percent below normal this week, the U.S. National Weather Service said.


Finally, we have the upcoming summer driving season which is a net plus for demand.

So -- how will this play out? Only time will tell.

Projections of the Housing Hangover

From Bloomberg:

New and existing home sales dropped almost 10 percent last year, depressing demand for products from copper pipes to kitchen sinks and resulting in the loss of about 100,000 jobs in the U.S. Housing-related unemployment probably will increase in 2007, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Even if the housing market improves in the second half of 2007, as the National Association of Realtors predicts, sales of furniture and construction supplies will stagnate, said Amal Bendimerad, a research analyst at the Harvard center. Housing and related industries account for about 23 percent of the economy, according to the center.

``Appliance manufacturers and other suppliers are already feeling the heat, but they may not feel the full impact until the end of 2007,'' Bendimerad said. ``There's typically a lag of as much as a year.''

......

U.S. furniture makers fired 28,000 workers in the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Homebuilders have cut 24,000 jobs in the past three months alone. The U.K.'s Wolseley Plc, the world's biggest distributor of plumbing and heating equipment, has eliminated about 4,500 positions in the U.S., about the same number that Whirlpool plans to shed.

Masco, maker of Behr paint and Delta faucets, is firing 8,000 people, or about 16 percent of its U.S. workforce, after reporting its first loss in five years. Emerson Electric, based in St. Louis, cut 230 jobs at a plant that makes furnace components and Stanley Furniture in Stanleytown, Virginia, fired half the workers at one of its factories.


There is obviously a great deal of debate about housing's overall economic impact. Also -- the numbers above are projections. It's practically impossible to predict with any degree of certainly exactly what an economy as complicated as the US will do. So take them with a grain of salt.

I did a quick read of the overall employment statistics about a year ago. To me, it looked like approximately 30% of job creation was directly or indirectly related to housing. As is my usual method of econometric analysis, I simply wanted to get a feel for what might be happening. The blog Calculated Risk has been predicting a loss of 200,000 - 400,000 construction jobs as a result of the housing slump. I have guestimated an additional 200,000 of professional and financial jobs.

The point of all this is we have yet to see a really bad hit to the employment numbers from the housing market. That is likely to change fairly soon. The large drop-off in housing starts this month will hit construction jobs within the next 3-4 months. I would expect financial and professionally related losses to begin in about 6 months as the number of new houses coming on line drops.

Japan Raises Interest Rates

From the WSJ

The Bank of Japan on Wednesday decided to raise interest rates, breaking free from a policy impasse that had kept Japan's super-low borrowing costs unchanged since July, and indicating its continued effort to pursue its goal of slow but steady monetary tightening.

The central bank's nine-member policy board voted eight to one to boost the target for short-term rates by 0.25 percentage point to 0.5%. The move came after the BOJ decided against a rate increase in December and again in January amid persistent weakness in some economic indicators and calls from politicians to keep monetary policy unchanged.

The closely watched move marked the first change in Japan's monetary policy after the Bank of Japan in July ended its five-year-old policy of keeping its benchmark rate at zero.

Despite Wednesday's increase, economists expect the pace of future rate increase will remain slow, given the current sluggishness in personal consumption and slow increases in the consumer price index.


However, it's not a great booming economy yet:

Ativity in Japan's service sector fell for the second straight month in December as warm weather damped retail trade, adding to speculation that consumer spending in the world's second-largest economy has yet to fully recover.

...

Friday's data showed that the financial-services index climbed 0.8% in December from November, although wholesale and retail trade index fell 0.5%, which reflects the overall trend of consumer spending.


Japanese interest rates have been the root of much speculation among economists for some time. When will they start raising rates and how fast etc.. Well now they have made a first step. However, the recovery of the Japanese economy is still nascent, implying the interest rate policy could change.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

The Markets That Never Corrected

Several weeks ago, there was a fair amount of ink devoted to the topic of "it's been a really long time since the markets have corrected." Well, it has been. As the charts below show, the SPYs are still in a strong uptrend, the QQQQs are consolidating in a sideways move and the IWNs consolidated sideways then started to rally again.

All markets correct; it's not a matter of if, but when.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Wal-Mart Sales Increase

From Reuters:

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. on Tuesday posted higher quarterly profit after the world's biggest retailer cut prices on hot items like toys and electronics to lure customers during the holiday shopping season.

Net income rose to $3.94 billion, or 95 cents per share, in the fourth quarter that ended on January 31, compared with $3.59 billion or 86 cents per share a year ago.

Fourth quarter earnings included a boost of $98 million, or 2 cents per share, related to a tax benefit.

Excluding the benefit, analysts on average had been expecting profit of 90 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.


Wal-Mart's sheer size makes them an industry benchmark. According to the Yahoo Discount Retailer industry page, Wal-Mart is 66% of the industry at $202 billion and is 4 times larger than their nearest competitor target. In other words, this is a really important company.

These numbers indicate the Christmas season wasn't bad. That's good news for the economy.

SEC Investigating Possible Inside-Information Scandal

From Forbes:

In early February, the SEC confirmed that it was investigating whether the major brokerage houses were tipping off hedge funds to the trades the brokers handle for big clients like mutual funds. If that's happening, it would be a scandal.

The SEC is also likely to scour trading records to see if the brokers are using info about clients' moves to invest their own capital. If the SEC finds evidence that they are, the scandal would be enormous - and go to the heart of Wall Street's profit machine.

A big question mark hangs over Wall Street: How is it that the top firms consistently beat the odds, earning spectacular returns on their own investments? Last year the five biggest U.S. investment banks - Morgan Stanley (Charts), Goldman Sachs (Charts), Merrill Lynch (Charts), Lehman Brothers (Charts) and Bear Stearns (Charts) - generated $61 billion from proprietary trading, about half their total revenue and a 54 percent increase over 2005.

Those returns have raised eyebrows for years. "Even the greatest investors lose money at some point, but the Wall Street firms never seem to lose," marvels Tiger Williams, chief of Williams Trading, a firm that attributes its success to keeping its hedge fund clients' trades strictly confidential.


Just what the street needs -- another scandal. It does seem that each bull market brings a fair amount of scandal with it. What makes this interesting is the increased political blow-back against the Sarbannes-Oxley legislation enacted after the Enron scandal.

The firms names are some of the largest on the street. If this scandal blows up, it could get very ugly.

Home Depot's Earnings Drop 28%

From Bloomberg:

Home Depot Inc., which ousted Chief Executive Officer Robert Nardelli last month over compensation, said profit fell 28 percent as the biggest drop in U.S. home sales in 15 years sapped demand for building supplies. Earnings missed analyst estimates.

Net income declined to $925 million, or 46 cents a share, from $1.29 billion, or 60 cents, a year earlier, Atlanta-based Home Depot said today in a statement. Sales for the three months ended Jan. 28 rose 4 percent to $20.3 billion from $19.5 billion.

Sales at Home Depot's retail unit fell 2 percent to $17.4 billion. New CEO Frank Blake plans to offer fewer discounts and more Home Depot workers on the sales floor to compete against Lowe's Cos., according to analysts who have met with him.


From CBS MarketWatch:

Home Depot Inc. delivered a lower fourth-quarter net profit Tuesday, partly as a result of a charge taken to cover executive severance costs. Financial results for the Atlanta-based company and Dow Jones Industrial Average component also reflected the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.

Quarterly sales were similarly sluggish for Home Depot, rising 4% to reach nearly $20.27 billion. Sales at stores open longer than a year, the industry's growth benchmark known as comparable-store sales, fell 6.6%, however.


Home Depot has experienced a large amount of corporate drama over the last few months, largely related to the compensation package of a recently fired CEO.

It's also important to note that overall sales increased 4% for the quarter. That means there was a large one time increase in expenses that hit these numbers as well. In short, there are some pretty big internal negatives outside of the housing slowdown hitting these numbers.

However, that doesn't change the overall picture of the industry. The impact of a slowing housing market is starting to bleed out into the economy as a whole as reflected by the 6.6% drop in same store sales.

Monday, February 19, 2007

Not Cheap, But Not Expensive

This is a table from Barron's that shows how cheap or expensive the markets are. Right now, we're somewhere in between. Here's the S&P 500. The first number is latest week, the second column is the previous week and the third column is same week for the previous year.


S&P 500 Index
P/E Ratio 17.7 18.3 18
Earnings Yield (%)5.65 5.46 5.55
Earns $ 82.23 78.57 71.5
Dividend Yield (%)1.8 1.82 1.85
Dividends ($) 26.2 26.17 23.81
Market to Book 3.21 3.17 3.1
Book Value ($) 453.06 453.06 414.75

The PE ratio decreased slightly from the previous year, although we're still in the same ballpark. Notice the big move in earnings. This is the primary reason for the lack of increase in the PE ratio. Earnings are increasing about the same rate as stock prices.

Dollar Update

Here's a daily chart of the US Dollar index from Stockcharts:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

The dollar broke through support in the 84.50 area. This is where Bernanke's testimony last week hurt. The market's interpreted Bernanke's statements as meaning there would be no interest rate increases in the future. At the same time traders are expecting another rate hike from the EU area. Combined, these events are dollar bearish. Also note the dollar broke the uptrend of the recent rally.

Here's a weekly chart:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Notice that we have two downtrends, neither of which was broken over the last few months. It looks like the dollar rally is near over.

Sunday, February 18, 2007

How Long Can This Trend Last?

This is a chart of the percent change from the preceding quarter in personal consumption expenditures.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

The last time this figure decreased was in 1992. That is 16 years ago. How long can this trend of positive growth continue? The US savings rate (income - expenditures) has been negative for the past 5 quarters.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


Household debt has increased to over 90% of GDP and 120% of disposable income. US households greatly increased debt acquisition over this expansion, as this chart of the year-over-year percent change in household debt indicates.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Debt payments now consume the largest amount of disposable income on record.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

How much more can the US consumer purchase before he pulls in his wings?

More Market Technicals

I finally broke down an purchased a few online news subscriptions -- The WSJ and Barrons. Both were reasonably priced.

Barron's has a new feature called "Technically Speaking" which deals with --- technical analysis of the markets (go figure). This week they have two really good charts.

This is a comparison of the S&P 500 and the NY New High/New Low line. Here's the chart:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

The market breadth -- the number of issues making new highs versus the number making new lows -- is still very positive. The chart shows we're still in a solid uptrend, adding further fuel to the bull's fire.

Let's add one more chart for the NYSE from Stockcharts. This is a chart of the cumulative advancing versus declining issues.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

As with the new high/new low figure, this chart is still firmly in an uptrend, bolstering the bulls argument.

Let's move over to the NASDAQ. Here's a chart of the market combined with on balance volume.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

This chart is more bearish, as the OBV is declining. However, the OBV is in a slight decline as opposed to a free-falling drop.

To round it out, here's another chart from Stockcharts showing the NASDAQ's advancing versus declining issues.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

While this chart shows some recent gains for this breadth indicator, the give and take of this chart for the last few months signals the index is not as strong as the NYSE. Traders are obviously concerned about the market to some degree. While we aren't in bear market territory, we are in yellow alert territory (for all you Star Trek fans out there). This indicator bears watching over the next few weeks.

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Sub-Prime Mortgage Derivatives Drop for 4th Week

From Bloomberg:

A derivatives index used to bet on bonds backed by the riskiest U.S. mortgages fell for the fourth straight week as more subprime lenders reported losing money.

Prices for credit-default swaps linked to 20 securities rated BBB-, the lowest investment grade, and created in the second half of 2006 fell 2.8 percent to 82.82 this week, and are down 15 percent since being introduced Jan. 18. The decline means an investor this week would have paid more than $950,000 a year to protect $10 million of bonds against default.

The tumble is being exacerbated by hedge funds using the index to make bearish bets and a dearth of investors willing to use them to make bullish bets, said investors such as Dean Smith of New York-based Highland Financial Holdings Group LLC, which manages $2 billion including mortgage bonds. The cost to protect against default using the index was more than two-and-a-half times that to insure individual securities on Feb. 12, Bear Stearns Cos. said.

``We've yet to see the floor on where these things can go,'' said Paul Colonna, a fixed-income manager for Stamford, Connecticut-based GE Asset Management, which oversees $199 billion. ``And it's not based on housing data or performance data'' on mortgages in the bonds.


These bonds were recently introduced -- as in about a month ago. Since then they have only decreased in value. The only people buying these bonds are short sellers. No one appears to be bullish right now. In addition, there is no market floor on these bonds. Some of this is due to their lack of a trading history. But when a chart is solidly trending in one direction, traders will follow the trend until it stops. Then some traders will hold on to their positions to see if the trend is simply taking a break. In other words, this market could go down for awhile.

Fed President Moscow on Inflation

From a speech on February 16:

Taking all of these factors into account, my assessment is that the risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth falling too low. Thus, some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary to address this inflation risk. Of course, whether policy will need to be adjusted and the degree of any adjustment will depend on the data we see in the months to come and how that data influences our forecast of the economy.


Translation: I'm not going to vote for lower rates in the current environment.

Friday, February 16, 2007

The Market's Last Week

Here's a chart of the SPYs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

We're still firmly in the uptrend that started in September. We had two strong rallies this week, followed by two days of consolidation. The last two days of consolidation were on weaker volume, but the markets didn't sell-off. This indicates traders are willing to hold their positions over the weekend. The only negative of the last few days was the decreased volume.

Here's a chart for the QQQQs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

The QQQQs are still mired in a trading range between 42.5 to 45.5. While the QQQQs also rallied, we have three days of decreasing volume. The decreasing volume is always a concern. However, as with the SPYs, traders were willing to take their gains over the weekend, which is bullish for next week.

Here's a chart for the IWNs

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

This is a classic consolidation chart. After making new highs, the IWNs are forming a triangle on lower volume. While we didn't have the same type of gains as the QQQQs or SPYs, we also didn't have any major losses either.

All of these charts are a net positive going into next week. The QQQQs are the weakest because they are still in a trading range, but as with the SPYs and IWNs, QQQQ traders were willing to hold their gains over the weekend.

Housing Starts Plummet 14.3%

From Bloomberg:

Builders in the U.S. started work last month on the fewest number of new homes since August 1997 as a glut of unsold houses and the onset of colder weather discouraged new projects.

Housing starts slumped 14.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.408 million, less than forecast and down from December's 1.643 million rate, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits declined 2.8 percent to a 1.568 million pace.

Treasury yields fell after the figures showed residential construction will remain a drag on the economy until the inventory of unsold homes declines. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers this week that the process may extend through much of the year.

``Housing inventories are still beyond bloated, and starts aren't going to recover in any meaningful way until those inventories come down,'' Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, said before the report. ``I would be cautious about calling an end to the housing slump just yet.''


First -- this news while shocking, shouldn't be. Housing inventories have indeed been bloated for some time. Last month's increase took me by surprise, largely because of the massive amount of overbuilding. It looks like that's coming to an end.

Going forward, this has some really important implications. The most important is construction employment. The blog Calculated Risk has been all over this and done a great job. The link is at the right on the blog roll. I would add two more job areas: professional services and financial services. Here's a chart of each of the preceding areas:

Construction:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Professional Services:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Financial Services:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

We've already started to see cracks in the sub-prime mortgage market. With fewer houses being built, there is less of a need for a sales and financing force. However, I wouldn't expect a big drop for at least a 3-6 months. This means we could start to get a very painful slow bleed in employment with construction lay-offs beginning, followed by a decreasing sales and financing force.

Producer Prices Decrease .6%

From the BLS:

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.6 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed a 0.9-percent advance in December and a 1.8-percent jump in November. At the earlier stages of processing, prices for intermediate goods moved down 0.7 percent compared with a 0.5-percent increase in the prior month. The crude goods index decreased 6.3 percent after rising 2.8 percent in December. (See table A.)


Before we get too excited ---

Energy prices dropped 4.6%. That's because oil prices cratered in mid-January, only to rebound later in the month. We won't see a drop like this unless oil retreats again.

The number ex-food and energy was up .2%. The unadjusted change from a year ago was also up .2%. That's good news.

However -- and Bernanke made this abundantly clear in his Congressional testimony this week -- oil is a big reason for the drop. Remember that oil rebounded from lows in mid-January. In addition, oil is a pretty unstable commodity.

Chrysler Cuts Production: Industrial Production to Follow?

From the AP

The Chrysler Group, which had an operating loss of $1.475 billion in 2006 and expects to show losses through 2007, announced Wednesday that it would eliminate 13,000 positions, including 11,000 production jobs and 2,000 white-collar posts, as it seeks to cut costs and return to profitability in 2008.

Of the production job cuts, 9,000 are in the U.S. and 2,000 are in Canada.

Chrysler, part of Germany-based DaimlerChrysler AG, said Wednesday it plans to close the Newark, Del., assembly plant during the next two years and cut shifts at plants in Warren, Mich., and St. Louis. The company also announced that a parts distribution center which employs 100 workers near Cleveland also will close this year.

On Thursday, company officials said much of the impact would be in southeastern Michigan, where 5,300 people will lose their jobs by 2009.


Yesterday, the Fed released the January Industrial production numbers. They decreased by .5%, largely caused by a big drop in auto production. This plan will go into effect throughout 2007 and probably into 2008. This means another US automaker is scaling back production. Don't be surprised if this hits the industrial production numbers going forward.

I should also add the Ford (F), GM (GM) and Daimler Chrysler (DCX) stocks have all rallied over the last few months, probably in anticipation of these plans working. I have been wondering if these rallies were warranted given the underlying problems of these three companies.

Share

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More